Black Monday

[blobbles]

Maui wont last that long without more holes being drilled or without ongoing investment into the platforms which who in their right mind would do knowing its not going to be able to tap more holes in future? It's gas producing not oil so rather short sighted of the government to stop all offshore drilling when gas is a good alternative that will need to come from elsewhere, I wonder how expensive it will become to heat our house with gas central heating in 10 years? Companies wont come to NZ to drill while the current permits lapse either, why would they invest in a country that has made it clear they are not supported? The effects of this decision are far greater reaching downstream than anyone really understands and ultimately will impact on every NZ family using gas for hot water and heating, BBQ's and of course the need for the government to make up the half billion dollar fiscal hole left behind even before considering compounding effects of support industry..... sad day for NZ

The industry that supports oil and gas is huge and not just the big companies that will shut up shop, engineering, labour supply, training and many others will suffer and the hardest hit will be Taranaki but the economy as a whole will suffer more than just the 500 million paid in royalties and tax......

You are all thinking about "the economic output of xyz industry", but none of you are considering the economic impact of not acting on climate change. Sea levels are now rising at 3.2mm a year and the trend is increasing https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/. That could put a lot of NZ coastal cities under water really quickly and flood many areas which are flood prone/low lying. Arguments of "but it will destroy an industry" which makes up only 2-3% of our economy have to be thought of in this context. You cannot viably bury your head in the sand thinking about one side of the equation. In basic terms - we cannot be upset that fuel for BBQs are going to cost more when industries which support 90% of our economy are in crisis. We need to be forward thinking rational actors who see problems, prioritise them and cut those which threaten the majority of our future.

As a result of this impending emergency, we (even arguably right wing National saw it) have signed up to international agreements to limit our emissions, and if we don't limit our emissions, we pay big time: http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/...t-westpac.html. In the context of that Westpac report and many others indicating the economic impact of climate change, the impact of inaction or of accelerating our GHG emissions is huge. So signalling intent to remove dirty energy from our energy makeup is just what is needed right now. Yes, we don't want future exploration or pumping of oil because this will directly affect our bottom line climate pledges which will cost us billions in the future. Expensive hot water/heating/BBQs will encourage people to switch to electric, which is fantastic in NZ as our current and future energy requirements can be easily met with renewables.

And I don't agree, yet, that this government is completely sabotaging industries without a plan. Hopefully they will put NZ on a path of encouraging investment in clean tech and future tech which will ensure NZs future is bright. If their plans do not point in this direction, then I completely agree that they have f'ed us. But its too early to say yet as all policy is not decided in the first 6 months of governing. Looking back on Nationals plans, I can't say they thought of the future very hard. It seemed more like they just wanted to expand NZs current operations despite their environmental impact (more roads/more dairy/more drilling for oil/gas). What they should have been doing is serious investments in future tech and clean tech in niche markets. We need to look to the Xeros/FPHs and invest in industries like renewables/robotics/AI/meat and milk substitutes (sunfed meats as an example), if we really want to help our economy long term. The future for NZ cannot be oil and gas.

[blobbles]

PS, a good example of NZ leading the way is the one I came across the other day. The R programming language which was created by professors in the University of Auckland and is supported by Microsoft for their PowerBI product. In the future, given the right push, this language could easily form the foundation of automated trend and predictive AI products leveraged by NZ companies. There is currently very little work going on in this field in NZ industries/businesses, which should scare everyone. We have some fantastic people in NZ creating amazing stuff out of our universities, but it all goes overseas as successive NZ governments fail to think of the future. Just look at this: https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/about/...elligence.html. We could be at the forefront of HCI modelling, but who picks up the ball and runs with it? Where is the support? The Calahan institute IMO does not go far enough. Sometimes government NEEDs to pick/fund/create winners.

[workingdad]

You are all thinking about "the economic output of xyz industry", but none of you are considering the economic impact of not acting on climate change. Sea levels are now rising at 3.2mm a year and the trend is increasing https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/. That could put a lot of NZ coastal cities under water really quickly and flood many areas which are flood prone/low lying. Arguments of "but it will destroy an industry" which makes up only 2-3% of our economy have to be thought of in this context. You cannot viably bury your head in the sand thinking about one side of the equation. In basic terms - we cannot be upset that fuel for BBQs are going to cost more when industries which support 90% of our economy are in crisis. We need to be forward thinking rational actors who see problems, prioritise them and cut those which threaten the majority of our future.

As a result of this impending emergency, we (even arguably right wing National saw it) have signed up to international agreements to limit our emissions, and if we don't limit our emissions, we pay big time: http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/...t-westpac.html. In the context of that Westpac report and many others indicating the economic impact of climate change, the impact of inaction or of accelerating our GHG emissions is huge. So signalling intent to remove dirty energy from our energy makeup is just what is needed right now. Yes, we don't want future exploration or pumping of oil because this will directly affect our bottom line climate pledges which will cost us billions in the future. Expensive hot water/heating/BBQs will encourage people to switch to electric, which is fantastic in NZ as our current and future energy requirements can be easily met with renewables.

And I don't agree, yet, that this government is completely sabotaging industries without a plan. Hopefully they will put NZ on a path of encouraging investment in clean tech and future tech which will ensure NZs future is bright. If their plans do not point in this direction, then I completely agree that they have f'ed us. But its too early to say yet as all policy is not decided in the first 6 months of governing. Looking back on Nationals plans, I can't say they thought of the future very hard. It seemed more like they just wanted to expand NZs current operations despite their environmental impact (more roads/more dairy/more drilling for oil/gas). What they should have been doing is serious investments in future tech and clean tech in niche markets. We need to look to the Xeros/FPHs and invest in industries like renewables/robotics/AI/meat and milk substitutes (sunfed meats as an example), if we really want to help our economy long term. The future for NZ cannot be oil and gas.

Doing something about climate change needs to benefit climate change and implemented with careful thought and consideration not some knee jerk reaction just so they can be seen to be doing something for the sake of doing something, a considered approach with appropriate mitigation controls. Reducing the reliance on say 20% of our power from gas when an alternate is in place. How is importing the same product going to improve climate change? Getting it here results in more fossil fuel burn. To be successful the target should be appropriate alternatives not changing supply lines without reducing end consumption. Coal fired stations are dying eg huntly so it’s not right to say nothing has been done but it can’t change overnight. Fixing Auckland road congestion would result in less fuel burn would it not? Smarter farming practices, reduce imported older cars subsidies for solar ect. There’s numerous ways to go about it smarter than hitting a supply line that benefits nz and replacing that with product sourced overseas that won’t do sweet all to end use. Get the ducks in a row before cutting off the nose to spite the face.......

[value_investor]

This was going to happen eventually. If it happened in 2019, 2020, 2021 etc people would have had the same reaction to it. The government picks up single digit royalties on these and from my understanding the revenue earned is in the 100s of millions which is small. While I do think this was necessary to happen, the lack of consultation and the knee jerk reaction from the government is concerning.

[blobbles]

Doing something about climate change needs to benefit climate change and implemented with careful thought and consideration not some knee jerk reaction just so they can be seen to be doing something for the sake of doing something, a considered approach with appropriate mitigation controls. Reducing the reliance on say 20% of our power from gas when an alternate is in place. How is importing the same product going to improve climate change? Getting it here results in more fossil fuel burn. To be successful the target should be appropriate alternatives not changing supply lines without reducing end consumption. Coal fired stations are dying eg huntly so it’s not right to say nothing has been done but it can’t change overnight. Fixing Auckland road congestion would result in less fuel burn would it not? Smarter farming practices, reduce imported older cars subsidies for solar ect. There’s numerous ways to go about it smarter than hitting a supply line that benefits nz and replacing that with product sourced overseas that won’t do sweet all to end use. Get the ducks in a row before cutting off the nose to spite the face.......

There IS an alternative. All the things we run on gas on this country could be electric. It has been there for a long time. We do not produce our own crude oil for cars. We import it from the middle east. Any oil we produce in NZ is sent offshore anyway to be used for other things, some of which we re-import.

[blobbles]

This was going to happen eventually. If it happened in 2019, 2020, 2021 etc people would have had the same reaction to it. The government picks up single digit royalties on these and from my understanding the revenue earned is in the 100s of millions which is small. While I do think this was necessary to happen, the lack of consultation and the knee jerk reaction from the government is concerning.

I don't understand how this is "knee jerk". Responding to an environmental crisis we have known about for 30 odd years is not "knee jerk". Allowing current known and exploited fossil fuel reserves to be used up is not "knee jerk". This was a sensible response which could have been MUCH worse for the industry.

[workingdad]

There IS an alternative. All the things we run on gas on this country could be electric. It has been there for a long time. We do not produce our own crude oil for cars. We import it from the middle east. Any oil we produce in NZ is sent offshore anyway to be used for other things, some of which we re-import.

Gas as in LPG..... drilling is not just about oil. My gas heating is considerably cheaper than electricity, my gas hot water is significantly cheaper than electricity and given 20% of electricity generation in NZ is derived from gas/lpg I feel use of it for these is perfectly acceptable.

Change is done in increments not all at once and labour and the greens have jumped ahead of themselves, I get it, your more of a greenie than I am but ask any NZer even those working on oil rigs like I have done if they want a cleaner greener NZ and I can assure you the answer will be yes but it is a global situation and removing supply in NZ to have it come from overseas (once again gas/lpg) is not a pragmatic, reasonable or considered approach regardless of how you look it, the infrastructure of the country is not ready to go without lpg or oil for that matter, target that not the supply that will simply be shipped from somewhere else.

[blobbles]

Gas as in LPG..... drilling is not just about oil. My gas heating is considerably cheaper than electricity, my gas hot water is significantly cheaper than electricity and given 20% of electricity generation in NZ is derived from gas/lpg I feel use of it for these is perfectly acceptable.

Change is done in increments not all at once and labour and the greens have jumped ahead of themselves, I get it, your more of a greenie than I am but ask any NZer even those working on oil rigs like I have done if they want a cleaner greener NZ and I can assure you the answer will be yes but it is a global situation and removing supply in NZ to have it come from overseas (once again gas/lpg) is not a pragmatic, reasonable or considered approach regardless of how you look it, the infrastructure of the country is not ready to go without lpg or oil for that matter, target that not the supply that will simply be shipped from somewhere else.

We have a decade or two to react before supplies run out. During that time it will get more expensive, absolutely, but it won't be overnight and will encourage users to choose electric. I aren't sure how this could be done better? Sure, we need to replace Huntly's gas generators. But not long ago we were cancelling major renewable projects (particularly wind), because energy demand was not there. Put these back into action and capitalise more on our geothermal and we can catch up pretty quickly. It is the "low hanging fruit" of being able to meet our GHG emission reductions.


You still haven't talked about the other side - the price of inaction. If we do not quickly replace gas, we put ourselves at risk of having to buy emissions credits from other countries, which will put a massive dent in government books and new taxes will need to be raised to cover these. This amount was last calculated at $14.2b by 2030 (http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politi...t-targets.html). The taxes to cover this will be on other industries in NZ, which will make these more expensive to operate in NZ than in other countries. Without taking decisive action now, the entire future of other industries in NZ are put at risk. We have abundant natural resources in NZ. We can use them and become ultra competitive because we derive all of our energy needs from non GHG sources, or we can keep going with something that is giving us a few 100m in royalties a year and receive a $14b bill later. The choice is clear.

You also might feel the use of gas powered items are acceptable because you are not paying for the emissions. Its high time emissions were included in price. Now I am not saying you are not green or interested in a clean environment. But we have an environmental emergency which both Labour and National, while in power, have been dragging their feet over for 30 years. Now it comes time for decisive action or it will cost us big time.

[777]

Emission credits. A system of putting money in someones pockets and achieving little.

[clifton]

It is of course extremely wasteful to burn oil and gas. Oil and gas are currently indispensable feedstock for various chemical industries and this Government's actions will kill the Taranaki's chemical industry eg the Methanex plants and others, no reinvestment etc. They will ultimately close down and new plants will be built elsewhere in other jurisdictions where there will be more certainty of supply of the raw material, gas. Meanwhile we will still be wearing artificial fibres (oil based), taking various medicines (often oil based) using plastic insulation (oil based) on electrical wires in our electric cars. Clearly this Government does not want New Zealand to have any oil or gas based industry. In my view it would have been better to encourage research, and create conditions that would favour substitution of oil and oil products with other supposedly greener alternatives, and then let the oil industry whither. This will happen anyway to some extent with the prediction by some that electric vehicles will replace most internal combustion vehicles. But for many chemical products derived from oil and gas there is little alternative.