Black Monday

[Nasi Goreng]

Meanwhile does anyone else get the feeling this Chinese holiday(sharemarket closed) is just the intermission --I think alot are sweating about next week

I think it will be volatile and there could be a small rally or a big sell off. Maybe cool heads will prevail if US/EU don't implode.

I bought Alibaba this week, I'm not trying to pick the bottom but at these levels, it looks good for a 5 year + time horizon.

NZ market is holding up really well, the speculative stocks have been falling but most have barely moved. I think so far so good but if fear strikes, there is quite a long way to go for some with high multiples.

[Beagle]

More doom and gloooooom for ya all. This from London.

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...proaching.html

Thanks...I think. That makes truly depressing reading.

[xafalcon]

Thanks...I think. That makes truly depressing reading.

Bad news sells

Problems is, general public only gets to hear the reporters perspective/interpretation which is often biased.

Just like the never ending China doom & gloom stories. eg. Even if China growth falls from 7.4% last year to 6.9% this year, their absolute growth is still larger. Ever heard that being reported?

[Beagle]

Bad news sells

Problems is, general public only gets to hear the reporters perspective/interpretation which is often biased.

Just like the never ending China doom & gloom stories. eg. Even if China growth falls from 7.4% last year to 6.9% this year, their absolute growth is still larger. Ever heard that being reported?

You get the prize for glass half full perspective this week but for mine the fact remains if you look at the collapse of a wide range of commodities its pretty clear that demand from China has very dramatically reduced which is in line with most economists thinking that the true state of the economy is far worse than the official version the Chinese authorities would have us believe. The 25% collapse in emerging markets this year also indicates we're in a genuine bear market.

[BlackPeter]

if you've got a spare 30+ minutes: great webinar presented by betashares: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rzab...ature=youtu.be

The first half hour is in my view an excellent analysis of the status of (mainly) the US and Australian economy (interest rates / unemployment / housing market / productive investments), the second part (another 20 minutes) is more a sales presentation and only interesting, if you are interested in Betashares new ETF's. At the end are questions asked (and answered) related to both presentations. Again - some interesting stuff in there (i.e. related to Chinese market).

What I took out of the seminar is that the situation in Australia is likely to get worse before it is getting better, while the US market might well hold. But sure - it is all just likelihoods - no guarantees given.

The overall economic picture painted in the first presentation is certainly less gloomy than in some of the other publications posted here. Might be worthwhile to view just to get a bit of a reality check before people start to dump everything ...

[Daytr]

I think what we are seeing is a massive transition that will actually benefit consumers and in the long run strengthen economies globally as there will be a broader wealth distribution that will be driven by the general populace, rather than multi-nationals and Wall St.
Oil is highlighting this change. China's massive infrastructure boom & growth created an unprecedented commodities boom & their economy nursed global growth from 2008 - 2014. Their economy is changing as rapidly as it grew, to a far more services based economy. Due to the cyclical nature of commodities where it takes around 5-10 years to bring on supply, the massive growth in supply which was overstated anyway and always had a major risk of being mistimed. China isn't buying that much less, but it is less, however supply in a lot of commodities has surged. Debt laden or capital intensive producers are now struggling. High costs producers will fall by the wayside and that will see prices in some commodities rebound at some point, but we probably aren't there yet as very few have actually fallen over, so production isn't reducing. In fact quite the opposite in some cases where in an effort to reduce operating costs production is being increased, which some refer to the race to the bottom.
The beneficiary of all this will be the consumer with cheaper goods & services. More money in Mum & Dads pockets to spend at the mall or on entertainment and even upgrades to cars & housing. The US is already showing signs of this in their last GDP report.
In the short term we are going to see some pain & some industries in particular will suffer numerous failures particularly in energy production.
However those who have retained an exposure top their local ccy are probably doing ok. Many miners in Australia for instance have USD debt which is hurting them badly. If they had AUD denominated debt then they would be doing okish.
Personally I think the biggest area that will benefit will be retail as consumers have more to spend, but there will be other industries where Ma & Pa spend their new found wealth.

[Baa_Baa]

Australia up, NZ and rest of Asia down (even without the China effect). Bit odd. US futures pointing down too.

yes, Nikkei and Hang Seng down, DOW futures down .. will be interesting to see how the week closes on US bourses without the China mainland influence. Makes it all the more intriguing how Shanghai will re-open when it does ... up, down ... whatever it is could be like a re-rate. The glorious uncertainty of it all ...

[elZorro]

I haven't held any shares for a year or more. I have kept an eye on one big share overseas (multiple exchange listings), this firm has fingers in pies all around the world, mainly in the industrial sector. They manufacture stuff. This firm has never lost money, not even in the GFC. They cut staff then, drastically reduced stock holdings, moved to lean manufacturing, open book costing etc, moved manufacturing to low wage economies, and they've been pruning business divisions in the last year. During the last few years they've dropped from over 30,000 staff worldwide, to 14,000 staff. They are now at an MCAP of nearly $4Bill, annual turnover about the same, with an EBITDA of about $800mill, impressive.

But their shareprice has dropped 43% from a recent peak in the last year, it's now dropping even more rapidly. They were a canary for the GFC, where their shareprice dropped to a very low price and quickly rebounded by about 6x after the GFC, over 2 years.

I think this is just one example of very good firms that are seeing negative sentiment towards their quality shares. It means that money is coming off the table worldwide, and it's been doing that steadily for over a year, unless I'm mistaken.

Interested to hear what other people are seeing overseas.

[JBmurc]

I'm bias but I really like the look of many of these micro-Jnr cap Gold producers in Aussie...

some factors I think could see many in the Gold ASX sector do well

-Many Trade at 10-30% of the market values they once did round the same AUD Gold price 4-5yrs ago
-Like many I see more Deflation and prolong lower energy costs ...this equals lower input costs (mining costs)
-Continue collapse of other miners bringing labour rates down and skilled workforce employment advantages .
-Lower AUD/USD increasing margins..ANZ predict $2,000oz USD gold by 2020(along with many other well known analysts)
-Sentiment change ,the sector for sometime has been well out of favour ...continue good profit numbers looks to be changing this..
-inverse advantages from major depression ...save haven in the investment landscape (this was shown in the 30's depression period etc
-Capital looking for a home ... Cashed up miners looking to diverse out of there woeful resources > MGX comes to mind..
-the Bear market in the sector has cut many a poorly run , low grade miner leaving the better run survivors ..

.......my 2c

[Daytr]

US NFP tonight right. Typically a very volatile session & probably especially so with the Fed maybe/maybe not considering raising rates later this month for the first time in 10 years! Market has a Sep hike rates at only a 25% chance, a good number could see a massive swing.
I'm closing out most of my positions.

Play safe everyone! ;-)