Black Monday

**peat** · 03-01-2019, 05:34 PM

The stock market explained in 15 secs

https://twitter.com/abeautifulmind7/...90035974057986

**bull....** · 04-01-2019, 07:33 AM

the us markets all printed yearly reversals , as did most markets apart from nz. ( think that means nz is the best place to be heres a good article from the herald if you scroll thru it your see also in 1987 nz out performed the us markets for quite some time. but what is evident you cannot buck the trend of the major markets for ever as witnessed in 1987 when nz fell back into line with a major thud. not suggesting its an 87 just how all markets follow eventually the trend of the biggest.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/b...-market-crash/

So we have two scenarios us markets rebound and nz stays the same and the comparative re aligns or dow keeps falling or stays the same and nz has a big fall this year to catch up.

us markets yearly reversal points to new lows at some stage

**skid** · 04-01-2019, 09:11 AM

Originally Posted by bull....

the us markets all printed yearly reversals , as did most markets apart from nz. ( think that means nz is the best place to be heres a good article from the herald if you scroll thru it your see also in 1987 nz out performed the us markets for quite some time. but what is evident you cannot buck the trend of the major markets for ever as witnessed in 1987 when nz fell back into line with a major thud. not suggesting its an 87 just how all markets follow eventually the trend of the biggest.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/b...-market-crash/

So we have two scenarios us markets rebound and nz stays the same and the comparative re aligns or dow keeps falling or stays the same and nz has a big fall this year to catch up.

us markets yearly reversal points to new lows at some stage

there are quite a few moving parts in that scenario

**skid** · 04-01-2019, 09:16 AM

Originally Posted by skid

at time of reading it is looking like we are back where we started..maybe a small net loss...crazy times....seriously ..what were the odds of a further bounce after yesterday...It almost had to correct a little at least-----Some say one more rally ...and then the big one,down---will be interesting to watch..9not sure if that was ''wave theory'' or what)

last time I opened my mouth the US market immediately turned and ate a rather big loss to finish in the green---Thinking about hiring myself out to make similar comments for a small fee

**Bjauck** · 04-01-2019, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by value_investor

The nzx50 finishes 2018 with a 4.92% increase, outperforming most other indexes around the world.

Hopefully we see more IPOs in 2019 because the replacement of stocks being taken over in 2018 isn't happening and the market will just get smaller and smaller..

Tilt, TradeMe, Restaurant Brands, Tegal and not a single IPO in 2018 and none in sight for 2019.

2018 was not a good year for stock market variety and depth but I think It is a long term issue that the NZ stock market has shrunk in relation to the size of the economy. Isn’t it partly a structural issue to do with the lack of incentivised pension schemes (until even the weak KiwiSaver came along) coupled the household reliance on tax preferred residential real estate investment?

The NZ shrinking stock exchange is perhaps also in a bit of a vicious circle as NZ pension schemes and instos need to invest heavily overseas to obtain a balanced equity portfolio? Consequently NZ companies need to locate overseas to obtain access to capital?

**bull....** · 04-01-2019, 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by skid

there are quite a few moving parts in that scenario

thats the markets , lots of ever evolving moving parts

**Vagabond47** · 04-01-2019, 10:03 AM

Originally Posted by value_investor

The nzx50 finishes 2018 with a 4.92% increase, outperforming most other indexes around the world.

Hopefully we see more IPOs in 2019 because the replacement of stocks being taken over in 2018 isn't happening and the market will just get smaller and smaller..

Tilt, TradeMe, Restaurant Brands, Tegal and not a single IPO in 2018 and none in sight for 2019.

Are you comparing total returns, or capital returns? Bearing in mind that the NZX is the only major index that is a total returns index, and all others are capital indices. (AFAIK)

**Bobdn** · 04-01-2019, 10:51 AM

LOL. what was this guy thinking? 25 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway stock is in Apple. When was having 25 per cent of your investments in one stock a good idea? Sure sure, I know its tempting to roll out the fishing stories at this stage, we've all had luck piling into one stock in the market but, really, it's never a good idea to do this and it almost always ends badly. There's no suck thing as a sure bet.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/i...ock/index.html

"Don't bet the Farm, keep investments diversified, simple"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...A1N1H520140224

**Balance** · 04-01-2019, 05:09 PM

Originally Posted by Bobdn

LOL. what was this guy thinking? 25 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway stock is in Apple. When was having 25 per cent of your investments in one stock a good idea? Sure sure, I know its tempting to roll out the fishing stories at this stage, we've all had luck piling into one stock in the market but, really, it's never a good idea to do this and it almost always ends badly. There's no suck thing as a sure bet.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/i...ock/index.html

"Don't bet the Farm, keep investments diversified, simple"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...A1N1H520140224

Most of the shares were bought back in 2015/16 so his entry cost is still well below $100. He is probably adding more as we write - that's his style and his track record speaks for itself.