Black Monday

[Onion]

a forecast by Citigroup that the world faced a 55 per cent chance of a global recession sparked by a slump in economic growth in China

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-1...ction=business

[skid]

Well,Im betting the Fed will chicken out and postpone the interest rate increase--but trying to understand what is going on behind the scenes in China (and the whole Chinese Psyche is a different story altogether) How they will act in spite of what the Gov does is anyones guess--add to that Brazil and the other emerging countries and there are still many ways the wheels can fall off....Vs..some may miss some good buys---you be the judge--Is this the time for the gamble?

[couta1]

Well,Im betting the Fed will chicken out and postpone the interest rate increase--but trying to understand what is going on behind the scenes in China (and the whole Chinese Psyche is a different story altogether) How they will act in spite of what the Gov does is anyones guess--add to that Brazil and the other emerging countries and there are still many ways the wheels can fall off....Vs..some may miss some good buys---you be the judge--Is this the time for the gamble?

Come on skid, get some balls and get amongst it, the sun will still rise tomorrow even if its obscured by cloud. PS- Skiing for the week so more worried about high speed crashes than share market ones, have a nice day.

[Daytr]

Yeah you might be right Skid, although as rate rises take quite some time to filter through the economy they may go now.
The biggest area of concern besides what's going on in markets is the participation rate & with a big leap in job vacancies there is quite a good chance of increases in labour costs, something the Fed will be watching for closely.

[elZorro]

I still get these Equedia links, this one's quite interesting, and as I know there's a strong link between the gold price in US$ and the amount of US Treasuries held by foreigners, it rings true. Other interesting ideas here about how the equities market is going to fund the US bond market as China pulls out its cash, already happening.


http://www.equedia.com/great-us-debt...m_medium=email

[BlackPeter]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-1...ction=business

Oh dear ... a 1 in 3 chance of a 2016 recession in Australia - actually, in my view quite optimistic given the current shape of the mining sector (but maybe they assume resources going up again) - and a 55% chance of a global recession.

So what? A recession is per definition two (or more) quarters of negative growth. These things happen - nothing can go up without end and it might be even a healthy consolidation. As well no recession so far (not even the great recession 2007-2009 or the great depression in 1929) was the end of the world - and nothing indicates to anything like these two returning anyway. Relax and enjoy the ride ...

[Hoop]

Well,Im betting the Fed will chicken out and postpone the interest rate increase--but trying to understand what is going on behind the scenes in China (and the whole Chinese Psyche is a different story altogether) How they will act in spite of what the Gov does is any ones guess--add to that Brazil and the other emerging countries and there are still many ways the wheels can fall off....Vs..some may miss some good buys---you be the judge--Is this the time for the gamble?

The inflation (or is it deflation) data (+0.17%) would not signify a FED rate increase either .... However there is some non-disciplined ground swell debating going on which make some sort of sense... They say you need to increase rates during economic good times because when the economy comes off the boil ...you will need that monetary tool to able to cut rates...
It would be interesting to see what the computer model is telling the FED..

I still get these Equedia links, this one's quite interesting, and as I know there's a strong link between the gold price in US$ and the amount of US Treasuries held by foreigners, it rings true. Other interesting ideas here about how the equities market is going to fund the US bond market as China pulls out its cash, already happening.


http://www.equedia.com/great-us-debt...m_medium=email

As I have written so often in my posts...The correlation between the equity market and the state of the economy is poor......The equity market (as are all markets) rely on "available" money..when the available money shrinks, the market momentum drops and supply and demand shifts resulting in price downtrend...Usually, but not always, the success of the bull market itself kills the bull (investors "all in" and haven't the extra money to sustain the buying momentum)...

ELZ, did you go to that Annual NZ shareholder meeting held in Hamilton?..I didn't.. but gee wizz the Waikato Times article mentioning what the guest speaker, Economist Shamubeel Eaqub had to say about Fonterra and the Dairy Industry makes for dismal reading...eh?

[Beagle]

Very grim reading. Thanks for the link Hoop. Fascinating that Fonterra's director Mr Monaghan has such a diametrically opposite view of this situation that the well respected economist Mr Eaqub and fund manager Mr Glass...remind me again which of these three gentleman has a vested interest to paddle their own canoe ? Who to believe ? Pretty easy question I would have thought.

[skid]

Come on skid, get some balls and get amongst it, the sun will still rise tomorrow even if its obscured by cloud. PS- Skiing for the week so more worried about high speed crashes than share market ones, have a nice day.

Im always amused at how you guys equate market downturns and the logic of protecting your capital with the end of the world--my balls are quite intact ,thanks.
im just finishing a 3 month trip in Southeast Asia with the dosh I saved by having a strategy--the suns been coming up here (pretty hot though)and of course it will continue.
Is having balls a good enough reason to do something economically stupid?
This whole thing may blow over--(in which case the smart money will most likely get back in)
But I wonder how many are following your strategy(or lack of)

On an entirely different note your job would be in real danger over here--They take care of their old people--we could certainly learn a few things from them about families and communities--but those are outside the global economic debate so best left to another discussion--(which may happen)

[Beagle]

Our friend does a LOT of skiing in Queenstown. One could speculate his job security and remuneration level can't be too shabby