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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #3631
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    Black Thursday perhaps??

    A lot of negative sentiment including sell offs in some of the larger stocks. Perhaps the left wing government actually getting stuff done (perception is key) and the high NZD affecting a few stocks.

    For the first time in a bit I sense less calm in the air..

  2. #3632
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    I've copied this in it's entirety from a Hot Copper Gold mining (RSG) thread. Quite a thought provoking, salient and sober read IMO, so being a lazy Saturday afternoon, thought I would post it here.

    " Everyone has there own take on markets and that's what makes them so interesting.

    You're happy to buy the stocks that are trending on social media and there is no easier than just sticking to the most talked about stocks on Hot Copper. Ready made winners that sit right there on the left hand side of your HC page (maybe not all. Noticed MUS not travelling so well).

    I do the swim thru at Rottnest Island every year that I get a chance. My philosophy is there are about 800 to 1000 competitors so I'm already at long odds of being eaten by a shark. I wouldn't feel so comfortable taking the same swim alone every day. So I understand what you and other people are doing but it's not investing. Good investing is about looking out over the ocean of listed companies and going for that swim, with no fear of sharks.

    People really don't understand that we are well and truly deep into a fat ugly bubble.

    If you don't believe me, read the pre-election words of Donald Trump

    " believe me WE ARE IN A BUBBLE right now and the only thing that looks good is the stock market but if you raise interest rates, even a little bit, that's going to come CRASHING DOWN............... WE ARE IN A BIG FAT UGLY BUBBLE and we better be awfully careful and we have a Fed that's doing political things.....this Janet Yellen, of the Fed....the Fed is doing political ....by keeping interest rates at this level and believe me the day Obama goes off and he leaves and he goes out to the golf course for the rest of his life to play golf when they raise interest rates you are going to see some very bad things happen...."

    Or do a search for amazon.com on the Nasdaq website.

    Amazon traded at an all time high of $1,135/share on Wednesday. Yes you are reading that right you have to pay over a thousand dollars for one share in Amazon.

    The consensus recommendation on the Nasdaq website from 18 analyst firms on Amazon is a strong buy.

    This stock has risen 3200% in 9 years since its post GFC low of $35 in Nov 2008. That's like about 350% per year!!

    I understand that it might have a good business model that's disrupting an old business model around the way that we buy stuff but in the end its profitability still depends on some person at the end of a keyboard or phone clicking the buy button on the purchase of a good or service. Amazon is not immune to people tightening their wallets, just like any other business.

    The stock has never paid a dividend and in the quarter just ended (Sept 2017) earned its investors a staggering 50cents/share. On an annualised basis that converts to a PE ratio of 556.5. What does that mean. That means based on Sept quarter earnings it would take 556.5 years or 2,226 quarters of earnings to equal the company's current market value.

    Compare that to RSG's 2017 earnings result of 18.61cents/share (fully diluted) or PE ratio of 5.8 on todays price.

    Well there are risk and there are risks in markets, you take your pick!!

    When analyst are putting strong buy recommendations on stocks that have reached all time highs, that trade on ridiculous PE ratios, that have already risen 3200% in 9 years and that have revenue based on consumer spending in a rising interest rate environment in the US then you know you are on very very shaky ground. Add to this speculative gold stocks that are now worth billions in Canada without a hole being drilled in the ground and booming crypto currencies whose only real value metric could only ever be based on the cost of creating a unit of crypto currency plus a modest premium for their utility and uniqueness over conventional digital currencies and while we are at it why not add in the other latest social media bubble which is a bunch of overvalued lithium miners that are at the mercy of opaque off-take agreements, signed with cartels of downstream battery product producers who themselves will make their money on the rising volume and falling price of LCE, whilst the ASX lithium miners they are now enslaving through the off-take agreements will see declining prices for their LiO2 concentrates as LCE-linked prices fall in response to batteries getting cheaper as their usage increases and more and more mine supply coming online plus a myriad of teething problems with the new mines that investors never factor in. Remember how well GBG ramped up their magnetite mine near Geraldton during the iron ore price boom.....lol

    No wonder gold stocks have had their guts sucked out of their backsides when the stock pushers are pushing more and more people into these bubbles just like the metro attendants in downtown Tokyo shove people onto trains to squeeze them in evermore tightly.

    The newcomers who think they are very clever riding the bubble and the social media trending bubble stories better make sure they are making fantastic coin right now because this madness can't last forever.

    Trump might be promising everyone a merry Christmas in his la la land where debt keeps ballooning and nobody pays a cent of taxes but I'm sure everyone in government knows that with out taxes your ballooning debt is just another bubble and the same people in la la land riding this bubble into the stratosphere will be the one's that fall the furthest and no doubt the people that will be catching the bargains at the bottom will be the smart money that will have rotated out before the fall. Just read that CME are now offering futures on FANG and bitcoin. Here comes the next big short. Esh ""
    Last edited by dubya; 11-11-2017 at 01:47 PM.

  3. #3633
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    There is a lot of incredible info from some uncredible sources there that I would like to research before investing any credence in those words.

  4. #3634
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    Locally, do you guys think Labour's policies will be inflationary or cause recession? Specifically I'm wondering about the increases to minimum wage. My perception is that if companies can handle it, it will cause inflation. If they can't, it will cause recession.

    My feeling is that with the remnants of the rock star economy, companies will be ok, but I think it depends what else the Labour government does to damage companies and peoples savings (read house prices).

  5. #3635
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    In reality Labour or National, there's very little difference to the real workings of business. Those who complain are most likely whining about tax loop holes being minimised, hence the Panama papers and now the Paradise papers disclosures. Real businesses operate despite what puppets are in residence. If you want a broad view look globally... That saying about America sneezing and NZ catching the flu... All too true.
    Nervousness in the market... Look and observe... Carefully

  6. #3636
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    MSCI NEW ZEALAND INDEX microcap november review

    additions
    bgr
    cbl
    oca
    san
    tilt
    whs

    deleted
    pushpay
    synlait

    fph added to an index and cen also added
    one step ahead of the herd

  7. #3637
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    markets like the new fed chairman - they have raced to new highs today , looks like the status quo to be maintained with finanacial deregulation added in very bullish when added to tax cuts 2018 could be another good yr.

    another 20% yr next yr and it be close to my 30000 target
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #3638
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    24000 less than 6000 pts to go next yr looking good tax cuts , growing earnings . deregulation another 20% yr get us there
    one step ahead of the herd

  9. #3639
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    Yes this time it's different, tulips anyone!.

  10. #3640
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    Interesting, I can remember a big sell off on the night of the election when it looked like D Trump would win in the US. Since then and his subsequent election the Dow has gone from 17,000 to 24,000 in one year. that is a gain of 41.17%. Incredible.

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