Black Monday

[Balance]

Would you rather get 100 shares of X for $1 each or 200 for 50c each, notwithstanding that $1 or lower represents "good value"?

Does not really make much of a difference - it used to matter in NZ which was why companies kept doing share splits to keep their share prices 'low & cheap' but 'high' sp stocks like XRO, ATM, FPH & MFT have showed investors that it's quality which matters.

[Balance]

That's good news ...to me anyway

Might get the house painted after all this year.

Agreed - time the tradesmen out there get a wake-up call.

Was talking to a developer just the other day and he said that it's a nice change to have tradesmen contacting him to confirm work (after lockdown) than the perennial chasing after them to finish their jobs.

[Oberon]

My main beef with tradesmen are the luxurious windows some provide themselves for when they're turning up. But anyhoo...

We can do stuff all about the rest of the world, but if there's a chance achieving elimination is in the cards, I'm more than happy for them to extend the lock down. The US has been a train wreck from the beginning and they appear fated to a second wave, given how itchy they are to reopen the economy. We're in a much more favorable position so best we take full advantage.

[bull....]

another big potential disaster for any business when level 4 ends

Top Pork Producer Shuts Key Plant and Warns of Meat Shortfall

The world’s biggest pork producer is shuttering a major U.S. plant indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak among employees

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

[Balance]

another big potential disaster for any business when level 4 ends

Top Pork Producer Shuts Key Plant and Warns of Meat Shortfall

The world’s biggest pork producer is shuttering a major U.S. plant indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak among employees

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

Great opportunity in this instance for pork exporters from other countries.

US is so stuffed - they were having the time of their lives indulging in ‘spread Covid-19 parties’ until a month ago.

[Valuegrowth]

There are some winners. Essential businesses are one of the first winners. Listed companies like Fonterra, A2, Synlait, Scales, Seeka, T&G Global and fishing company Sanford should benefit in a situation like this. Investors cannot buy shares of Tegel Poultry as they delisted it. Inghams Group Ltd (ASX: ING) is another poultry company in the meat group. As value and current stocks prices are two different things, in-depth analysis is needed to pick quality stocks and mitigate risks involve in stocks.

[blobbles]

I'm quite annoyed by how frequently I'm hearing people say they could not have forecast an infectious disease scenario. Last I checked these, like war and famine, have been frequently recurring themes throughout history. I think we can safely add these in to our modelling.

"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer." - Kehlog Albran, The Profit.

Yeah, it's stupid, I picked it, pulled everything in Jan/Feb and new something was going to pop the bubble since last year when I had been moving to gold. I also bought a lot of extra necessities, about 40 cans, heaps of pasta/rice/tomato etc and replanted the garden suspecting it was going to go mental. You only had to look at the early info we had on the virus from China. Once I heard it was 4-14 days without symptoms, I knew it was going to go worldwide (if it hadn't already) so prepped for it. I was thinking about a property purchase as well, which we pulled out of. So far, everything that I suspected would happen has happened. I aren't some sort of prophet, I just think it's obvious what is happening and what was going to happen given the characteristics of the virus. I told a few of my friends and family what I saw happening and at the time they thought I was batty - but after a few have lost their job, they are now taking it seriously.

Massive deleveraging happening with a likely 1-3 year depression IMO. Keep your job if you have it and if you are in debt, you may be on the right or wrong side of it. Tourism is screwed for at least 2 years and it's 14% of NZ economy. I am picking our GDP down around 20% over the next year, the US probably worse. It could be enough to tip something over in the US and cause massive problems due to their inept leadership. By tip something over, I mean potentially them going to a war footing (because that's how America rolls these days) and doing something like invading Venezuela, or hell, why not Mexico. Trump needs attention diverted, so I would not put them past a cassus belli event and an invasion. Seems crazy to think that it could occur, but Trump/America lash out like children when something doesn't go their way.

We have already had helicopter money, expect this to grow ridiculously and it will be less and less effective. I am guessing around 15t will be printed in the US before this is over. We could easily get a financial crisis next, so have transferred a lot of funds around to prepare. Also have cash on hand. Money in NZ banks is not safe due to the OBR, I suggest people think about that.

There's a lot more pain ahead and people are delusional if they think we are just going back to BAU in a month or two. Unemployment will be 10-15% in 6 months or so and house prices will be dropping off the cliff as long as they don't get massive government support (which may happen).

Wave 2 and 3 IMO are the ones we have to worry about as by that time people will be sick of the virus restrictions and less likely to comply.

[winner69]

Yeah, it's stupid, I picked it, pulled everything in Jan/Feb and new something was going to pop the bubble since last year when I had been moving to gold. I also bought a lot of extra necessities, about 40 cans, heaps of pasta/rice/tomato etc and replanted the garden suspecting it was going to go mental. You only had to look at the early info we had on the virus from China. Once I heard it was 4-14 days without symptoms, I knew it was going to go worldwide (if it hadn't already) so prepped for it. I was thinking about a property purchase as well, which we pulled out of. So far, everything that I suspected would happen has happened. I aren't some sort of prophet, I just think it's obvious what is happening and what was going to happen given the characteristics of the virus. I told a few of my friends and family what I saw happening and at the time they thought I was batty - but after a few have lost their job, they are now taking it seriously.

Massive deleveraging happening with a likely 1-3 year depression IMO. Keep your job if you have it and if you are in debt, you may be on the right or wrong side of it. Tourism is screwed for at least 2 years and it's 14% of NZ economy. I am picking our GDP down around 20% over the next year, the US probably worse. It could be enough to tip something over in the US and cause massive problems due to their inept leadership. By tip something over, I mean potentially them going to a war footing (because that's how America rolls these days) and doing something like invading Venezuela, or hell, why not Mexico. Trump needs attention diverted, so I would not put them past a cassus belli event and an invasion. Seems crazy to think that it could occur, but Trump/America lash out like children when something doesn't go their way.

We have already had helicopter money, expect this to grow ridiculously and it will be less and less effective. I am guessing around 15t will be printed in the US before this is over. We could easily get a financial crisis next, so have transferred a lot of funds around to prepare. Also have cash on hand. Money in NZ banks is not safe due to the OBR, I suggest people think about that.

There's a lot more pain ahead and people are delusional if they think we are just going back to BAU in a month or two. Unemployment will be 10-15% in 6 months or so and house prices will be dropping off the cliff as long as they don't get massive government support (which may happen).

Wave 2 and 3 IMO are the ones we have to worry about as by that time people will be sick of the virus restrictions and less likely to comply.

Looking pretty grim isn’t it blobbles.

[Traderwannabe]

Blobbles, you mentioned you have cash transferred around, but that NZ Banks are not safe, can I ask where you have put your cash? If you would rather not share that’s ok too. Anyone else like to share what they have done with their cash.
I’ve purchased some kiwi bonds, and have term deposits in the Kiwibank as I feel it’s the safest bank as it’s owned by the government. But very keen to hear what others are doing...

[ratkin]

Blobbles, you mentioned you have cash transferred around, but that NZ Banks are not safe, can I ask where you have put your cash? If you would rather not share that’s ok too. Anyone else like to share what they have done with their cash.
I’ve purchased some kiwi bonds, and have term deposits in the Kiwibank as I feel it’s the safest bank as it’s owned by the government. But very keen to hear what others are doing...

I have done very similar, Kiwi bonds at 1% (maybe lower now) and a range of soon to mature term deposits, biggest kiwi bank and ASB.
Short term banks seem ok, all the stimulus saw to that, but until I am ready to get back in the markets, feel safer with govt bonds. It not like their a huge difference in the rates, and right now safety first.