Black Monday

[blackcap]

The USA added more than 9000 cases yesterday alone (10,000 the day before) and is now third behind China and Italy in the total number of cases. Their death rate is a lot lower (roughly consistent with Germany and South Korea which is probably due to their much larger health system) but expect that to increase as the pressure grows on their health system and it starts getting into the poorer areas with limited healthcare access. This is interesting for those that like looking at numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Pain etc aside, a high death rate amoung elderly in the USA will not impede the stock markets. From a market and economic perspective the US is possibly doing the right thing. Even Cuomo the NY governor seems to think that keeping people at home is not the long term solution. From a humanitarian perspective, we shall have to wait till the virus has passed and can see how deadly or not it really was.

[bull....]

Keen to hear ratkin and bull view on this jump

my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone.

[skid]

I have just had a bizarre ,but not an overly unrealistic, thought .........................The fact that Donald Trump has decided he is perfectly willing to sacrifice many,many american lives,by reopening america to business as usual(and the disease) can actually make their market,and in turn other markets go up....he has blatently decided on ''business'' over the spread of the virus in america.....How does one process that information? It will undoubtetly cause a humanitarian crises if he does it....and it could backfire badly ...but what an ethical deleama.

[blackcap]

I have just had a bizarre ,but not an overly unrealistic, thought .........................The fact that Donald Trump has decided he is perfectly willing to sacrifice many,many american lives,by reopening america to business as usual(and the disease) can actually make their market,and in turn other markets go up....he has blatently decided on ''business'' over the spread of the virus in america.....How does one process that information? It will undoubtetly cause a humanitarian crises if he does it....and it could backfire badly ...but what an ethical deleama.

It is an interesting ethical dilemma which countries to an extent grapple with every day. For instance you could argue that the road toll has an inverse correlation with the speed limit whilst our economic benefit has a positive correlation with the speed limit. Another example is health and Pharmac funding. We allow a certain number of people to die prematurely every year for economic considerations.

[skid]

my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone.

The real decision is to whether to sell into the bounce(dead cat?) or hold on, banking on the start of recovery..................so far bounces have been followed by falls ...but who knows?.....I guess if corporations get a big enough freebie to play with?...............One thinbg for sure ...Trump only cares about big business....he will scarifice all for it.........................But can they perform?....do they need to perform?

[BlackPeter]

Pain etc aside, a high death rate amoung elderly in the USA will not impede the stock markets. From a market and economic perspective the US is possibly doing the right thing. Even Cuomo the NY governor seems to think that keeping people at home is not the long term solution. From a humanitarian perspective, we shall have to wait till the virus has passed and can see how deadly or not it really was.

Probably a discussion for a different thread. But I agree that societies should have this discussion. At the moment it looks like we are happy to inflict unlimited damage onto our economy in order to save (some) lives. And yes, every life is important. However the price for that is that many small and some larger companies will not make it. Suicide rates will undoubtedly go up due to many people seeing their livelihoods killed off. Our tax take will drop and our debts will rise brutally, which means that next year we e.g. won't be able anymore to pay for many cures we still can pay for. And our health system decides already today that some people need to die early because we can't afford to pay for their cure - how much worse might this get?

Basically the famous trolley dilemma. A trolley is running downhill towards a switch - and one of the tracks is blocked with tens of thousands of mainly elderly and health impaired people, and the other track is blocked with an yet unknown number of mainly younger people, start up entrepreneurs and younger people who will get cancer or some other expensive disease over the next say decade.

Government threw the switch and obviously - nobody knows at this stage whether they made the right decision (and I suspect the view on what is right will always depend on which track the individual is sitting), but I think a bit wider discussion about the cost of both options (and I assume there are many other tracks in between) would be appropriate.

[Timesurfer]

The mind boggles at the prices being driven up. There is a long way to go before we fully appreciate what the impact of this thing is going to be.
In the UK for example, case numbers are estimated to be 10 times recorded because they are only testing people in hospitals, so the bulk of people are not recorded. For instance, rest homes are not tested, so if you get in there or die in a rest home you do not die of COVID-19 officially. Thy also have numerous doctors on ventilators and these are people in their 30s. While some people show no symptoms but are carriers, if you are lucky enough to have the right genes then you cough your lungs up no matter your age. Lots yet to understand about this thing and what the final impact will be globally.

[bottomfeeder]

I am just sitting tight until the rest of my equity holdings, fall to nil value then I am out if the share market.

[Lewylewylewy]

I think the recent bounce was started by lots of newbies starting trading (as supported from data from sharesies) then continued due to rally following rise then continued due to stats nz's recent announcements saying that everythings good.

Im not sure what to believe, but i do think that there were some bargains had for businesses whos price is below nta where nta is heavily dependant on real estate. I.e. AIA and SUM.

[ratkin]

I think the recent bounce was started by lots of newbies starting trading (as supported from data from sharesies) then continued due to rally following rise then continued due to stats nz's recent announcements saying that everythings good.

Im not sure what to believe, but i do think that there were some bargains had for businesses whos price is below nta where nta is heavily dependant on real estate. I.e. AIA and SUM.

Certainly some bargains about Two days ago when the market crashed, it the people jumping in now at 20% higher valuations who may be caught. Best to buy on the very bad days. Ones where you are too scared to check your portfolio value.
Very easy on days like today to feel you are missing out by not jumping in. Fear of being left behind in the race back to the top.