Black Monday

[noodles]

I doubt whether your average retail investor running a profit or a paper loss(Big or Small) would worry about the current trend, what will the trend be in 5 years time? Most would be happy to just keep collecting dividends unless they need their money right now, I wouldn't be foolish enough to realise my big paper losses at this time( I've learnt my lesson big time doing that in the past)

We have almost the opposite viewpoint. Firstly, I wouldn't let my paper losses get big at all as I want to preserve capital. I sell my losers because I don't think I'm smarter than the market. History tells us that the retail investors exit the markets at the worst possible time. I am very concerned that we are moving into a bear market. I don't want to endure the financial and emotional capital loss of a 2 year bear market.

I'm not calling a bear yet, but I'm watching very carefully.

[arc]

Cloggs: Thanks, good find, the writer certainly takes the shotgun approach to coverage, no depth but plenty of splatter.

From that article .. "On Wednesday August 19th, the minutes from the Fed’s latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting held at the end of July were due out."

It fits within the timeframe

Meeting end of July
Selldown appears to have started August 4-5-6-7?
Big selldowns August 11
Chinese devalue their currency August 12 (how strange)
Results of the July meeting announcement due for release August 19
Market-correction Escalates Friday 21, (it already existed but mom and pop were not aware)

Throw into the mix the slow down on gold mining 2 years ago, the drop in metals/iron/minerals, the volatile price of oil.. and the rest of the bucket list.

Skid: A motorbike tour, sounds good. I read an article a month or so ago on bike trails and organized tours through Asia, there was some guy here in NZ that organises the tour. I must do that one day soon... Would also love to do the Across America tour.

Denis: 2 year Bear, 2 year recovery 2 more years to get back to the present stock prices... IF they get back to these prices. The last actual bear was 2007-2008, 2011 was only a correction. 2008 --- 2015 7 long years. And companies do stop paying dividends when the price reaches some "psychologically disturbing level" for the directors. I expect most will stop if we see 30%+ drop in the next couple of months




I am concerned that both AIR and AIA have both FAILED TO LAUNCH, and yet people think this is some sort of recovery??.

[Daytr]

Someone who claims to be an economist & yet didn't know who Ayn Rand was or her influence on Greenspan, let alone that it wasn't Greenspan that introduced quantitative easing... I'm not an economist, but I used to edit bank economist's publications for a bit of a reality check, before they sent it out to clients. Some are much better than others naturally & I found the ones that had some real world experience in markets were typically far more relevant than the ones who wrote from their book lined office. It can depend of course on how macro the subject is.

As an economist I have to markedly differ from the somewhat ignorant rhubarb above, obviously written by people who are neither economists nor historians! I'll keep it short and simple.

(a) you can only really analyse economic history since 1945 since it is only since then that Keynesianism has held sway and governments (developed countries, most of them) and central bankers have understood what is going on. Friedmanism is the more recent approach used to conquer inflation and use interest rates and restrict aggregate demand.

(b) what's happening in stockmarkets is only ONE of the factors that Central Banks analyse before moving. Other factors such as inflation, economic growth, the balance of payments on current account, the state of employment, the various factor inputs known as "land" and the effect of current technological change.

"Bull" needs to go back to school.

[skid]

OK, well I happen to have a University degree in Economics and have learned enough about the 'discipline' to know that if you line up a dozen economists in a row they will all (whether deliberate or not) point in many, many different directions.

In itself, economics is usually found wanting..needing another discipline or two (finance, political science, a social science such anthropology, psychology or philosophy, even mathematics) to find its feet on Planet Earth well enough to offer a balanced worldview.

That's just my opinion.

and a good one at that ,BC

[skid]

Someone who claims to be an economist & yet didn't know who Ayn Rand was or her influence on Greenspan, let alone that it wasn't Greenspan that introduced quantitative easing... I'm not an economist, but I used to edit bank economist's publications for a bit of a reality check, before they sent it out to clients. Some are much better than others naturally & I found the ones that had some real world experience in markets were typically far more relevant than the ones who wrote from their book lined office. It can depend of course on how macro the subject is.

Which eventually lead to the Asian crises(a long story,with many similarities to now in terms of the powerful money men making speculative and risky investments (in Asia)and causing bubbles because they were given the power to do so(by the US gov as Clinton was up to his neck in the Monica Lewenski scandal.)--Greenspan was at the helm--A long storey that had a big influence on how China drastically changed its economic policies.

just like the merchant bank bailouts in the last crises(gotta do something with that dosh)

[Daytr]

Another big night for oil, up 7-8% overnight!
Oil has now rallied 27% in 3 days, the biggest rally since the 1st gulf war!
Perhaps another Bush is going to take the Whitehouse....
Saudis say they are willing to talk to producers. I'm not sure what that means exactly, but the market read it as positive.
Personally I think this is an opportunity to short oil again, however looking at the chart $60 Brent can't be ruled out, but if we get there I will; be loading up short. Put in a small short posi this morning.
Interestingly even though oil markets have surged, equity markets were still down.

[silverblizzard888]

Another big night for oil, up 7-8% overnight!
Oil has now rallied 27% in 3 days, the biggest rally since the 1st gulf war!
Perhaps another Bush is going to take the Whitehouse....
Saudis say they are willing to talk to producers. I'm not sure what that means exactly, but the market read it as positive.
Personally I think this is an opportunity to short oil again, however looking at the chart $60 Brent can't be ruled out, but if we get there I will; be loading up short. Put in a small short posi this morning.
Interestingly even though oil markets have surged, equity markets were still down.

Hi Dayr I was wondering what service you are using to put you shorting order for oil.

[Daytr]

CMC Markets, they are the best I have come across for trading CFDs.

Hi Dayr I was wondering what service you are using to put you shorting order for oil.

[minimoke]

So much angst, so much analysis on this thread. Unlike the many happy investors in the Minimoke RNG Stock Picker which is proving to be not only very profitable but also bullet proof. Just checked out my position on the NZ Stock Picking competition and I'm up more than 2% from the middle of August position. Cant complain about that.

[Daytr]

Nice one Mini, but there has been no angst if you have been shorting the DOW & energy stocks since early this year and made a crapola load! ;-)
NZX is in the main a different kettle of fish and is somewhat insulated from some of the macro stuff happening overseas, unless you are talking about commodity based investments. The downturn there will filter through to other NZ companies as the spending and growth in the economy contracts. As the government seems hell bent on building roads & houses, construction and civil companies I would have thought re pretty good place to be, although Fletchers have proven you can even stuff up when given a gift horse.