Black Monday

[Aaron]

Are you for real? So in the last 9 years the market has moved up by between 100-200% depending on which market and metrics. So you need a 60% + correction to even break even. That is never going to happen. Maybe being in the market rather than timing the market is still the wise thing to do?

Thanks for making me feel better... not.
Not entirely true I have a few shares but have been getting depressed waiting for a bigger correction. Each year prices get higher so each year I am more tempted to buy, but I have waited so long for a correction now that I have to remind myself that each year a correction gets closer, unfortunately we are in the longest or second longest expansion ever. Also I am fighting central banks which are globally using unprecedented monetary policy to levitate the markets. (I think this is a version of trickle down economics)

According to Ray Dalio I still have another couple of years to wait.

[Aaron]

Im pretty sure that was a joke!

Mostly a joke but it is the sad element of truth to it that should provide the big laughs for everyone other than me.

[blackcap]

Thanks for making me feel better... not.
Not entirely true I have a few shares but have been getting depressed waiting for a bigger correction. Each year prices get higher so each year I am more tempted to buy, but I have waited so long for a correction now that I have to remind myself that each year a correction gets closer, unfortunately we are in the longest or second longest expansion ever. Also I am fighting central banks which are globally using unprecedented monetary policy to levitate the markets. (I think this is a version of trickle down economics)

According to Ray Dalio I still have another couple of years to wait.

Cheers for getting back. Yeah its a tough one and in your situation you will need balls of steel to stay away now as the bull keeps on running. You are correct in identifying that a correction is a lot closer now so its probably best to wait. I am too putting less and less into the market and accumulating cash where I can. Sorry about your dilemma, but what was the problem 9 years ago? Surely that was just post a huge correction with the GFC?

[Aaron]

Cheers for getting back. Yeah its a tough one and in your situation you will need balls of steel to stay away now as the bull keeps on running. You are correct in identifying that a correction is a lot closer now so its probably best to wait. I am too putting less and less into the market and accumulating cash where I can. Sorry about your dilemma, but what was the problem 9 years ago? Surely that was just post a huge correction with the GFC?

Yep but I had just avoided a margin call near the bottom 2008 or 2009 (can't really remember) which would have been disastrous, I fortunately bought into all the equity raisings so when I broke even again I bailed out and have not really got back in, in any great way. Fear is obviously a bigger driver for me than greed. Also I kept reading that the problem was debt and the GFC had been solved with more debt so this wasn't really a long term solution. Central banks have responded with unprecedented monetary policy as well. Anyway the debt cycle and economic cycle may not have been beaten, just delayed. My concern now is that confidence in cash gives way or inflation in everything else catches up to assets and money becomes worthless before a share market crash. No one worth listening to has ever said timing the market is a good idea but, it is my main idea for now.

[NeverQuestion]

Yep but I had just avoided a margin call near the bottom 2008 or 2009 (can't really remember) which would have been disastrous, I fortunately bought into all the equity raisings so when I broke even again I bailed out and have not really got back in, in any great way. Fear is obviously a bigger driver for me than greed. Also I kept reading that the problem was debt and the GFC had been solved with more debt so this wasn't really a long term solution. Central banks have responded with unprecedented monetary policy as well. Anyway the debt cycle and economic cycle may not have been beaten, just delayed. My concern now is that confidence in cash gives way or inflation in everything else catches up to assets and money becomes worthless before a share market crash. No one worth listening to has ever said timing the market is a good idea but, it is my main idea for now.

If it makes your feel better, I have been waiting for a market correction in the Housing Market for a long time. There have been a few chances in the last 8 Years that I was in a position to make an offer, but last minute decided the amount of debt was too much to service, and the Market was surely about to correct. There was also no guarantee that I would get in with the amount of funds I was offering for the property anyway. A lot for a First home buyer, but not much for an Investor. My play now is to wait for the Share Market cycle. Attempt to use the huge % increase to build up enough for a deposit, and hopefully out climb the housing market increase. If not then repeat and it will hopefully make a good retirement fund

Given the Housing Market in NZ and AUS has climbed and then Plateaued over multiple cycles.. Trend is not my Friend on this

[RupertBear]

Mostly a joke but it is the sad element of truth to it that should provide the big laughs for everyone other than me.

My apology for the laughing faces earlier, I wrongly assumed you were joking. My bad All he best for your investing when you decide the time is right for you

[RTM]

Yep about 9 years ago, just waiting for the next leg down.

I did the same with my USA stocks when Trump got in.
Still hurts. A lot.

[bull....]

bit of a ugly night on the us markets tonight

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/us-m...-in-focus.html

another huge drinks company making move into weed

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-10-1027590537

nz becomes first country in the world to demand passwords

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/fork...travelers.html

[Aaron]

PS I was assuming you were joking, if not then I apologise for my insensitivity

No problem, I was just joking.

[moka]

Yep but I had just avoided a margin call near the bottom 2008 or 2009 (can't really remember) which would have been disastrous, I fortunately bought into all the equity raisings so when I broke even again I bailed out and have not really got back in, in any great way. Fear is obviously a bigger driver for me than greed. Also I kept reading that the problem was debt and the GFC had been solved with more debt so this wasn't really a long term solution. Central banks have responded with unprecedented monetary policy as well. Anyway the debt cycle and economic cycle may not have been beaten, just delayed. My concern now is that confidence in cash gives way or inflation in everything else catches up to assets and money becomes worthless before a share market crash. No one worth listening to has ever said timing the market is a good idea but, it is my main idea for now.

I can relate to your fear, Aaron. I had shares in Pike River Coal and after the explosion I sold all my shares including boring old Ryman and got completely out of the sharemarket. It took a while to get back in and I did so gradually. It was hard work overcoming my fear. Now the pain of losing that money has gone but I learnt a very valuable lesson - that black swan events can and do happen and things can change very quickly in the course of a day.
Greed and fear – 70% greed and 30% fear. The greed or optimist side has to dominate but there has to be a strong element of fear or caution. Feel the fear – it’s essential to control greed.