Black Monday

[winner69]

Useless fact ......lots more babies going to be born in the next year as usual

As markets rise to new highs conception rates increase (and vice versa)

[BlackPeter]

Useless fact ......lots more babies going to be born in the next year as usual

As markets rise to new highs conception rates increase (and vice versa)

Might not be such a useless fact ... time to buy ATM and start accumulating EVO ?

[Balance]

There is an article on Warren Buffet in the Saturday herald which is worth a read.

For me The most interesting Buffet quote from the article is the following.


”People get smarter but they don’t get wiser. They don’t get more emotionally stable. All the conditions for overvaluation and undervaluation absolutely exist, the way they did 50 years ago.
You can teach all you want to the people, you can tell them to read Ben Graham’s book, you can send them to graduate school, but when they are scared, they’re scared.”

He didn’t mention Greed.

Nor did he mention Hope?

[winner69]

Might not be such a useless fact ... time to buy ATM and start accumulating EVO ?

Fertility as a leading economic indicator ...if you like reading academic stuff with your Sunday coffee

https://www3.nd.edu/~kbuckles/BHL_fertility.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Fertility as a leading economic indicator ...if you like reading academic stuff with your Sunday coffee

https://www3.nd.edu/~kbuckles/BHL_fertility.pdf

In that case Africa must have an extremely bright economic future if we look at the sound base of their population pyramid ; Lots of fertility;

AFRICA.PNG


China on the other hand does not look that flash:

China.PNG

you sort of wonder whether their shrinking female population in child bearing age is still able to stem oblivion.

But so, may I add does the US (not looking very reproductive - I worry for their economic future ... I really do):

USA.PNG

This stats includes only the first Trump year, but it looks like he is bad for reproduction. Not fair on the man that his fellow citizens ask him to do it all alone ; The man can pay only that many prostitutes, can he ...

Maybe Russia's future looks a bit better - their reproduction is growing (though from a quite un-reproductive base, if I may say so ...):

Russia.PNG


However - I am not saying that the paper is wrong. Need to do some research on the South Sudanese stock exchange.

PS: If you like the pyramids - here are more: https://www.populationpyramid.net/

[winner69]

Cool charts BP ....bookmarked that site

But totally irrevelent (although is demographic data) to that paper which said 'Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short -run expectations about the economy than previously thought.' (posted in case you didn't even read the abstract)

[BlackPeter]

Cool charts BP ....bookmarked that site

But totally irrevelent (although is demographic data) to that paper which said 'Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short -run expectations about the economy than previously thought.' (posted in case you didn't even read the abstract)

Not so fast - long term these data will (even without academical research) clearly make an impact on the economy. More people, more workers, more consumption. No-brainer.

More interesting is the short term dependency ... and if your research says that fertility indicates shortterm a good economy, than Africa must clearly be in a golden position.

Obviously - economic progress is relative to where you are, but at some stage I am sure they will take over the US as well as China.

Anyway - nice games ...

[jonu]

Interesting discussion. Without looking deeply at the various examples...my first thoughts are that a solid population pyramid is something akin to kinetic potential. Without it you have limited means of moving forward.

[777]

I like the kiribati one. Are we not told that it will be under water some time this century yet the population is expected to double by 2100.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/kiribati/2018/

[winner69]

All this stuff Fed doing to keep the markets going up is the antithesis of capitalism .....and every step the closer we get to socialism