Black Monday

[dobby41]

8.5% below all time high on 20 February 2020.

Interesting, isn't it?

Must be like a stab into the heart of the doomsday merchants who failed to take into consideration the massive fall in interest rates (positively impacting on valuations) and the fact that many of the technology companies can still operate in the lockdown world successfully.

It's like people don't think there'll be any real impact to earnings etc.

[Balance]

It's like people don't think there'll be any real impact to earnings etc.

Simplistically, Valuation = earnings x cost of capital x future growth

So think through what has happened, and what the market is saying.

[BlackPeter]

Which country would you rather be living in right now? USA? Italy? Russia? China? UK? France? Brazil?
I thank my lucky stars I am living in NZ.

I realise the question is rhetorical and intended to make us appreciate our situation relative to others, but I find them overly simplistic and defeatist... sure, almost everyone on this forum would prefer to be living in NZ at the moment... but shouldn't we be striving for the most optimal response to Covid, regardless of how poor or unfortunate other countries' responses have been?

My health and economic expectations of the NZ Government are very high - they have been blessed with an extremely favorable starting point by virtue of (for example) our geographic moat, low population density and lower proportion of older/vulnerable citizens.

Not a particular fan of our current government, but while they clearly missed their targets in many areas, I think they got some things as well right.

And hey - just looking at the list of countries above - they have all not just a much higher death toll due to Covid-19 (and most of them still rapidly rising), the majority of them have lying, corrupt and populist heads of government who are happy to do anything to stay in power - even if it means to throw their own country under the bus. And that's what most of them are doing - just look at the orange gorilla basically encouraging his followers to commit suicide.

So good to live in NZ, even if the current government might not be perfect ; But hey - while the current opposition might have done some things different in the current crisis (even if its not quite clear, what) - I am sure they would have made other mistakes instead. National have currently a unique chance to publish and promote a better way forward form here. It is just - while it is good that Simon is working together with the government in the recent crisis, I haven't really heard so far a lot of alternative proposals for the best way to get our of this crisis from him. Where are his ideas? Where is his leadership? Does National really have the right leader?

Let's be kind to each other and enjoy to still live in a country where both main political parties (while not perfect) value the interest of the country above their own desire to cling to power, are sensible and not a danger to democracy. This is much more than one can say about most of the other countries listed above (basically all with the possible exception of France).

[workingdad]

Simplistically, Valuation = earnings x cost of capital x future growth

So think through what has happened, and what the market is saying.

I would have put it at Valuation = earnings x Future growth x federal reserve x federal reserve x federal reserve haha

[Balance]

I would have put it at Valuation = earnings x Future growth x federal reserve x federal reserve x federal reserve haha

You have hit the nail on the head!

Don't fight the Fed.

[macduffy]

It may look like hindsight

Well. yes it does.

[Balance]

https://www.wcvb.com/article/moderna...ials/32404799#

Moderna vaccine moving into Phase 2 and if successful, Phase 3 in July 2020.

Sounds like FDA & CDC pulling out all the stops to facilitate the trial of this vaccine.

[bull....]

trump finally got his wish the jan futures fed implied rate went negative today meaning negative rates next year and meaning the fed just dug a bigger hole for itself.

notice gold and bitcoin had big jumps today , i posted many months ago gold chart was breaking out 1900 test to come so thats playing out nicely

[bull....]

us futures seem to be front running( up 200pts at the moment) the non farm payrolls tonight est 21 million lost there jobs so market must be thinking maybe its gonna be only 20 million

[winner69]

Jeez if Macquarie slash their dividend things must be bad over in OZ