Black Monday

[Balance]

Yes, I agree there is a big risk to New Zealand on the horizon if the aviation comes under the gun for its contribution to climate change. Aviation is an "easy target". NZ would not be the same in many ways without easy, accessible, affordable domestic and international air travel. Well, it would be the same as it has been under covid.

Not a problem - I will pay my share willingly as long as other countries do the same.

Think of island states & airports like Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai and Charlotte (hub in the middle of nowhere in US) - will impact them far far more than NZ.

Then think also of the US where taking a flight is like taking a bus ride. Been there and done that - 10 cities in 2 weeks, Crisscrossing the continent.

[Hoop]

Markets struggle with unexpected regulatory risk...climate change may well be the next black swan..

1% of people cause half of global aviation emissions – study climate change agenda defined?

https://www.theguardian.com/business...study-covid-19

“If you want to resolve climate change and we need to redesign [aviation], then we should start at the top, where a few ‘super emitters’ contribute massively to global warming,” said Stefan Gössling at Linnaeus University in Sweden, who led the new study.

The frequent flyers identified in the study travelled about 35,000 miles (56,000km) a year, Gössling said, equivalent to three long-haul flights a year, one short-haul flight per month, or some combination of the two.


That would include many that fly from/to New Zealand and effect us as a community & AIR disproportionately...

I think the next black swan could be the market valuation suddenly returning (correcting) to once again correlating with basic value fundamentals..Why should this be a totally unexpected event?..Because most investors have learn't to ignore Sharemarket Theory and the huge influx of Newbie's have no idea it even exists..

[peat]

I think the next black swan could be the market valuation suddenly returning (correcting) to once again correlating with basic value fundamentals..Why should this be a totally unexpected event?..Because most investors have learn't to ignore Sharemarket Theory and the huge influx of Newbie's have no idea it even exists..

The question is whether basic value fundamentals have changed, and if so why. The likely answer is low or no interest rates. So I would tend to think that only when interest rates rise will there be this redawning of fundamentals. There have been some murmurings in the bond market recently..... whether that is an inflection point remains to be seen

[Hoop]

The question is whether basic value fundamentals have changed, and if so why. The likely answer is low or no interest rates. So I would tend to think that only when interest rates rise will there be this redawning of fundamentals. There have been some murmurings in the bond market recently..... whether that is an inflection point remains to be seen

The murmurings are real..There has been a sharp rise in NZ Swap rates...Also been rises around the world as well.
The 3yr swaps have been hovering around close to 0% for the last 2 months..That ended on the 9th November. Have we just witnessed a charted nadir?..From 0.01% on the 6th November to 0.27% today.The last time it was this high was back in mid June. 0.3% is the technical resistance line, if it goes above that line we have a breakout. How that effects the future plans of the politically embattled RBNZ we will have to wait and see....

What is happening in the last 9 days could be a fundamental change especially if there is a breakout..How the markets reacting is this at the moment is predictably unfazed and uncaring..as to say "who cares a sh1t about fundamentals"..

I've been harping on about bubbles for the last 3 years with fundamentally extremely overvalued Equity markets...I feel like a stopped clocked permabear with a Dr Doom complex....But I do believe the central banks manipulations to preserve or increase asset value (equities, property, etc) as an answer to keep the already recessed economy from correcting (downwards) is sending monetary theory down a rabbit hole..

We have to remember the very reliable indicators were predicting a 2020 recession before covid was heard of..Basically by the year 2020 the economic cycle had matured to the point of being near to its endgame as all cycle behaviours eventually do. Covid getting in the way gave the economy a high risk of entering a Depression..so the Central Banks had no choice but to use unconventional monetary tools to rescue the economy..and the results has been unpredictably bizarre..

[Hoop]

Attachment 12094
Chart mentioned in my last post...For 10 yr Govt bonds the chart looked similar until today where it suddenly fell back to 0% (Reserve Bank lending to Banks action??)

[winner69]

Wet day today ...and cold ...so reading The Great Demographic Reversal - Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival. Authors: Goodhart, Charles, Pradhan, Manoj


Inflation and higher interest rates on way back ...maybe even from next year. That’ll be fun.

Quite readable so far

[couta1]

Trump getting itchy fingers to send a few missiles Iran's way, could get interesting.

[peat]

The murmurings are real..There has been a sharp rise in NZ Swap rates...Also been rises around the world as well.
The 3yr swaps have been hovering around close to 0% for the last 2 months..That ended on the 9th November. Have we just witnessed a charted nadir?..From 0.01% on the 6th November to 0.27% today.The last time it was this high was back in mid June. 0.3% is the technical resistance line, if it goes above that line we have a breakout. How that effects the future plans of the politically embattled RBNZ we will have to wait and see....

What is happening in the last 9 days could be a fundamental change especially if there is a breakout..How the markets reacting is this at the moment is predictably unfazed and uncaring..as to say "who cares a sh1t about fundamentals"..

I've been harping on about bubbles for the last 3 years with fundamentally extremely overvalued Equity markets...I feel like a stopped clocked permabear with a Dr Doom complex....But I do believe the central banks manipulations to preserve or increase asset value (equities, property, etc) as an answer to keep the already recessed economy from correcting (downwards) is sending monetary theory down a rabbit hole..

We have to remember the very reliable indicators were predicting a 2020 recession before covid was heard of..Basically by the year 2020 the economic cycle had matured to the point of being near to its endgame as all cycle behaviours eventually do. Covid getting in the way gave the economy a high risk of entering a Depression..so the Central Banks had no choice but to use unconventional monetary tools to rescue the economy..and the results has been unpredictably bizarre..

One of the other things pointing to a top is the investment mania occurring ala Sharesies and basically everywhere ... It's as bad as the 80's with everyone talking about it and randoms banging on about it...

I think EVERYONE IS IN except the Reserve Banks now. They are just another arm of govts but very large players.

[Gunner]

One of the other things pointing to a top is the investment mania occurring ala Sharesies and basically everywhere ... It's as bad as the 80's with everyone talking about it and randoms banging on about it...

I think EVERYONE IS IN except the Reserve Banks now. They are just another arm of govts but very large players.

All sharsies is done is to make it easy and convenient to invest in shares. The ease of use is unprecedented and has invited people who would never have invested in shares otherwise. More people investing results in more people talking about it in person and social media.

Whether this is a danger sign in regards to everyone thinking theres easy money on offer and speculating is probably partially true.

[bull....]

there should be another wave of money hit the market when the vix falls below 20 meaningfully as some funds only fully invest when these conditions are met.

markets currently consolidating above resistance which is bullish if they are accepted might lead to a good xmas rally maybe 350 - 400 pts on sp500 takes us towards 4000