Black Monday

[Entrep]

Let's follow mum, dad and nearly everyone else on sharesies into the abyssAttachment 11566

[Timesurfer]

Well Monday was all positive and green fields everywhere couldn't possibly go wrong.
Tuesday on the other hand, looks like some of the bigger players are hanging the sharsies investors out to dry.

[Joshuatree]

This maybe of int to some, my eyes quickly glazed over.


https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/meet-the-feds-global-plunge-protection-team/

[bull....]

RBNZ nearly doubles quantitative easing programme to $60 billion; Reaffirms forward guidance to keep OCR at 0.25%, but specifically says it's prepared to reduce the OCR further

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/1049...rward-guidance

The Committee noted that a negative OCR will become an option in future, although at present financial institutions are not yet operationally ready.

We expect to see retail interest rates decline further as lower wholesale borrowing costs are passed through to retail customers


which all means term deposits going down as far as needed to make everyone spend there money

[moka]

Francis Fukuyama says the thing that determines a country’s effective crisis response to coronavirus is not whether they are an autocracy or a democracy. There will be some high-performing autocracies, and some with disastrous outcomes. There will be a similar variance in outcomes among democracies.
The crucial determinant in performance will not be the type of regime, but the state’s capacity and, above all, trust in government.
What matters in the end is whether citizens trust their leaders, and whether those leaders preside over a competent and effective state.
The capacity of people at the top, and their judgment, determine whether outcomes are good or bad.
In a democracy no less than in a dictatorship, citizens have to believe that the executive knows what it is doing. And trust, unfortunately, is exactly what is missing in America today.
The United States today faces a crisis of political trust. Trump’s base—the 35–40 percent of the population that will support him no matter what—has been fed a diet of conspiracy stories for the past four years concerning the “deep state,” and taught to distrust expertise that does not actively support the president.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...avirus/609025/

[moka]

For those of you who read and enjoyed the book The Fourth Turning Neil Howe talks about 80 year cycles and coronavirus. The pandemic is a mood accelerator. History is seasonal and winter is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9FT1ObIYLc

[Bjauck]

Reminder too that NZX50 is not reflective of NZ economy but specific heavyweight stocks like ATM, FPH, AIA etc.

True and As time has gone by and more companies are taken over by foreign concerns or leave for an Australian listing the NZX50 has become gradually less refelective of the NZ economy too.

[winner69]

For those of you who read and enjoyed the book The Fourth Turning Neil Howe talks about 80 year cycles and coronavirus. The pandemic is a mood accelerator. History is seasonal and winter is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9FT1ObIYLc

That Fourth Turning is one hell of a book

Generations written before that was pretty good as well.

[peat]

What matters in the end is whether citizens trust their leaders, and those leaders and their judgment determine whether outcomes are good or bad.

edited for brevity.

I find this interesting to apply to NZ. Jacinda has gained a lot of trust with her humanitarian approach and perhaps this has improved our outcome.
I must admit though, especially in the Twitterverse, there is a lot of strident criticism.
But I suspect criticism of her response is not well founded enough to support outright defiance for most (unless you're Brian Tamaki) as even outlying opinion holders seem to recognise the strategy is effective and seemingly successful, even if you would have preferred it was implemented differently.

[Balance]

RBNZ predictions:

Unemployment : 9% -12.5%

House prices : minus 9%

Interest rates : banks need to get ready & be prepared for negative interest rates