Black Monday

[arc]

Seems a lot of people are "Seriously Shorting" the market.
I personally dont like the look of it. The Chartists amoungst you folk will see the obvious peaks and apparent-but-false supports hovering around $2:00 which evaporated resulting in $1:00 -$1:50 range

A view from 2002-2015 from the perspective of AIR, and shared by many many other companies.



The double headed peak has already passed.
Are any of you big players here honestly not shorting the market at the moment?.

[nextbigthing]

You mean stocks like Woolworths, ANZ Bank and Telstra? Good businesses, pay good dividends, recession proof, etc. But NEVER confuse a good company with a good investment! If you were a TLS, ANZ or WOW holder you would be sitting on shares that are the same price as back in 2000 (TLS) and 2006 (WOW and ANZ) (with all going lower once again during this bear market). Buy and Hold and Pray is not how you make money. Making intelligent decisions about what to invest in, how long to hold for, and when to sell is how you manage investments for the optimum return. Good luck Couta - maybe in another 10-15 years your investments "may" come right.

To be fair though KW, doesn't that just simply prove the need for sufficient diversification in Coutas strategy, in which case you could probably pick three stocks that would've also blitzed the market in that portfolio?

[h2so4]

[QUOTE=KW;589457]You mean stocks like Woolworths, ANZ Bank and Telstra? Good businesses, pay good dividends, recession proof, etc. But NEVER confuse a good company with a good investment! If you were a TLS, ANZ or WOW holder you would be sitting on shares that are the same price as back in 2000 (TLS) and 2006 (WOW and ANZ) (with all going lower once again during this bear market). Buy and Hold and Pray is not how you make money. Making intelligent decisions about what to invest in, how long to hold for, and when to sell is how you manage investments for the optimum return. Good luck Couta - maybe in another 10-15 years your investments "may" come right.


Amen!!!!!!

[Corleone]

You mean stocks like Woolworths, ANZ Bank and Telstra? Good businesses, pay good dividends, recession proof, etc. But NEVER confuse a good company with a good investment! If you were a TLS, ANZ or WOW holder you would be sitting on shares that are the same price as back in 2000 (TLS) and 2006 (WOW and ANZ) (with all going lower once again during this bear market). Buy and Hold and Pray is not how you make money. Making intelligent decisions about what to invest in, how long to hold for, and when to sell is how you manage investments for the optimum return. Good luck Couta - maybe in another 10-15 years your investments "may" come right.

Attachment 7570Attachment 7569Attachment 7571

Well Said KW. In early 2007 I naively walked off the street into NZ's most reputable stock brokers/ financial planners and handed them 40K to weave their magic. 8 + years on only 1 of the 7 stocks have recovered and made a profit. These are some big names often trumpeted as solid reliable earners on these forums (TEM, GMT, WPL, IFT, cant recall the others). I have made some decent headway recovering my losses by selling at a loss and reinvesting after doing my own research.

The strategy of buy and hold forever or 'wait it out' would have resulted in pure loss for me, money down the drain, I dont see these stocks reaching those levels again in the next 5 years. The opportunity cost on real estate or the term deposits of the mid 00's doesnt bare thinking about. Lessons learnt, hope it helps others.

[noodles]

Thanks for that, where did you come by this info? Would be interested to know more about what products specifically get stored.

If it is in company reports/presentations my bad I thought I looked through these.

Andy Borland was asked this question in the recent analyst conference call.

Other than that, I wouldn't know any more than what was in their IPO investment statement.

[Bobcat.]

Buy on the way up, sell on the way down! Why? Because of momentum.

It sounds simple - so why do we find it so difficult to do? I think it's mainly psychological. We love money to the extent that we are tempted to :

a) buy into stocks that are cheaper today than they were yesterday (looking for bargains); and
b) hesitate to sell stocks if we could've reaped more selling them yesterday.

It's the pride and greed within that work against us - in that sense we can be our own worst enemies.

Reality Check: If a stock's price is trending upward, it's much more likely that tomorrow it will be higher still. The converse is also true for stock prices trending downward - almost certainly lower tomorrow. When we ignore the trend and instead try to pick tops and bottoms, whilst self-satisfying on the very odd occasion when we get it right(!), it is not only a grubby business but risk prone and costly.

Solution: surf the momentum, up and down. Where it's difficult to gauge momentum, put in a stop loss to preserve capital. It's better to cut your losses (or profit take, if it's a trailing stop) than to rue the day that you never sold when clearly there had been a momentum/trend shift to the downside (e.g. PEB). Both Fundamental Analysis and Chart Technical Analysis help determine good entry/exit points (i.e. by improving the risk/reward ratio)...but let's not forget that the trend is our friend - show some loyalty.

[James108]

If you subscribe to Buffet/Ben Grahams investment philosophy you do not sell because the share price is down. Although often the share price may be down because something fundamentally changed about the business, in which case it may be a good idea to sell.

I am surprised so many of you do not follow the value based approach.

[Traderx]

Buy on the way up, sell on the way down! Why? Because of momentum.

It sounds simple - so why do we find it so difficult to do? I think it's mainly psychological. We love money to the extent that we are tempted to :

a) buy into stocks that are cheaper today than they were yesterday (looking for bargains); and
b) hesitate to sell stocks if we could've reaped more selling them yesterday.

It's the pride and greed within that work against us - in that sense we can be our own worst enemies.

Reality Check: If a stock's price is trending upward, it's much more likely that tomorrow it will be higher still. The converse is also true for stock prices trending downward - almost certainly lower tomorrow. When we ignore the trend and instead try to pick tops and bottoms, whilst self-satisfying on the very odd occasion when we get it right(!), it is not only a grubby business but risk prone and costly.

Solution: surf the momentum, up and down. Where it's difficult to gauge momentum, put in a stop loss to preserve capital. It's better to cut your losses (or profit take, if it's a trailing stop) than to rue the day that you never sold when clearly there had been a momentum/trend shift to the downside (e.g. PEB). Both Fundamental Analysis and Chart Technical Analysis help determine good entry/exit points (i.e. by improving the risk/reward ratio)...but let's not forget that the trend is our friend - show some loyalty.

I would love to see those espousing trading systems on here (if you can call them that) to post all their trades as they happen so we can judge their expertise (after tax and trading costs) vs actual investors.

[Nasi Goreng]

The above examples are of companies that one would be likely to buy and hold for the long term - I am illustrating that the concept of "long term" might be very long indeed.

Personally, I take the approach that no matter how diversified you are, there is no place for loss making stocks in your portfolio.

Something else that I take from this is that to lose $100k in one stock means you either have a large portfolio or you were not well diversified in the first place. I don't like to keep choosing Couta's examples but he does put himself out there so hopefully doesn't mind the discussion.

For me that would be a massive chunk of my portfolio and I can't imagine myself ever putting so much on the line on one company no matter how good the prospects look. I typically have about 8-12 stocks, half of which are international. I do consider my portfolio to be buy and hold although if the circumstances change, I'm not opposed to selling. For those 8-12 stocks, I don't like any of them getting above 12% of total portfolio although that does sometimes happen and its more of a guideline than a firm rule. I'm not suggesting this is the way to go but for me, its something I feel comfortable with and allows me to focus on their results and forecasts.

[Nasi Goreng]

I would love to see those espousing trading systems on here (if you can call them that) to post all their trades as they happen so we can judge their expertise (after tax and trading costs) vs actual investors.

There are not too many who post here who air their dirty laundry.