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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #501
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    Hi -

    OK I started my journey recently to add some TA to the skill set. Am going through Trading for a Living and have spent some time with online resources. It does seem at least for the entry level tools like MACD, RSI etc a lot of the material seems to be geared toward relatively short time scales. Wondering what your favourite tools are for identifying longer term trend reversals? Also is it valid for instance, to switch to a lower frequency like a weekly chart and still get useful data from those tools?

  2. #502
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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyLP View Post
    Hi -

    OK I started my journey recently to add some TA to the skill set. Am going through Trading for a Living and have spent some time with online resources. It does seem at least for the entry level tools like MACD, RSI etc a lot of the material seems to be geared toward relatively short time scales. Wondering what your favourite tools are for identifying longer term trend reversals? Also is it valid for instance, to switch to a lower frequency like a weekly chart and still get useful data from those tools?
    I found a copy of trading for a living, it was in the supa shed (charity shop) for one dollar. In its day i dare say it was a useful book, however that day is long gone. Entries and exits by the same author is much better imo, although i have a bit of a problem with Elder

    He writes nice glossy books, but it has to remember he makes his money writing about trading, not from actually trading, just like most in the TA industry. He also has a very annoying habit of mentioning what car people drive, or what yacht people own. Makes him sound like a typical snake oil salesman

    Indicators, put nice little patterns under your charts, but they pretty much all do the same thing, ie tell you what the price has done. they. all tend to give buy and sell signals around the same time. The only one i bother using these days is a coloured CCI on a weekly chart, just for visual purposes really. I can see at a glance whats in a bad way, or becoming interesting.

    After a while you will find they just clutter the place up and cause lazy thinking. A Simple price chart with no indicators is better. Learn where to put support and resistance lines. Breakouts are the easiest to trade imo. Find charts that have spent a long time in a range, then wait for the breakout. Nice and simple, and easy to judge where to put stops etc. Bsst to work with long term weekly charts as they take out the noise, then as you see the breakout happen switch to the daily to time your entry.

    I favour a mixed approach. One author i recommend is Colin Nicholson, who uses long term charts as an investment aid. He also has a very good subscription service for around 60 dollars a year which contains far more information than any book. I highly recommend you read his books and join his website. Not sure what his latest book is called, but the aggressive investor was very good. He is Australian so it very relevent to most of us.. He buys good quality dividend paying stocks at the right time, and holds them until the long term trend changes
    Last edited by ratkin; 06-09-2015 at 03:25 AM.

  3. #503
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daytr View Post
    Nasi Goreng , what's your thoughts generally on the equity markets? Correction? More downside to come? Or great buying opportunity?
    It's hard to sum up because every company is different at different stages but I think the correction is healthy for equity markets and a bit overdue.

    The correction still goes on and we will probably see the lows tested and possibly see lower lows. I think interest rates are too low for the big bear to take another 10-20% but we will see. The next quarterly earnings season in U.S. will be very important as well as what the fed does later this month.

    In general, I think it's really volatile out there with big swings in both directions, very hard to pick from week to week. My point in previous post was around this. We could see a 5% swing next week in either direction. I'm probably more bullish now than 3 months ago and looking for opportunities but doing this very carefully.

  4. #504
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    Thanks, yeah I was more referring to indices than individual stocks.
    I have been bearish on the DOW for instance for 6 months.
    PEs were too high & a higher dollar was always going to hurt international companies that make up the DOW.
    The USD seems to be consolidating against major currencies so that's a plus.
    However earnings are weakening & not just for those exposed to the dollar.
    With significantly lower oil it impacts almost everything cost wise in our lives, as there is an energy component to it, either in its production/manufacture or delivery. So if the overall price of something deflates, so to will the revenue in total dollars made likely reduce, over time.
    And I have also said with zero interest rates, again a reduction in costs to business, total dollars should reduce in total dollar profits.
    But that takes time as competition forces margins to be squeezed down to where they were in percentage terms.
    I also think we will have a debt crisis in regards the oil industry in the US & Canada.
    Perhaps oil recovers in time to stave off any implosion, however I think it is a very real & likely outcome.
    If & when that happens I think we will then see a bottom.
    The DOW is at a reasonably key level of support & if breaks again, we should see 15k & if a debt crisis unfolds as I suspect then 12-13k in the DOW is on the cards in my view. The US economy is in ok shape generally, but there are some quite hefty imbalances as well.
    China I'm not so worried about as I think its just a matter of a new economy finding its feet more than anything else.
    Europe's still a mess and they go from one crisis to another. The refugee crisis could actually act as a catalyst for growth if they stopped putting fences up and started building accommodation for them etc.
    Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.

  5. #505
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    I started investing part time in the markets from 1987 and owned chase, anzon and lost everything what a experience, I never invested again until 1995 as I spent most of my money on beer and food back in those days as a lot of young fellows do.
    In 1995 I brought port of Tauranga for 1 dollar , micheal hill for 63c and sold them for some good profits in a relatively short time I decided trading was fun easy quick money, so I thought, it was far from easy I ended up losing most of the time and the broker sure got rich over the years they loved me - now I know why in hindsight again

    Anyway being a persistant person who likes to battle away until they can achieve there goal I kept plugging away I achieved my goal and have been trading professionally the last 10yrs and probably on average earn more return than most professional fund people ( buy and hold included) over the time period.

    Guess the points in hindsight again is that if I had used buy and hold on my port of Tauranga and micheal hill I would have made a lot more over the long run than simply trading them and paid a hell of lot less brokerage.
    Trading is great for profits "if you can do it" its not as easy as some people try to make out and timing the market is definitely not easy and is really only suited to people who can spend a lot of time watching the markets.
    keep learning learning and learning I still consider myself very dumb compared to some people
    buy and hold ( if you get the right stock ) works if you don't can lead to ruin
    Trading works
    Decide what type of investor you are is critical and this depends on your personality

    I have evolved and based on my learnings and personality now consider a core and satellite approach to investing, is best suited to me. best of both worlds, in 10yrs time again in hindsight I will know if this worked out for me lol
    one step ahead of the herd

  6. #506
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    Totally agree Bull.
    Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.

  7. #507
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    Some wise words ....had I sold all my shares in 2011-12 I'd have saved a bundle ..of money and stress ..Trading isn't easy by any means... I wouldn't recommend it ...esp in the ASX sectors I've focused it's be very hard ..
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  8. #508
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post

    Guess the points in hindsight again is that if I had used buy and hold on my port of Tauranga and micheal hill I would have made a lot more over the long run than simply trading them and paid a hell of lot less brokerage.
    Cant say for sure, but i have the feeling that if i had never sold a share during the past twenty five years then i would have a higher net worth than i do now. Yes a few of the stocks would have drifted to zero, but quite a few other that i did sell have gone on to be huge multi baggers, which would have more than compensated.

  9. #509
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    Re Bull
    In '87 was also in Chase,equiticorp etc.Portfolio reduced by itself by 70 % but found by cashing out & adding better Q stocks I had made it all back within 2 years
    I go along with your thoughts there Bull.Whenever considering a company I first decide if I consider the company will be around for 10-20 years.If it is yes ,sector has long term prospects & management is top notch then worth buying & holding for long term rather than a trading stock.Long term share markets rise & if you are holding the right stocks your portfolio will rise faster than the market.
    Conversely if the stock requires constant monitoring because of its volatility I get the sense than some traders on here are just engaging themselves in a time consuming job rather than an investment that should work for them
    This time around my portfolio is down 5% but nothing needs to be sold & the dividends provide an exceptional income.
    Just for fun I do allocate up to 10%of my portfolio for a few specy's but they more often than not they don't do well for me & cause augst.Best one was SKL after their cap raising at 50 cents.Worst NWF now sold,OHE at break even after selling half
    Last edited by kiora; 06-09-2015 at 02:46 PM.

  10. #510
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    Kiora..I am with you on the specs. I have one or two little ones as they keep me busy and keeps my focus away from the "real" portfolio....THAL on the LSE was my most recent disaster (thank goodness it was only a small investment.....once it was down a good percentage () I sold and then bought one which has been promptly taken over...net gain GBP0.00 - ultimately the real portfolio remains untouched and continues to truck away just nicely with no harm done other than entertain my dreams of striking the big one.

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