Black Monday

[JBmurc]

RBNZ predictions:

Unemployment : 9% -12.5%

House prices : minus 9%

Interest rates : banks need to get ready & be prepared for negative interest rates

What ... but I heard the COL Budget billions spend up we will have thousands more new builders to build thousands more houses for all the newly employed environment workers ? surely the COL have the skills to invest the borrowed Billions wisely (Or was the Nat TV ad at the last election on the money with the COL rowing boat going nowhere from mindless paddling)

[nztx]

What ... but I heard the COL Budget billions spend up we will have thousands more new builders to build thousands more houses for all the newly employed environment workers ? surely the COL have the skills to invest the borrowed Billions wisely (Or was the Nat TV ad at the last election on the money with the COL rowing boat going nowhere from mindless paddling)

Just when those billions of promised trees to supply the wood were still mostly not planted yet
and still a figment of Shane Jones's bloated overactive blowhard imagination..

What will the COL do to fill the gap ?

Ban all Exports of Timber ?

Or perhaps buy back whole mega shiploads of our timber from China ?

We'll have to see if it takes another 5 years to see how many of the eager budding builders know how to engage a hammer..
those who dont decide in the interim that they liked their former existence far better, far away from the whims & dreams of the Wellington incompetents inhabiting the in-gang..

Is the whole plan just another instant pie in the sky dream that will lose itself a short way down the track, like so many of the in-gang's other growing myriad of fanciful unworkable dreams that have mysteriously turned to disaster, rarely to see spotlight again .. ?

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...973e06e1a0f388

Doom merchant’s prediction for the next 2 years.

[BlackPeter]

You are incorrect. Those made in China are fake knock offs and not official MAGA hats.
https://apnews.com/afs:Content:6391630154
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/do...ump-hat-china/

Here is video evidence that they are being created in the USA. Can you show video evidence of official MAGA hats being created in China?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmpqYRkR9F8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE8M7cL00U4

The latter video, at the 5 minute mark addresses the argument of "Hats being made in China".

You must be kidding - the video is basically a commercial made by a Trump lackey for a Trump lackey with a vested interest in selling this stuff. If she says it, it must be true???

[jonu]

You must be kidding - the video is basically a commercial made by a Trump lackey for a Trump lackey with a vested interest in selling this stuff. If she says it, it must be true???

You haven't fallen into the "fake news" camp have you BlackPeter. You wouldn't be subscribing to Donald's tactics?

[GOAT]

You must be kidding - the video is basically a commercial made by a Trump lackey for a Trump lackey with a vested interest in selling this stuff. If she says it, it must be true???

Business Insider has a centre-left bias.. why would they be making Trump commercials? Check all their content on Trump, it's mostly negative hit pieces.

So all those people in that video who are working in the factory making MAGA hats are paid actors?

I'm still waiting for you to post some evidence of official MAGA hats being made in China.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...973e06e1a0f388

Doom merchant’s prediction for the next 2 years.

It's hard to take them serious when many of these dooms day merchants have been calling for a crash every year.. eventually they will be right like a broken clock.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9HvukE56yM
EMohamed Al-Erian: We will have the worst recession since the Great Depression

“The fact that a central bank is willing to go selectively into high yield is revolutionary. Central banks are not supposed to take on credit and default risk, but that’s what you when you do when you buy fallen angels or buy the index and they said they intend to do both.
Game theory – it matters whether you are playing a one-round game or a multi-round game… if it turns out this is a multi-round game it is going to complicate things down the road i.e. defacto debt forgiveness. The problem is that there isn’t a better alternative, this sudden stop is so deep that we can’t just let them default because we don’t know how to default in an orderly way. Defaults have consequences and what everyone is trying to avoid is liquidity problems becoming solvency problems. In liquidity problems most mistakes are recoverable with time, in a solvency crisis capital is permanently impaired.”

[bull....]

Shovel-ready projects to be unveiled 'within weeks' - finance minister

but

But there would be “capacity constraints” because of a downturn in migrant labour that New Zealand relies on for such work because of coronavirus travel restrictions.
Some projects might also need Kiwis to be trained up to work on them — a hint that there could be a potential delay until that can happen.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...nance-minister

so not really much of the infrastructure spend up will happen in a hurry so discount that from the gdp lift and spend up. good things take time they say


and

ANZ economists now predict the Reserve Bank will increase the quantitative easing programme to $90 billion by August if not sooner

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/105...g-programme-90

must be getting ready to announce the biggest boost to jobseeker in history ( im guessing) the reserve bank can pay for it with some more money printing.

[moka]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/premium/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504669&objectid=12331571

Why the coming emerging markets debt crisis will be messy. Large investment funds could play hardball with developing countries that default.

The kindling for another big emerging markets debt crisis has been accumulating for years. Investor demand for higher returns has allowed smaller, lesser-developed and more vulnerable "frontier" countries to tap bond markets at a record pace in the past decade. Their debt burden has climbed from less than US$1tn in 2005 to US$3.2tn, equal to 114 per cent of GDP for frontier markets. Emerging markets as a whole owe a total of US$71tn.

Rather than the banks and governments — the primary creditors in the mammoth debt crisis that racked the developing world in the 1980s and 1990s — creditors are nowadays largely a multitude of bond funds. They are trickier to co-ordinate and corral into restructuring agreements.

Many investment funds have piled into EM bonds in recent years, and the prospect of deep and broad losses could be ruinous to some heavily-exposed funds.
"The interests we represent are those of the millions of individuals, and thousands of financial advisers and institutions who have entrusted their money to us to invest on their behalf."

"This pandemic will quickly escalate from a health crisis to a humanitarian crisis, and ultimately to a solvency crisis. Political stability will be the last domino to fall. But my biggest concern is that this crisis will be much deeper and more prolonged than people anticipate, which leaves a lot of space for another shoe to drop in the global financial crisis."

[bull....]

Chart today, hope your bounce trade still open bull

Attachment 11578

just about back at top of the range , then it be time to decide if i stay long for break out of the range or sell the top of range for a chance it go back to bottom of the range. oh alwways so much to mull over