Black Monday

[ratkin]

I don't think anyone will get rich using a moving average crossover system in the long run - easy in hindsight to fit some averages but considering they are lagging indicators and most markets trade sideways most off the time your end up losing the majority of the time.

They work in strong trends, but then again so does everything else. They are rubbish in sideways markets. Pretty much since the GFC we have has plenty of strong uptrend so they have looked good, as has nearly everything else. When subject to rigourous testing the crossovers have been found wanting, however they are probbably better than nothing

[ratkin]

I cant give a complete run down of how momentum investing works in a few blog posts - people have written entire books on the subject. Which is why I recommend everyone goes and reads some of them. There are a lot of peripheral rules around using a moving average - such as what type of stock to use them on, what phase the market cycle is in, how to adjust them if you are buying more volatile stocks (which is why I trade my small caps, but hold my AREITs and use different MA periods for each). ....




Be carefule out there

Your not preaching to a class of five year olds, i suspect everyone here has read scores of books about trends, moving averages , filters, whipsaws etc etc etc. You are sounding like a sixteen year old who thinks he has just discovered sex.

and on bears
all you have to do is (a) recognise it when its happening, and (b) play to its strength (which means sometimes doing nothing at all).

Do you really think its that easy???

n

[Biscuit]

Your not preaching to a class of five year olds, i suspect everyone here has read scores of books about trends, moving averages , filters, whipsaws etc etc etc. You are sounding like a sixteen year old who thinks he has just discovered sex.

and on bears
all you have to do is (a) recognise it when its happening, and (b) play to its strength (which means sometimes doing nothing at all).

Do you really think its that easy???

n

That's a bit harsh, and I really doubt that everyone on here has read scores of books about trends....

[warthog]

Your not preaching to a class of five year olds…

No, it might be worse than that. The hog knows a couple of five year-olds who have basic grammar down pat.

[Crackity]

No, it might be worse than that. The hog knows a couple of five year-olds who have basic grammar down pat.

I agree - Basic grammar very important hog. The difference between " I helped Uncle Jack off the horse. " and " I helped Uncle jack off the horse. " is a big one....

[warthog]

I agree - Basic grammar very important hog. The difference between " I helped Uncle Jack off the horse. " and " I helped Uncle jack off the horse. " is a big one....

Decades ago, the hog put up a notice on a university notice-board, in a country far, far away:

"Native English speaker available for help with writing, conversation, spelling, grammer, etc. Call…"

When the hog returned, somebody had been good enough to correct the hog's notice

[ratkin]

http://chartgame.com

Give yourselves 10/10

[Daytr]

Really wasn't referring to NZ but globally.
I filled up with 91 at $1.85, still quite a bit cheaper than it was a year ago,

How do you figure that the consumer is getting the benefit? I'm paying almost the same at the pump as when oil was north of US$100 per barrel. Now it's in the US$40's.

Importer margins have increased hugely, the oil companies are simply keeping the profit

Forex only explains a fraction of the price gouging

If it's happening in NZ, it's happening elsewhere. Big oil are slowing world growth by doing this

[Daytr]

Chinese market soaring up 4% at one stage.
Yanks back from their last long weekend of the summer.
Could be an up night. Another 150 points or so from here in the DOW & it starts breaking out of a flag formation... or not.
Could be a good level to get short.

[ratkin]

Would be fun, except it doesnt allow you to use a 200 day moving average. Nothing like nobbling the horses before they are even out of the gate.

click on two year and it switches to a weekly chart where you can apply a 40 period moving average (200 days)