IMO markets simply wont be able to ignore two things which I suspect are inevitable:
1) the 'second wave' which will cause an increase rate of excess deaths, and increased and/or longer enforced economic restrictions
2) the medium/long term effects of changing human behaviours on economic activity. I've banged on about it in a different thread, but evidence is mounting that its not the lock downs, but rather changing human behaviours that will have the most significant effect on economic activity.
good points many businesses or even industries may not survive the pandemic period due to changing behaviour. As for the markets the disconnect between the two is entirely blamed on the fed and its money printing which has been going on since the GFC.
probably the main reason the markets are falling now is the feds balance sheet has stopped going up recently proving the point I made on this thread quite a while ago that the market is built on quicksand of money printing and the fed will have to print for ever now to stop the market crashing.
But at the end of the day the fed will never stop a crash due to your point on human behaviour when people lose faith in the money printing only making the rich richer and the poor poorer. need balance in life does everyone
I'm quite nervous/excited that something big is going to happen soon.
Its more than a feeling (ask Boston!) and is based on those magic shapes (harmonic patterns) I see that dont work all the time (but when they do!)
I posted that on Fri in the Oceania thread but was more appropriate here
I must say I was hoping for more but I guess a couple of percent is a start. Markets never behave exactly as you expect.
Friend just sold their house in St Heliers over the weekend well above CV - early auction (brought 2 weeks forward) as a returning NZ family made a drop dead offer above reserve.
Still a severe shortage of well located homes for sale but plenty of apartments and terrace houses in the 'newer' areas according to the real estate agent.
Drive around Auckland's established areas and all the houses with 'For Sale' signs have 'Sold' plastered over them.
Read into it what you will but I believe we will not get a property crash - a correction, yes but not a crash.
Friend just sold their house in St Heliers over the weekend well above CV - early auction (brought 2 weeks forward) as a returning NZ family made a drop dead offer above reserve.
Still a severe shortage of well located homes for sale but plenty of apartments and terrace houses in the 'newer' areas according to the real estate agent.
Drive around Auckland's established areas and all the houses with 'For Sale' signs have 'Sold' plastered over them.
Read into it what you will but I believe we will not get a property crash - a correction, yes but not a crash.
I have no doubt we are in for a market correction.
Just that currently we don't have an equilibrium, more buyers than properties but once unemployment kicks in, different story.
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Originally Posted by bull....
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