Black Monday

[nizzy]

China distribution chains have all slowed down as there's no-one at work - no-one to drive the forklifts, do the customs entry, manage the warehouses. Impacts very rapidly on NZ (and Aust) across multiple industries, more so than European economies. eg Coolstores are full of NZ/Aust meat = new shipments are being delayed, discounting in NZ supermarkets to clear at least some volume, and the coolstores in both NZ and China are needed for the fruit season just getting underway (eg Kiwifruit).

[winner69]

Should be a good day on the NZX today

[bull....]

Should be a good day on the NZX today

you would think so , i notice oil wasnt up today normally when you get a true risk on day oil will rally as well

[Brain]

China distribution chains have all slowed down as there's no-one at work - no-one to drive the forklifts, do the customs entry, manage the warehouses. Impacts very rapidly on NZ (and Aust) across multiple industries, more so than European economies. eg Coolstores are full of NZ/Aust meat = new shipments are being delayed, discounting in NZ supermarkets to clear at least some volume, and the coolstores in both NZ and China are needed for the fruit season just getting underway (eg Kiwifruit).

The Chinese guys will sort it out. They always do. What other country can build a hospital in 10 days. They are extremely well organised. In Nz we would be drafting the first page of the resource consent. I have a lot of respect for the Chinese.

[Southern_Belle]

Hey Lew, apologies, I misinterpretted what you meant & should have been more careful with my choice of words.

It's just I get a little irritated seeing comments on here blaming the govt for being asleep at the wheel & at the other extreme for over reacting, politicising the whole thing when we know it's extremely complicated, working on incomplete information, & any action or response comes with a cost just as doing nothing also has big risks.
Ministers are taking best advice from public health experts, walking a fine line between protecting us from an outbreak while trying not to antagonise our main trading partner & cripple the economy. Impossible, opposing goals!

Anyway this hot weather diabolical, little sleep, feeling a bit grumpy this morning, hope there's no hard feelings.

BTW surely our govt hasn't blocked the logs? I wouldn't know but assumed that was from China?

(Just read in the Gisborne Herald, the reason exporters have stopped buying logs is because there's not enough people at work in the ports in China to unload them from the ships when they arrive, due the Chinese govt extending the New Year shut down period. Nothing to do with our govt. )

Yes that is correct, they are not unloading logs (and other commodities) in the ports. The logging industry has been going through a tough time for the past year, this is worldwide not just NZ.

[sb9]

tesla up another 15% lol these momentum surges are insane haha

That's result of shorts got caught with their pants down and they're scrambling to cover as Tesla came out with big earnings results....

[Timesurfer]

Yes that is correct, they are not unloading logs (and other commodities) in the ports. The logging industry has been going through a tough time for the past year, this is worldwide not just NZ.

NZ logging is a dubious industry if we are relying on China trade anyway. No way we can compete with the now complete train tracks into the Russian forests.

[bull....]

Coronavirus


seems to be putting a lid on the rally at the moment the moment

Coronavirus death toll rises to 26 with more than 900 confirmed cases worldwide

• The majority of the reported cases are in mainland China, where travel bans were in effect Friday for at least 10 cities.
• Multiple cases of the virus have been confirmed in Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore and Japan.
• The United States reported its second case Friday, and Taiwan has reported one

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/coro...worldwide.html


have a look at this you tube video of the new 1000 bed hospital they are building in wuhan will be fully built in feb thats right feb lol man they can build things quick. i believe nz is still have a working group on the matter of upgrading hospitals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JDbvo-_gRE

rally seems to be back on in US markets , correction seems to have been short lived as mentioned in the post above and highlighted by the words moment it really did only seem like a moment for US markets.
Not surprising i guess china accounts for a small % of economic output for the US compared to a country like NZ where it accounts a much larger % so it would really only have a big impact in the US if it spread there.
For countries like NZ and AUS the impact is much more than the US mainly because of there dependence on china for trade.

[Balance]

NZ logging is a dubious industry if we are relying on China trade anyway. No way we can compete with the now complete train tracks into the Russian forests.

NZ can compete - I have had chats with the GM of one of the biggest private owners of forests in NZ.

The problem is that most in the industry here think short term, are not prepared to invest in new plantings as they are over-geared, the over-gearing means that they cannot endure short term market upheavals and as the GM commented, are not able to hold back from harvesting when prices are not right.

Trees keep growing - they do not have to be harvested!

As for long term supply contracts, most NZ players think that they are God’s gift to trading so they do not lock in long tw contracts. Recipe for disaster.

[Timesurfer]

I am not sure it is that simple.
For instance, trees keep growing but we have set up our mills so that they only process small logs!
Not that local mills compete too well with high log prices so forest owners don’t look after them and then when the international market crashes we suddenly have no local option.
I haven’t noticed the overseas owners being too afraid to ramp harvesting right down when it suits them.

However the local MDF plant is reportedly suffering little from the China situation with plenty of orders coming through still. If we weren’t a third world country we would not be sending any logs off shore unprocessed.