Black Monday

[moka]

The famous Dornbusch's Law of financial crises is that they take longer to hit than you think, but then unfold much faster than you ever thought possible. So you have a chance to be wrong twice.

Lots of risks around including slowing growth in emerging markets and a possible meltdown like 2008 where a bailout is needed.
Any emerging market country with serious imbalances is going to get hit as the Fed tightens. That is what happened in 1998. This looks very similar. The emerging market nexus was not big enough to take down the global economy in 1998. Today, it makes up over 50 per cent of world output, and 80 per cent of incremental growth. If Turkey is a sign of stress to come, batten down the hatches.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...e-at-risk?rm=a

[bull....]

the fed will drain 600 billion from the system next year , thats why a bear has arrived. asset prices need to adjust

[skid]

The famous Dornbusch's Law of financial crises is that they take longer to hit than you think, but then unfold much faster than you ever thought possible. So you have a chance to be wrong twice.

Lots of risks around including slowing growth in emerging markets and a possible meltdown like 2008 where a bailout is needed.
Any emerging market country with serious imbalances is going to get hit as the Fed tightens. That is what happened in 1998. This looks very similar. The emerging market nexus was not big enough to take down the global economy in 1998. Today, it makes up over 50 per cent of world output, and 80 per cent of incremental growth. If Turkey is a sign of stress to come, batten down the hatches.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...e-at-risk?rm=a

They have also eliminated some of the regulations designed to protect after the last meltdown....This US administration may have alot to answer for

[Valuegrowth]

Stocks are following crude oil?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUKKBN1OG01L

[bull....]

rally on today as we suspected , tomorrow the day of reckoning

another prominent bear

Alan Greenspan: Investors should prepare for the worst

He added that markets could still go up further — but warned investors that the correction would be painful: "At the end of that run, run for cover."

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/18/business/alan-greenspan-stock-market-party-over/index.html

[bull....]

anyway tomorrow i believe if they dont raise it will be worse than if they do

[bull....]

as predicted big pharma is now moving into pot marijuana industry joining big drinks companies. hope nz gets a move on will miss the boat

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...es-partnership

[BlackPeter]

as predicted big pharma is now moving into pot marijuana industry joining big drinks companies. hope nz gets a move on will miss the boat

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...es-partnership

Hardly a big money maker as soon as its legal and the hype faded away. Just a boring agricultural product any druggie without qualifications can grow utilising just whats left of their brain. No moat, no IP but yeah - some people work really hard to create some hype.

[mfd]

Hardly a big money maker as soon as its legal and the hype faded away. Just a boring agricultural product any druggie without qualifications can grow utilising just whats left of their brain. No moat, no IP but yeah - some people work really hard to create some hype.

Just like that insignificant alcohol industry, right? You don't even need half a brain to mix yeast with sugar, but there's still plenty of money to be made selling the stuff, and plenty of tax to be taken. That said, I'm not in a hurry to invest.

[BlackPeter]

Just like that insignificant alcohol industry, right? You don't even need half a brain to mix yeast with sugar, but there's still plenty of money to be made selling the stuff, and plenty of tax to be taken. That said, I'm not in a hurry to invest.

Nobody makes serious money with selling plain vanilla alcohol ... the money (well, some ... doesn't always work out) is in producing and selling premium wines, premium beer and high quality spirits.

Not sure I envisage the development of a "premium" weed industry ... but than - who knows? Give it another handful of generations and our grand grand children might sit with glassed over eyes in smoke filled weed palaces and enjoy their premium grass ... but than, who would work for them to allow them to afford the luxury?

Not sure this passes my test of a good investment - and certainly not now.