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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #3991
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    Between 3:30 and 4:00 of the trading day, the DJIA went down by 400 points which is insane. Not sure if these computers trigger stop losses which trigger chains. Then you have margin debt and margin calls. I read margin debt is at all time times.

    I'm not sure where we go from here but just keep in mind this is not a crash yet. We are now at the value it was at, at the end of November. A few calling this one a 'flash crash'. The market is coming back from being overvalued to fairly valued. This is for now a reversion to the mean.

  2. #3992
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    Dow is following other markets. Best performing markets in 2016 and 2017 are having sell-off as well as volatility.

    Performance of some Asian Pacific markets

    The Shenzhen Composite Index has dropped by more than 20% from its November high. Pakistan Stock Exchange provided returns of a stunning 46% in 2016.On May 2017, the benchmark KSE-100 index hit all time high. Now it has dropped by more than 10%. In my opinion, bull market has ended in over extended markets like above two and overlooked markets should emerge as bull markets in 2018.

    It seems US crude oil is heading back into the $50s and USD is going to strength further. Speculators and other market participants have lost interest on commodities and bit coin as well due to unpredictable nature and losses made by some of them recently. They are unwinding positions to avoid further losses.

    Where will have next best opportunities after this sell-off? Which sectors will have more demand?
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 09-02-2018 at 09:18 PM.

  3. #3993
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    My guess is airlines/aging/health/retirement/electricity.
    All these should have good profits,increased demand etc
    Cheaper oil will mean more profit for airlines and the aging population travel.
    I have not seen anyone cancel travel plans due to what I regard as an irrational sell off by Lemmings.
    Next week I will consider buying back into AirNewZealand.
    Bought some flights with them last week during the 48 hour sale.I love travelling with them(economy class,the works and choosing good seats)

  4. #3994
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    Some are reporting that the increased volatility in the markets, especially since Tuesday is due to the breakdown of the sell VIX trade and subsequent liquidation of a couple of leveraged ETFs that are focussed on this trade.

    Volatility has mainly been confined to equity markets, not so much in others - in fact there’s starting to be a flight to quality - yields are down across multiple maturities of US treasuries

  5. #3995
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Hands up who was actually involved in 87, or the Dot Bomb, or GFC, and what lessons you learnt and will apply now if it unfolds again? I share my lessons every time I mention tightly managing capital, trading momentum and using the charts to monitor sentiment and pick exits and entries.
    I certainly went through the GFC. Essentially sold nothing, used the fact it existed to buy into some good long termers and top up others. The strategy paid off of course (with the benefit now of hindsight).

    With no intention of selling any existing shares in the foreseeable future, the capital worth of my holdings is no more than a curiosity as my entire holdings (bar one small speculative holding) are dividend based.

    Just cannot see any market volatility affecting my dividend income stream. If the stock market plummets, which I think is most unlikely, I will be once again presented with the best across-the-board buying opportunity I've had for a long time.

  6. #3996
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post
    I certainly went through the GFC. Essentially sold nothing, used the fact it existed to buy into some good long termers and top up others. The strategy paid off of course (with the benefit now of hindsight).

    With no intention of selling any existing shares in the foreseeable future, the capital worth of my holdings is no more than a curiosity as my entire holdings (bar one small speculative holding) are dividend based.

    Just cannot see any market volatility affecting my dividend income stream. If the stock market plummets, which I think is most unlikely, I will be once again presented with the best across-the-board buying opportunity I've had for a long time.
    Sage advice [as usual].
    Very much my thoughts too.
    Last edited by percy; 10-02-2018 at 06:53 AM.

  7. #3997
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    So far the NZX is not in a correction, as it is only down 4.3% since its Jan high, compared to the US markets which are down 10.2% from their highs,sorry to disappoint the naysayers.

  8. #3998
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    Hi Vaygor1.

    Just curious, if you never sell any shares, where do you get the new funds to take advantage of the new buying opportunities, or are they funds you have invested elsewhere?

  9. #3999
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    Quote Originally Posted by BDL View Post
    Hi Vaygor1.

    Just curious, if you never sell any shares, where do you get the new funds to take advantage of the new buying opportunities, or are they funds you have invested elsewhere?
    Other sources of income (salary, dividends etc) plus cash reserves I'm guessing?

  10. #4000
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    .

    Not all of us have loads of cash sitting around or want to allocate more funds to stocks to buy the "bargains" later. Judicious trimming, selling dogs,(yes having the cajoles to crystallise a loss), taking some profits and building as much cash as you need to take advantage later. is better than doing nothing and staying in a numb fog. So if anyone hasn't reviewed and balanced and rebalanced their portfolio this volatility is a good catalyst to do so.

    On CNBC .USA has re $20trillion in debt and China have bought re $6trillion of it in govt bonds over the years. They dont want to buy anymore. So how does this all unwind in an orderly way?. Another domino is the many $trillions invested in ETF's in the last year or so, what happens when/if there is a run to the exits on these ?

    Bull and i saw the Dow range up to 800-1000 points in 10 minutes a few days ago. ALGORHYTMS ARE DETECTING AND FOLLOWING MOMENTUM. Manipulation is here to stay at our expense. Volatility is here for awhile.

    Most/all of the big mkts are down 10-12% its uncannily synchronised.

    Inflation is starting to rise, watch the USA 10 year bond yields.

    Opportunities are always out there in these volatile times to buy stocks which overrun on the downside I bought a couple in the last 2 days for my trading portfolio. Thyme will tell.

    There is more fake news out there manipulating sectors eg the lithium sector got hammered recently on misinformation about imminent large lithium production increases.

    I hope its a healthy correction. Over half of the NZX is overseas money. Good yield stocks in sectors in strong cycles protect/cushion ones portfolio

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