Black Monday

[Beagle]

I won't be surprised if the N.Z. market is not euphoric about that after all we were closed and couldn't react to the 650 point fall on Christmas eve U.S. time so a net gain of about 400 points on the DOW. Despite this one day rebound this is probably still the worst December on the U.S. markets since the great depression of 1929 !

[Balance]

I won't be surprised if the N.Z. market is not euphoric about that after all we were closed and couldn't react to the 650 point fall on Christmas eve U.S. time so a net gain of about 400 points on the DOW. Despite this one day rebound this is probably still the worst December on the U.S. markets since the great depression of 1929 !

Thank goodness for that!

[Mickey]

Still looks like a correction but I guess time will tell.

[Blue Skies]

As every good salesman knows, you try and advance your position as far as you can, before actually sitting down at the negotiation table.
I'm hoping a lot of the rhetoric from Trump (e.g. "I'm a tariff man") which is contributing to the instability in the markets is just brinksmanship, & that since his re-election in 2020 more than anything depends on good economic numbers, we will see deals being made with China in the new year & a winding back of the inflammatory stuff which is making the markets so twitchy.

[Balance]

Still looks like a correction but I guess time will tell.

One big gigantic dead cat bounce, you reckon?

[Beagle]

One big gigantic dead cat bounce, you reckon?

You could even say the dead cat meowed

[Blue Skies]

One big gigantic dead cat bounce, you reckon?

Those Christmas retail sales numbers from Amazon are record breaking, & from other retailers best numbers since 2012. That's compelling stuff. Think Mr Market might have been bit over pessimistic!

[Ggcc]

The whole market is up so far and some shares have shot up quickly..... Remember there is always tomorrow to buy shares

[Mickey]

Those Christmas retail sales numbers from Amazon are record breaking, & from other retailers best numbers since 2012. That's compelling stuff. Think Mr Market might have been bit over pessimistic!

Agree. I think the trade war rhetoric, Trumps ever-changing leadership team, interest rates increasing and media pessimism created a perfect wave of fear. Unemployment in the US still going down and economic growth still looking fairly good. The sharpness / volatility we've seen in the markets over the past few weeks is more symptomatic of correctional behavior fueled by negative sentiment and a growing wall of fear rather than the slow bear characteristics. Not saying that it still can't happen but I feel that if we keep experiencing seesaw volatility in the market in the coming weeks then perhaps we are not in a true bear market.

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/26/us-f...ve-plunge.html
No shortage of experts opining on where to from here with the US markets. Couple of things to bear in mind in the very short term in my opinion.
1. Many people don't realise that the tax year ends on 31 December in the US
2. This is apparently the first year in about a decade that one can consider tax loss selling as a generally quite widespread viable strategy.

Possibly a good risk management strategy might be to wait till very early January to go bargain hunting ?