Black Monday

[Beagle]

CASH is KING !!!!!!
We need a separate thread on how to avoid the temptation to spend it on "STUFF". Is there some way to ban yourself from Trade Me's website LOL

[Hoop]

I love how these professional fund managers think that they should start buying after only a few days of falls, like its all over already. Of course - its clearly designed to reassure the muppets so that they dont get fancy ideas like wanting to pull their money out of the funds. A run on funds .... now where have I seen that before???

They probably revisited Shillers P/E history* and said "sh!t"!!!..

*In the last 115 years cyclic reversals from Bull to Bear occur before CAPE reaches 25........4 exemptions 1929 (31) 1999-2000 (43) 2007 (27) and now 2015 (26)....

[mfd]

They probably revisited Shillers P/E history* and said "sh!t"!!!..

*In the last 115 years cyclic reversals from Bull to Bear occur before CAPE reaches 25........4 exemptions 1929 (31) 1999-2000 (43) 2007 (27) and now 2015 (26)....

They'd be missing out on a lot of gains if the market shrugs this off and heads up to the 30s or 40s again...

[skid]

Skid reading your posts over the years I'm surprised you were ever in, you seem to be at the complete opposite end of the spectrum to myself. I have always liked extremes but not at the conservative end of the spectrum.

at one stage I was in quite alot (for me)--almost $100000--that was before the last GFC---I managed to come out about even on that one (mostly because of 1 lucky sale of NZO-which cancelled out the losses after(but I did sell which is why I came out ok)
I got back in after,but more conservatively and learned some valuable lessons on when to cut my losses if things are heading that way--so I set a strategy and listened to those who in my opinion are very knowledgeable and know more than me.
I,like you was once keen on PEB,but having missed the boat on the initial rise got in @$1 just befor the announcement that was disappointing--sold out @.89 $1100 loss--(I had just read the DIL thread from start to finish and learned alot from that--I took the loss ''the real loss'' as you would say.
when it dropped to .65 I decided it was cheap enough to give management another go-but I set a limit-iI guess others also though it was oversold as it rose in price-When it eventually started to reverse and dropped, I sold @.86--(I made up the loss and an extra grand)--When deciding whether to re enter,a wise investor brought NAN to my attention--with much better fundamentals I bought in and did quite well(for a while it went crazy going up--but the momentum changed and rather than ride it down I sold)

These companies are not my favorite sports team or my religion--I dont stick with them no matter what---''buy and hold ''is not a mantra for me.---Im not a trader ,but I will preserve capital if I can(thats how I funded the trip Im on for the last 2.5 months)--that includes some contributions to some who were born into far more unfortunate circumstances than you and I.--im not after riches.
(from my observations in 3rd world countries--when everyone is poor -they seem pretty happy--but when a few become rich,thats when the trouble starts--but that I suppose is a debate for another thread)

Getting back to the sharemarket ,i believe this has been brewing for quite some time(with all the financial intervention) That kind of meddling cannot IMO solve the real problems..they can put them off..but not forever---So having lived through the GFC and believing that the inherent problems were not solved---here I am--(Wish you were here because you seem like the sort of chap that could do much better things with the money than throw it away on the Share market)
Hope that clarifies things a bit--Its not about raising myself above others or rubbing salt in wounds--Its about thinking things through and knowing when to listen.

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=gv1;590034]

I'm bias but I really like the look of many of these micro-Jnr cap Gold producers in Aussie...

Yes JBmurc, these are the sectors to invest or watch for....
One big country(might have impact) bought heavily which is playing with its currency.

Yes I see AUD/USD now 69c ...putting AUD gold $1625 ....some analyst see AUD falling into the 50c's ....be the perfect storm if USD Gold can get some attention ...with some miners having sub 1k ASIC well see at present 30-70mill Mktcap companies having free cashflows upto 100mill p.a with 2k AUD gold

Also lower AUD should help attract international investment into profitable ASX companies

[gv1]

Hi Jbmurc, how about SUM(sumatra gold) based in indonesia, should start producing end of this yr. price dropped quite a lot?

[Nasi Goreng]

Hi KW

You seem very confident with your post and are ready to take on the world.

Some of your statements imply that it is all quite easy and that this is something you have recently discovered so I wonder if this has delivered great returns yet or do you expect to get great returns with your strategy.

I'm a relatively new investor, I have about 10 years experience so have only really seen one cycle. What I have found though is that it is not easy to pick tops and bottoms and most people avoid this.

Some people would have cashed up last October only to see another upward leg. As bearish as the world looks today, we could be in for a big relief rally that takes out all the shorts and hits new highs. In a situation like this, the buy and hold guys would be much better off than those who have cashed up and jumped into bear ETF's

You suggest it's probably easier to make money on the way down as well as on the way up. Probably? Does this mean you have had success at this through a few cycles it is it that you currently have a few short positions that are doing ok?

It can be done but it isn't easy, I would suggest that most investors, even the educated get this wrong and end up worse off than those buy and hold guys. Shorting is very risky, particularly on individual stocks and if you get it wrong, you will lose money and miss out on half of the new uptrend. I would say never ever short a stock that could be subject to a possible takeover which rules out most companies.

I've read many books which have all given me insight and confidence but they always make things look a lot easier than they actually are. I have studied TA and have used it to buy in up trends and on dips etc which has helped me to make a lot of good entries which I think is really important as once you buy, you're in.

The most obvious thing to me is that while I can't pick a top or a bottom, I can easily see when things have been going well and when they are not. So for me, it's not about always beating the market but more about knowing when to be all in and when to have some cash on the side lines.

[Daytr]

Nasi Goreng , what's your thoughts generally on the equity markets? Correction? More downside to come? Or great buying opportunity?

[BeeBop]

I remain a general buy and hold. Although, I qualify this by saying that I only hold until my personally calculated fair value has been achieved. Most of my buys are in a bear market and sells are in a bull market. My largest ever sell off was in November 2013 for most of my shares. The reasons I sold were: (1) most had reached their fair value, (2) I wanted to reduce our debt on investment properties, (3) the portfolio was getting a bit big and complicated for my valuing abilities and it felt good to pay a mortgage off and then go shopping for another house (buy and hold properties).

Currently, I am very gradually building up our NZX and LSE portfolios again as I have learnt more. Mostly I have learned (recently) that I am a shocker for trying to trade and make a rapid GBP200 here or there - it does not work for me in any way shape or form!

Had a fantastic couple of days in Queenstown looking at property and feel quite comfortable with my approach of working over both shares and property....

[skid]

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Crisis?...What Crisis?

Sorry to interrupt a valuable debate ,but I just had to throw this in as an example of preserving capital