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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #3521
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    "Thirty years ago, on Friday, September 18, 1987, the long-standing NZX benchmark index reached an all-time high of 3968.89. This capital index, which is now called the S&P/NZX 50 Index, has never returned to this level and is still 8 per cent below its 1987 high." -

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11922930

    "The good news is that most of the negative characteristics of the 1980s - poor quality IPOs, irrational takeovers and debt-fuelled overseas purchases - don't exist today, although companies continue to emphasise normalised or adjusted earnings, instead of figures that are fully compliant with accounting standards."

  2. #3522
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    There are always jitters around election time and this year is no different. Perhaps more so than other years.

    The added spice is that there is a likely change of govt to occur (greater than 50% but not a forgone conclusion). There will be a lot of profit taking in the market, especially this week coming as many will look to position themselves out of the market before the result. Those astute ones might see a few opportunities out there too.

  3. #3523
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    Quote Originally Posted by value_investor View Post
    There are always jitters around election time and this year is no different. Perhaps more so than other years.

    The added spice is that there is a likely change of govt to occur (greater than 50% but not a forgone conclusion). There will be a lot of profit taking in the market, especially this week coming as many will look to position themselves out of the market before the result. Those astute ones might see a few opportunities out there too.
    So very true... However it is a stock standard statement issued always during these times..

    Have you any information you wish to depart ???

    A question ??
    Last edited by janner; 16-09-2017 at 10:42 PM.

  4. #3524
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    So very true... However it is a stock standard statement issued always during these times..

    Have you any information you wish to depart ???

    A question ??
    The tax plan of Labour on the retirement stocks would be of great detriment. The idea of a CGT, extension of the brightline test on buyers makes them less desirable so selling could be an issue.

    The retirement stocks are generally heavily geared due to their capital intensive nature which doesn't help margins either so I imagine a few investors being very nervous. If you have a look at OCA, SUM, ARV, RYM, MET in the past week or month they have all fallen and will may continue too.

    This normally means the market reacts as sheep, profit taking happens somewhere (ie retirement stocks), others have second thoughts and also take theirs with them. Case in point ATM falling about 4% from Tuesday onwards.

    Its amazing what a bit of sensationalist journalism can also do on fragile mum and dad investors too! Some of the election coverage has been a shocker.
    Last edited by value_investor; 17-09-2017 at 08:08 AM.

  5. #3525
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    Value_investor .....some on here don't like that term sheep or sheepies

    Anyway I don't think mum and dad investors (another horrible generic term) react to much of what they read in the papers. I would hazard a guess the majority just let their investments ride and don't sit down every day and review their portfolio and think shall I sell or hold or buy.

    And don't forget that many of these mum and dad investors are lead by what guru analysts / brokers say ....they can be just as sensational as the media in their 'reporting'. even worse have you seen how a 'sensational' broker comment is picked up in the media and made more 'sensational'
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #3526
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    Quote Originally Posted by value_investor View Post
    The tax plan of Labour on the retirement stocks would be of great detriment. The idea of a CGT, extension of the brightline test on buyers makes them less desirable so selling could be an issue.....
    If Labour get in for a second term with a detailed tax change policy, what would be the effect on the retirement stocks?

    Most retirement village companies intend to keep their real estate for a long time, so I don't think brightline tests would be relevant. Of more relevance would be the tax ruling in relation to ORAs (occupation rights.) Afaik, so far Labour have not said that they intend to over-rule that ruling. Would a change in relation to ORAs become part of future policy of a Labour government, I do not know. If it were, then I think a Labour government may somehow need to provide more funding in some other way to meet the demand for care beds cuurently being provided by the companies relying on profits from the sale and resale of ORAs.

    Even if a future Labour Government introduced policies which would result in a fall in real estate values (to more affordable valuations). Medium to long term that would mean that future development costs would be cheaper (not as much capital would be needed to buy land to develop.) The retirement companies are still in growth phase, with much land still needed for development to cater for upcoming tsunami of retiring boomers!

  7. #3527
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    class actions are all being launched against retirement village operators in australia

    http://levittrobinson.com/class-acti...-class-action/

    http://www.skynews.com.au/business/b...ss-action.html

    i would imagine retirement village stocks would be caught in the tax net under labour by rule change
    Last edited by bull....; 17-09-2017 at 03:59 PM.
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #3528
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    Capital gain will not be happening soon..if so..will take years to be implanted

    The Green Party wants a capital gains tax in the next term of government and will put that on the table in coalition negotiations with Labour, leader James Shaw says.
    He told Sunday's Q&A programme that was one of a number of key items the party wanted when he received Labour leader Jacinda Ardern's first call if she had the opportunity to form a government after next weekend's election.
    "In the same way that every coalition involves policies from both partners we've got to negotiate what a coalition agreement would look like but there are a couple of things that I think we would like to push them on - one is the area of a capital gains tax excluding the family home," he said.
    "Because we do have a real sense of urgency around the housing crisis."
    Mr Shaw's revelation came just days after Ms Ardern backed down on her captain's call to introduce a CGT in her first term if her tax working group suggested one. She went back to the party's former position to take the recommendations to the electorate.
    The party's policy, released this week, includes a timeline for the tax working group including passing legislation in 2021 but not having it come into effect until April 2021, after the next election.
    "The thing I pushed out is the time it takes effect because that then means I can balance both the urgency I feel with the feedback the public gave me," Ms Ardern said.
    But if Labour wants to form a coalition with New Zealand First, leader Winston Peters said a capital gains tax would need to be off the table.
    "It's very clear, it's off the table. The two factors are it doesn't work and the second thing is there's no fairness if you haven't got capital losses consideration as well," Mr Peters told Q&A.

  9. #3529
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    WOW S&P at 2500 and Dow above 22,000. When is this Black Monday coming?

  10. #3530
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    WOW S&P at 2500 and Dow above 22,000. When is this Black Monday coming?
    Tomorrow

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