Black Monday

[winner69]

The US still have the biggest GDP in the world (from memory roughly 25% of world GDP if measured in US dollars) - but I don't think they are contributing 40 to 50% to the world trade - no matter how you are measuring that.

Both China as well as the EU have a similar sized GDP than the US, and both China as well as Europe are trading much more internationally than the US (where international trade is only something like 10% of the total inland GPD).

However that might be - the US are a very important trade partner and I have no doubt that some of Trump's actions will be the cause for the next economical crisis. I guess he is just like a child playing with matches around an open petrol tank ... hard to say how many matches the child needs to bring the fuel tank to explosion - but the bang will be substantial.

The biggest risk factor I see is him driving the US into the worst debt crisis ever. The public debt clock is now at 21.5 trillion USD - that's nearly USD 71k for each head in the US. On the other hand - the gross annual per capita income in the US is only USD 15.5k. this means every US citizen would need to work 4 and a half years without eating, drinking or spending any money to just repay their public debt.

The US will never be able to repay the debt accumulated under Trump - and guess what will happen when people realize?

Trumps trade wars are obviously bad for the US as well as for the rest of the world. While each one alone is probably not a spark big enough to cause the explosion ... the fireworks he is generating well might.

So yes, we better prepare for interesting times ... but hard to say whether the big bang will be in a month, a year or in a couple of years. Don't think it will take much longer.

Take care out there ... and enjoy the fireworks

That’s a cheery start to the week ....thanks

Markets probably go up this week.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;728461]

..."I have no doubt that some of Trump's actions will be the cause for the next economical crisis. I guess he is just like a child playing with matches around an open petrol tank ... hard to say how many matches the child needs to bring the fuel tank to explosion - but the bang will be substantial...

...The biggest risk factor I see is him driving the US into the worst debt crisis ever...

...The US will never be able to repay the debt accumulated under Trump - and guess what will happen when people realize?...

...Trumps trade wars are obviously bad for the US as well as for the rest of the world...

...So yes, we better prepare for interesting times ... but hard to say whether the big bang will be in a month, a year or in a couple of years...

... Take care out there ... "


I have read where a substantial outcome of the US tax cuts is more travel spending by business and individuals and this benefits the hotel business, and people with substantial interests in hotels and hotel property and golf courses and ...

Is that conclusion appropriate? ...

[BlackPeter]

[QUOTE=Toulouse - Luzern;728474]

..."I have no doubt that some of Trump's actions will be the cause for the next economical crisis. I guess he is just like a child playing with matches around an open petrol tank ... hard to say how many matches the child needs to bring the fuel tank to explosion - but the bang will be substantial...

...The biggest risk factor I see is him driving the US into the worst debt crisis ever...

...The US will never be able to repay the debt accumulated under Trump - and guess what will happen when people realize?...

...Trumps trade wars are obviously bad for the US as well as for the rest of the world...

...So yes, we better prepare for interesting times ... but hard to say whether the big bang will be in a month, a year or in a couple of years...

... Take care out there ... "


I have read where a substantial outcome of the US tax cuts is more travel spending by business and individuals and this benefits the hotel business, and people with substantial interests in hotels and hotel property and golf courses and ...

Is that conclusion appropriate? ...

Absolutely. It is like with these matches the child at the petrol station is playing with. They might as well provide light and warmth ;

No worries - sleep tight!

[moka]

There won’t be just one cause of the recession e.g. Trump. Everyone is looking for a safe place to put their money because the risk of a crash is high – too much debt with not enough asset backing. Will I get my money back? A credit crisis is a liquidity crisis. Think of liquidity like petrol. If there is no petrol you can’t run your car. If there is no liquidity capitalism can’t function. Liquidity is a gauge of how much money is flowing through the system. Here is a warning sign with funds restricting investors withdrawing funds.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-funds-pulled
“Some local asset management firms including DB Asset Management Co., Alpha Asset Management and Heungkuk Asset Management restricted investors from withdrawing their invested funds from some MMFs from last week, citing the high volume of withdrawals”

In New Zealand some finance companies funds were frozen in 2006 and 2007 before the 2008 crash. Bridgecorp was in July 2007.
https://www.interest.co.nz/saving/deep-freeze-list

When liquidity dries up such as it did in 2008 with AIG and Lehman Brothers the economy slows down. AIG couldn’t sell its assets for anything approaching their true value because liquidity dried up.

https://insight.kellogg.northwestern...t-wrong-at-aig
“AIG is a mystery to a lot of people and it’s very complicated,” McDonald says. “There were multiple moving parts.”
The company’s credit default swaps are generally cited as playing a major role in the collapse, losing AIG $30 billion.”

[moka]

Trump is talking about targetting Japan for "serious talks" next. Is he going to go through each asian country and demolish trade? The US is something like 40-50% of world trade. Will he be the cause of the next recession or depression? Will he be reigned in or maybe he can't do enough damage fast enough? Maybe it'll all just be fine? I'd love to hear what people think.

Personally, i think we'll be fine for a while, but i have concerns for the coming years. All a bit random, really.

While it would be nice if Trump’s reign was reined in it won’t happen. He would be quickly removed if he was doing something Republicans and Big Money didn’t want to happen. Trump will be the scapegoat. While I don’t like Trump I think Mike Pence is worse. The beauty with Trump (yes beauty and Trump in the same sentence) is that you can clearly see how crazy he is. With Mike Pence it’s all confidence and “trust me I know what I am doing.”

[BlackPeter]

While it would be nice if Trump’s reign was reined in it won’t happen. He would be quickly removed if he was doing something Republicans and Big Money didn’t want to happen. Trump will be the scapegoat. While I don’t like Trump I think Mike Pence is worse. The beauty with Trump (yes beauty and Trump in the same sentence) is that you can clearly see how crazy he is. With Mike Pence it’s all confidence and “trust me I know what I am doing.”

Not sure Trump has enough brain cells to fathom that he is dependent on big money. I think you expect too much from somebody with the mental age of a 5 th-former. He loves to be praised and admired - no matter by whom and he is doing everything to keep getting this kick. And sure - big money is controlling his brainless supporters through their very own media (not just Fox), which is the reason he started with a very right wing rich friendly agenda.

And sure - big money certainly loved the permanent tax cuts for the rich as well as the health cuts for the poor. But now that Trump is waging international trade wars which impact on business - this is not that good for big money. Big money is smart enough to know that bullying and blackmail does not work long term in successful business relationships. Trump doesn't know that.

But you might be right in this point - it well maybe the beginning of the end of his reign that he started to wage wars against the Koch brothers as well. But this is a tale for some other thread ;

[Bobdn]

Last post, I'll move to another thread

[Chanchay]

Tax Working Group

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ion-hits-snags

Should I be worried about this? I'm no high roller or baller, I'm just a person of modest means who tops up my savings with some dividends. The people I know on the left (two people), however, view anyone who owns shares as suspicious and probably linked to the Panama Papers.

Could Black Monday for us be about events that happen here rather than abroad?

Hi Bob. It seems that any change would not effect share purchases retrospectively. So if it does go ahead it will apply only to shares purchased in the future.

Personally I think it is a shame it will not go ahead. I would love to own a house and have a family at some point.

[Bobdn]

Hi Bob. It seems that any change would not effect share purchases retrospectively. So if it does go ahead it will apply only to shares purchased in the future.

Personally I think it is a shame it will not go ahead. I would love to own a house and have a family at some point.

Was going to cut and paste my post in another thread.

Thanks Chanchay, I remember reading that the Australian labour party was looking at doing something with imputation credits. I wonder if any changes are being considered here. Anyway, a question for the Elections thread and capital gains discussion perhaps.

I'll let people get back to the Koch brothers and Trump

[bull....]

correction might be over