Black Monday

[dln]

From what I can see that makes sense. Credible sources said the total number of deaths in the US would likely total 240k deaths before reaching a herd immunity level. They are currently at 65k deaths and are re-opening some states so there will likely be about four cycles. First cycle seems to take about one to two months of virus transmission followed by six to eight weeks of quarantine measures. However as they get towards higher levels of immunity that duration between quarantine measures will be longer due to slower propogation within the remaining population.

There is still no evidence that there IS any (lasting) immunity from re-infection (there are plenty of RNA virus's where this is the case, Hep C for instance).
If so, that paints a very different picture than the 'herd-immunity' proponents imagine.

[Panda-NZ-]

Yes without answering the immunity question reopening is profoundly risky. If it doesn't even last months then 2% death rate becomes 5% and so on annually.

Herd immunity countries could become no-go zones and if a vaccine is not possible in an acceptable timeframe...

[Valuegrowth]

Many will miss winners with the endless media negativity that frightens many. Two things to watch in the markets are volatility and winning stocks.

The lower interest rates and bond yields is often credited with supporting higher prices in the stock market. Will it prove this time too?

https://www.multpl.com/20-year-treasury-rate

20 Year Treasury Rate

[Balance]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...ovid-19-impact

Life continues and NZ’s primary exports continue to power along.

It’s all about picking winners or over-sold deafen (beaten) up stocks.

How much of $330 billion sitting in bank deposits will be looking for better returns, yields and income as the deposits mature into an ever decreasing interest rate environment?

[kiora]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...ovid-19-impact

Life continues and NZ’s primary exports continue to power along.

It’s all about picking winners or over-sold deafen up stocks.

How much of $330 billion sitting in bank deposits will be looking for better returns, yields and income as the deposits mature into an ever decreasing interest rate environment?

The silence is definitely deafening on over-sold deafen up stocks
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...pology-society

[Balance]

The silence is definitely deafening on over-sold deafen🤪 up stocks
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...pology-society

And it’s back to the farming sector to cushion and rescue NZ from the economic devastation of Covid-19. 👍

[kiora]

Ouch
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...itions/610261/

[workingdad]

Ouch
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...itions/610261/

Interesting read. Pretty accurate too. The good ol USA is not what it used to be.

In response to some of the posts. Between the fed and the short squeeze the bounce has indeed been strong but there is still so much of covids effects to play out. In the USA where restrictions are being lifted, mass gatherings are going ahead with public obedience and disobedience will ensure it hangs around for a long time yet. Companies with ****e balance sheets get propped up with government funds but in many cases it only delays the inevitable. Unemployment continuing to rise, consumer spending will be falling off a cliff, supply lines from China will be disrupted from the tensions between the two countries as the rhetoric from the USA towards China increases. All that cash in banks, well some of it may find its way into markets but the generation that holds a lot of it are risk adverse and don’t understand markets going up in such harsh economic times so I don’t see it all moving into chasing better returns, particularly as companies stop dividends. But the flip side is how long before kiwi savers start pulling money out on hardship and will the government make this easier.

There is no end of negative news from companies and economies ahead so my thoughts, it’s only a matter of time.

[bull....]

Interesting read. Pretty accurate too. The good ol USA is not what it used to be.

In response to some of the posts. Between the fed and the short squeeze the bounce has indeed been strong but there is still so much of covids effects to play out. In the USA where restrictions are being lifted, mass gatherings are going ahead with public obedience and disobedience will ensure it hangs around for a long time yet. Companies with ****e balance sheets get propped up with government funds but in many cases it only delays the inevitable. Unemployment continuing to rise, consumer spending will be falling off a cliff, supply lines from China will be disrupted from the tensions between the two countries as the rhetoric from the USA towards China increases. All that cash in banks, well some of it may find its way into markets but the generation that holds a lot of it are risk adverse and don’t understand markets going up in such harsh economic times so I don’t see it all moving into chasing better returns, particularly as companies stop dividends. But the flip side is how long before kiwi savers start pulling money out on hardship and will the government make this easier.

There is no end of negative news from companies and economies ahead so my thoughts, it’s only a matter of time.

I agree there;s a certain portion of society that will never leave the comfort of fixed income

[bull....]

another big risk going forward for the markets is trump ramping up criticism and talking of payback towards china for the releasing the virus on america from there bat lab , i dont know of course if this true about the bat lab or just another bogus theory like ebola came from african's rooting monkeys but it could eend up being covid + tradewars 2 combined heading into the american election. which of course to leads to another issue of the fed printing which has to paid back one way or another one day. will china continue to finance this? under heated bat attack i dont know but they have plenty of there own issues at home to contend with so might not be in a position too anyway.