Black Monday

[blackcap]

Very impressive gains yesterday and overnight. I keep asking myself what has changed to warrant such gains and given how quickly covid-19 is spreading here and abroad I don’t really understand why, what will the week bring is the million dollar question....

Possibly as markets are very much forward looking and they are perceiving that the measures that are being implemented are actually starting to work. In addition all the QE pumping that governments are doing is going to raise asset prices. Markets are a accumulation of assets. ANother factor (NZ specific) is that markets do not like uncertainty. So when they knew level 4 was going to be initiated with a 4 week minimum they have more clarity of what is going to happen. Just some ramblings.

[Balance]

Very impressive gains yesterday and overnight. I keep asking myself what has changed to warrant such gains and given how quickly covid-19 is spreading here and abroad I don’t really understand why, what will the week bring is the million dollar question....

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...conomy/page162

Read post #2419.

[Balance]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...conomy/page162

Read post #2419.

Biggest stimulus package ever for the US (over $2 trillion or approaching 10% GDP) getting close to being finalized and implemented.

Meanwhile, there are bargains to be had but ...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yo...of2&yptr=yahoo

Be careful!

[Oberon]

Possibly as markets are very much forward looking and they are perceiving that the measures that are being implemented are actually starting to work. In addition all the QE pumping that governments are doing is going to raise asset prices. Markets are a accumulation of assets. ANother factor (NZ specific) is that markets do not like uncertainty. So when they knew level 4 was going to be initiated with a 4 week minimum they have more clarity of what is going to happen. Just some ramblings.

I tend to agree. As for my own predictions ... there's still a lot more pain to come with the USA leading the way. On the one hand, the Dow has had two consecutive green days and it's best day since 1933. On the other hand, WHO have said the US is likely to become the world's next hot spot for the virus. Their nuclear option efforts for supporting the economy will not curb skyrocketing fatalities, an overwhelmed healthcare system and an impatient President wanting to reopen the economy in a couple of weeks. That's why my money is staying in the bank until - frankly - things completely unravel in the States.

Despite the uptick, data from prior crashes suggests another major pullback in traditional markets is coming. Here's a chart for comparison to prior crashes - food for thought:

ETiEd15XkAU5qq8.jpg

[mondograss]

The USA added more than 9000 cases yesterday alone (10,000 the day before) and is now third behind China and Italy in the total number of cases. Their death rate is a lot lower (roughly consistent with Germany and South Korea which is probably due to their much larger health system) but expect that to increase as the pressure grows on their health system and it starts getting into the poorer areas with limited healthcare access. This is interesting for those that like looking at numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Joshuatree]

Volatility index veery high
Gold surging
Dead cat bounce but just my opinion be careful out there n every way.
Int that tea price is up re 30% in a week and coffee 22%.
Managed to get my last coffee at my cafe yest afternoon, I was the only one there,god it was good. Owner said they had just stopped paying rent.Come what may. Imagine if that is happening all around the country and the domino effect.

[workingdad]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...conomy/page162

Read post #2419.

Yeah good points and to others responding to that post of mine. I understand them throwing everything at economies, business and markets but from a lay perspective companies are still going to be hurting as are countries. Unemployment, borrowing and industries falling flat. Globally the GDPs are taking a hit and flow on effect of the house of cards given such high P/E s seem to be a fairly considerable unknown. A typical bear is more substantial than what we have seen yet and the driving force of the bear is still in play.

I’m keen to jump back in but I’m still hesitant. I may miss some gains or the boat all together but I am feeling more comfortable in avoiding the risk if this is a drawn out affair. Not trying to be doom merchant but my venue of this in the health sector is perhaps tainted for lack of a better term.

[Entrep]

Keen to hear ratkin and bull view on this jump

[ratkin]

Keen to hear ratkin and bull view on this jump

Short term opportunity may go as high as 20% but we still in a bear market so it will likely fall back again. Many will be sucked in by it for fear of missing out. That is ok if you can time your exit ok.

Best hope for the US economy is to ignore the deaths and keep going, they have left it too late to worry about controlling it

Have we seen the low on the nz market? Who knows, but the economy is stuffed and we have gone from being the worlds best performing market so people still have too high expectations. Might take a while to beat the optimism out of them.

Only NZ Stock I am truly happy owning is FPH and it the only one I have a meaningful holding in

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Two must reads for anyone investing right now. The US is on the brink of being in the s***


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56