Black Monday

[peat]

Many base metals rallied today from oversold level's. Aussie market has been a real underperformer...just got a bit oversold today and corrected. Plenty more to come to the downside in the months ahead in my opinion for all markets.

Aall sectors participated in the rally which accelerated after our market closed, and the market actually closed positively. . US SP 500 futures continue to rally at this point after midnite NZ time. Unless the US tanks again tonite then there will be a very strong rally on Monday in NZ. Eg WBC NZ closed at $NZ17 whereas WBC AU closed at $A18

[bottomfeeder]

I think there will be a lot of sell offs and rallies, before this is over. It so difficult to pick the bottom for anyone. I see this going on until the coronavirus has been eradicated.

[ratkin]

Not much of a bounce today so far. Was expecting more. Maybe the DOW will close strong, although I guess many are learning there can be lots of bad news over the course of the weekend

[ratkin]

I think there will be a lot of sell offs and rallies, before this is over. It so difficult to pick the bottom for anyone. I see this going on until the coronavirus has been eradicated.

Think best time to buy will be when the virus starts peaking in the US and UK, that will be maximum gloom, Asia already starting to look promising, do not want to wait too long as the market will soon be looking ahead past this thing, and the scared money may largely already have left.

It will be better to buy on the bad days, rather than the good ones, but it is not easy as goes against human nature. There were times in 2008 where forcing myself to buy was literally painful. It just felt so wrong, but it turned out it was very right.

Am planning to start dipping my toes back in next week, but not into the NZ market.

[Crypto Crude]

Yes the price we want to be buying our investments back is when we feel that coronavirus is fully valued into the asset...
It would be interesting to do some sharetrader surveys or discussions on when we feel this might happen....

.^sc

[ratkin]

Yes the price we want to be buying our investments back is when we feel that coronavirus is fully valued into the asset...
It would be interesting to do some sharetrader surveys or discussions on when we feel this might happen....

.^sc

I will be drip feeding into it from next week, and will do so for a few months. The timing does not have to be perfect, I learnt that last time, a little too late and a little too early are ok. Just have to avoid much too late and much too early. Trying to pick the absolute bottom to put all the money back in is too hard to pick and more risky. I feel the NZ market not the best as the virus is not here yet. More profits to be made from markets that are being battered due to the presence of the virus.

[Crypto Crude]

I will be drip feeding into it from next week. The timing does not have to be perfect, I learnt that last time, a little too late and a little too early are ok. Just have to avoid much too late and much too early. Trying to pick the absolute bottom to put all the money back in is too hard to pick and more risky. I feel the NZ market not the best as the virus is not here yet. More profits to be made from markets that are being battered due to the presence of the virus.

Yeah well next week sounds much too early...
You would be better off to attack yourself with a chainsaw than to start re buying next week...
Have you totally lost your marbles...

.^sc

[ratkin]

Yeah well next week sounds much too early...
You would be better off to attack yourself with a chainsaw than to start re buying next week...
Have you totally lost your marbles...

.^sc

Will only be around 5% of funds going in next week, maybe much too early, but can see a few green shoots

[Snoopy]

What fire sale ? Market was on a record forward PE of 32.5 so has probably come down to about 30, (taking into account earnings decline from the recession we're probably already in). Ten year average is only 18. This is only a fire sale for people who don't have the perspective to understand normal metrics that aren't inflated by a decade on central bank intervention and support.

There are people on here who have no idea what a real fire sale is.

Quote right Beagle.

Just because a share is trading at a price 20% where it was a month ago does not make it cheap. However, I feel I should make a counter warning about your cash in the bank strategy.

Right now NZ is one of the few countries in the world without term deposit, or cash insurance. NZ is planning to adopt a strategy.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...scue-plan?rm=m

But even if this is adopted, NZers having a cash nest egg worth more that $50k could be liable for a 'haircut'. A haircut in this sense means the bank will confiscate a proportion of your term deposit money to recapitalize itself. And in order to save the everyday voter from this (most people), the rate of confiscation could be very high: think 90% of all your balance of money over $50k in any one account. A market will bounce back. But if your cash in the bank is confiscated it is gone forever. Even stuffing your mattress with cash is not safe. Remember how India declared all bank notes over a certain denomination to be worthless in an effort to stamp out black market activities,

Food for thought for those who consider 'cash' a safe haven in times of real trouble. Ironically I find myself more cashed up in relative terms than I have ever been as a result of the RBD partial takeover in 2019. However, I do have a coherent plan to reinvest this money over the next couple of years and I won't be waiting for a 'market bottom', and the increased risk of cash confiscation, to do it. My plan is to seek out a variety solid dividend paying shares with a yield consummate with their risk, in weakly correlated sectors. I have increased my holdings in TRA, HGH and PGW, albeit modestly, since the 'coronacrash'. So far I have lost some money on all of these reinvestments. But I am imagining in my own mind the market to be closed for the rest of year (for selling anyway). I am fairly sure that come December 31st, these top up purchases I have made will be looking more savvy. Must away to plan some more purchases next week.

SNOOPY

[James108]

Historic P/E ratios are a bit out dated when the risk free rate of return is so much lower now.