Black Monday

**couta1** · 06-09-2015, 08:14 PM

NBT no I didn't buy it because of huge cash pile(I like what the company does and its future prospects) but yes when I first come on the forum I did get caught up in a lot of hype ( I mean Snaak the next best thing since sliced bread, yeah right) no need to mention any other companies names but there were others. To me the share market is like a marathon(Those that have run one or so will know exactly what I mean) the race only starts at the 20 mile mark and its the finishing that matters most not how well one started out. TJ, I love your optimism

**Baa_Baa** · 06-09-2015, 08:23 PM

Let's not forget the NZX does respond to external markets. With the DOW and SP5 down Friday looking to test recent (tenuous) support, and the China markets having been closed late last week creating uncertainty, but re-opening on Monday (perhaps emboldened by celebrations involving their massive military might). The big international money in our market needs to and will make some decisions. Friday looked like distribution day, some up, some down, movement from risk to relative safety and vice versa, depending on perspectives. The pattern emerging locally is the footprint of the big money. There's no doubt the US markets have reverted down again from the dead cat bounce, so keep nimble in our antipodean backwater market, we are at the end of the whipping hose but also at the dawn of the global markets.

**Daytr** · 06-09-2015, 08:50 PM

The market is already pricing in a 75% chance that they wont raise rates in September, so I suspect your optimism is misplaced, although we are likely to get a small bounce. Do you really think what we have seen is about a possible 1/4% rise in rates?

Originally Posted by trader_jackson

All I am going to say is that if the fed hold interest rates, stocks will rally around the world and very quickly forget about this 'blip' we have had in recent weeks...

I have a feeling there could be a huge rebound late September

**Daytr** · 06-09-2015, 08:54 PM

I wouldn't be surprised to see Chinese markets rally hard tomorrow, mostly based on patriotism from their recent celebrations. Just a gut feeling, but we may see what I call a ra ra rally. Quite often see that after US holidays as everyone comes back in a good mood & buys.
I wouldn't bet my house on it, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Originally Posted by Baa_Baa

Let's not forget the NZX does respond to external markets. With the DOW and SP5 down Friday looking to test recent (tenuous) support, and the China markets having been closed late last week creating uncertainty, but re-opening on Monday (perhaps emboldened by celebrations involving their massive military might). The big international money in our market needs to and will make some decisions. Friday looked like distribution day, some up, some down, movement from risk to relative safety and vice versa, depending on perspectives. The pattern emerging locally is the footprint of the big money. There's no doubt the US markets have reverted down again from the dead cat bounce, so keep nimble in our antipodean backwater market, we are at the end of the whipping hose but also at the dawn of the global markets.

**Baa_Baa** · 06-09-2015, 09:06 PM

You could be right Daytr, which is why I mentioned the China celebrations, it just creates more uncertainty. A rally followed by reality-check could also happen. On their own, the DOW and SP5 Friday broke below and closed below the steep uptrend line from the dead cat, so as of Friday they are saying "going lower" (to at least test support) which is what the current futures are hinting at as well. China however will open well before, so they will send up the smoke signals that US and Euro will interpret. NZX and ASX are in the wilderness, I expect the big international money to sniff out their options and place their bets prior to and through lunchtime locally. Tomorrow is not a good day to buy or sell the NZX open. Imho.

Originally Posted by Daytr

I wouldn't be surprised to see Chinese markets rally hard tomorrow, mostly based on patriotism from their recent celebrations. Just a gut feeling, but we may see what I call a ra ra rally. Quite often see that after US holidays as everyone comes back in a good mood & buys.
I wouldn't bet my house on it, but it wouldn't surprise me.

**Daytr** · 06-09-2015, 09:14 PM

I am more bearish US markets from current levels than I am Chinese.
I've been buying the Indian index quite a bit lately & have done quite well out of it.

**Beagle** · 06-09-2015, 09:20 PM

Originally Posted by Daytr

I am more bearish US markets from current levels than I am Chinese.
I've been buying the Indian index quite a bit lately & have done quite well out of it.

What's the average PE of stocks on the Shanghai market..last I hear was 17 but that was a couple of weeks ago, so at a guess were somewhere about 15 now ?

**Baa_Baa** · 06-09-2015, 09:25 PM

The buy hold and pray's might ponder this as well ... if you have a share that for example halves in value, goes down 50%, that same share has to go up 100% just to get back to where you started.

Looking at your loses through that lense may assist is in considering whether preserving capital via a 'momentum investing' strategy is worth the effort of learning how to read a simple price chart.

**Daytr** · 06-09-2015, 09:26 PM

To be honest I don't know & I wouldn't trust the figures even if I did. But I do know is that China still has double or triple the growth of the Western world & it is driven by the Government and all the companies on the Shanghai exchange are SOEs.

Originally Posted by Roger

What's the average PE of stocks on the Shanghai market..last I hear was 17 but that was a couple of weeks ago, so at a guess were somewhere about 15 now ?