Black Monday

[bull....]

currently enjoying the gains on the us markets, up as i speak and looking QUITE CHEAP to me at present on forward cashflows

http://fortune.com/2017/05/26/stock-...e-tech-stocks/

In another rare expression of bullishness from Shiller, he told CNBC this week that stocks "could go up 50% from here."

WOW im in his camp



https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryanrich/2017/05/09/buffett-low-rates-make-stocks-dirt-cheap/#6d3e5a4f6fba

The take away, as I said yesterday, "stocks are dirt cheap" if you think rates will stay low for longer

wow im in his camp

some famous quotes by another guru

“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” Bernard Baruch

“The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. This cannot be over emphasized.”
“unless you are a short seller or a poet looking for a wealthy spouse, it never pays to be pessimistic.”
“Golden rule number 18- there is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company’s fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.”

peter lynch read his book

[Hoop]

Media Media ....

I've been around this sharemarket game for 40+ years and I've heard all this Media rubbish before....One thing I have found in the past is their strange ability to find Billions of cash picking up the gems after the bear market carnage ...now tell me how they can do this ..obviously selling up their selective so called "cheap" shares they keep on telling the general public, to fund a war chest to spend at the end of a bear market...There are war chests forming now..to distract the more observant until their war chests are full, they ambiguously infer a continuing "no worries" to the general media and let the general media roll the ball from there.

But their indicator charts tells the real story ...eh.......They are saying USA equity market is not cheap, it's significantly overvalued..now higher than 1929.
The two indicators below are measured using different factors but look at the two chart patterns they are almost identical

EDIT: We can't use an excuse that todays sharemarket is fairly valued because of low inflation (1.7%)..In 1928 the inflation rate was -1.7%

Attachment 9129 CAPE 0109207.jpg

[BlackPeter]

I guess it is just so easy to create self fulfilling prophecies. And while everybody knows that what goes up must go down - the only really interesting question is when?

Lets face it - none of the market gurus has a clue when this will happen unless they created the self fulfilling prophecy themselves. But hey - most of them have been correct in predicting 10 to 20 out of the last 2 downturns, so that's not a bad score - is it?

But yes, be careful out there .. the bear will come if we stop to worry.

[Hoop]

Nothing to do with self fulfiling prophecies really is there....There's gloom and doom everywhere after the bottom and the market always seems to claw itself up the wall of worry...

Look at it this way the chances of a sharemarket correction from bull to bear increases as the market climbs up off the bottom...Today its a long way off the bottom (300+%) and its been a long time since the bottom (9.5 years) ..I think the chances have got to the stage of being rather high don't you think BP...

The investor herd is getting restless

Call it self fulfiling prophecy or what name you want to call it..it's a natural (cyclical) process, it is hot-wired into our natural survival instincts before birth we can't fight it..we as an educated intelligent animal species can learn how to delay change but can not stop it...we as an animal society will always go from good times to not so good times and back again..animals sense of change becomes stronger as the good times keep rolling along and vice versa....so maybe it's best to learn how to make the best of both worlds and so time it by preparing for those inevitable cyclical change events rather than be in denial and go extinct fighting it..eh

[Fatboyj]

Black Friday - 24/09/1869
Wall St Crash - 24/10/1929 +60 years
Black Monday - 19/10/1987 +58
Black Wednesday - 16/09/1992 +5
911 market crash - 11/09/2001 +9
Financial crisis - 16/09/2008 +7
Big bang(Trump NK) - 09/2017? +9

Mr Trump has had a respite with Harvey coming in to help distract the issues of his presidency. Soon only one option left. War. The great distracter, the great consolidator against the evil NK. When will it kick off?

The dates up above have arrived. I'm thinking rhetoric will build to the end of the month then boom early Oct we have fireworks. My plan of action is to follow WB and be cash ready by at least 3rd week. Then microwave the popcorn, take the radiation fallout pills and watch a lot of news. I'll buy when you guys say its a good time.

[BlackPeter]

Nothing to do with self fulfiling prophecies really is there....There's gloom and doom everywhere after the bottom and the market always seems to claw itself up the wall of worry...

Look at it this way the chances of a sharemarket correction from bull to bear increases as the market climbs up off the bottom...Today its a long way off the bottom (300+%) and its been a long time since the bottom (9.5 years) ..I think the chances have got to the stage of being rather high don't you think BP...

The investor herd is getting restless

Call it self fulfiling prophecy or what name you want to call it..it's a natural (cyclical) process, it is hot-wired into our natural survival instincts before birth we can't fight it..we as an educated intelligent animal species can learn how to delay change but can not stop it...we as an animal society will always go from good times to not so good times and back again..animals sense of change becomes stronger as the good times keep rolling along and vice versa....so maybe it's best to learn how to make the best of both worlds and so time it by preparing for those inevitable cyclical change events rather than be in denial and go extinct fighting it..eh

Absolutely. I don't doubt that we will have another downturn and I agree that the chance for it happening NOW is increasing every day.

And sure - it might be tomorrow (if the dear leader sends his missile or we have another 9/11 or if the Chinese or Greek banking system crashes or if the UK goes down the gurgler or ....) or it might be next year (what a number of experts currently predict) or it might be later. My point is just - if everybody would have moved to cash when they started to predict these downturns around 2012 ... we all would have lost a lot a lot of money since then (by not being in the market) and yes, the downturn would have been in 2012 (just imagine what happens if everybody sells ...).

Being out of the market can be as expensive (or actually more expensive given that the long term trend is upwards) than being in the market. The choice is up to every individual. Only with hindsight will we know who choose better at the time ...

[Joshuatree]

Media Media ....

I've been around this sharemarket game for 40+ years and I've heard all this Media rubbish before....One thing I have found in the past is their strange ability to find Billions of cash picking up the gems after the bear market carnage ...now tell me how they can do this ..obviously selling up their selective so called "cheap" shares they keep on telling the general public, to fund a war chest to spend at the end of a bear market...There are war chests forming now..to distract the more observant until their war chests are full, they ambiguously infer a continuing "no worries" to the general media and let the general media roll the ball from there.

But their indicator charts tells the real story ...eh.......They are saying USA equity market is not cheap, it's significantly overvalued..now higher than 1929.
The two indicators below are measured using different factors but look at the two chart patterns they are almost identical

EDIT: We can't use an excuse that todays sharemarket is fairly valued because of low inflation (1.7%)..In 1928 the inflation rate was -1.7%

Attachment 9129 CAPE 0109207.jpg

Yes very true Hoop. Like the vampire cannibal squids Goldman Sachs they are totally ruthless about screwing other people legitimately!.

Hows those indicater ducks lining up?. I see Gold having broken through US$1300 oz ($1329.90 atm)is accelerating .

[bull....]

Media Media ....

I've been around this sharemarket game for 40+ years and I've heard all this Media rubbish before....One thing I have found in the past is their strange ability to find Billions of cash picking up the gems after the bear market carnage ...now tell me how they can do this ..obviously selling up their selective so called "cheap" shares they keep on telling the general public, to fund a war chest to spend at the end of a bear market...There are war chests forming now..to distract the more observant until their war chests are full, they ambiguously infer a continuing "no worries" to the general media and let the general media roll the ball from there.

But their indicator charts tells the real story ...eh.......They are saying USA equity market is not cheap, it's significantly overvalued..now higher than 1929.
The two indicators below are measured using different factors but look at the two chart patterns they are almost identical

EDIT: We can't use an excuse that todays sharemarket is fairly valued because of low inflation (1.7%)..In 1928 the inflation rate was -1.7%

Attachment 9129 CAPE 0109207.jpg

nice indicators but im sure buffett doesnt use them, as with indicators usually in hindsight we find most usually never work anyway
With world gdp beginning to rise after largely being stagnant i guess that means company earnings are set to rise even more.

[kiora]

"Margin Call" the movie on Prime seemed pretty real last night.Give's one real confidence in the Financial Gurus:NOT !

[bull....]

popped above the top of the range 2480 see what happens if it holds range implies impulse move to 2540- 60 ? dyor