Black Monday

[Baa_Baa]

Is today the end of the sucker rally and the start of the decline to retest the lows? Establishing by this that it is officially a Bear 1 by not moving to a higher high in this rally. Oil is down slightly, maybe last week was a dead cat bounce? It too will retest a new bottom? Only time will tell. My pick.

Questions that no one can truly answer, but don't expect NZ to lead the world markets. Currently DOW / SP futures are slightly positive: http://www.barchart.com/futures/marketoverview and keep an eye on Shanghai https://www.google.com/finance?ei=_s...GcaP0gScyZDABA

[banter]

Is today the end of the sucker rally and the start of the decline to retest the lows?

This ten year volatility chart suggests to me the current 'crisis' might be ending.

Big blip in 08, smaller ones in 2010, 2011, and 2015. Back in the non-crisis range now, albeit near the top of it.

If this down move is a real thing - what's it called? Subprime (or GFC), dotcom, and great sharemarket crash are all things you could explain using a crayon to the proverbial ten year old.

What's this one - the Seinfeld crisis?

[Leftfield]

Is today the end of the sucker rally and the start of the decline to retest the lows? Establishing by this that it is officially a Bear 1 by not moving to a higher high in this rally. Oil is down slightly, maybe last week was a dead cat bounce? It too will retest a new bottom? Only time will tell. My pick.

I've been picking 'Black Monday' as over for several weeks now…….time will tell if I've been right.

[skid]

This ten year volatility chart suggests to me the current 'crisis' might be ending.

Big blip in 08, smaller ones in 2010, 2011, and 2015. Back in the non-crisis range now, albeit near the top of it.

If this down move is a real thing - what's it called? Subprime (or GFC), dotcom, and great sharemarket crash are all things you could explain using a crayon to the proverbial ten year old.

What's this one - the Seinfeld crisis?

It will be called ''the emperor has no clothes crises''

[xafalcon]

I prefer "this bull run can't possibly last any longer crisis"

[Aaron]

2. The stock market always precedes a recession, and we are in very slow growth mode (if not negative) in both the economy and corporate earnings. So this theory suggests that the long term trend will be down as the E in P/E contracts and could be facing a Bear market of indeterminate duration. This is the logical theory - but again, as the saying goes "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

Won't it be hard to establish P with negative interest rates? taken to its logical conclusion E will improve once borrowers start getting paid to borrow money and the sky is the limit for P once you have negative interest rates. Central banks look set to ensure the stock market never goes down. Although what happens if people give up saving?

[Snow Leopard]

You never know what 'this' is at the time - it is only when it has definitely ended and you are into the next whatever that you can specify the right name and the best course of action that could have been taken.

Meanwhile you just have to make as much, or lose as little, money as possible

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

Well,Monday on the Dow was'nt much help(tiny volume)
Lots of earnings out tomorrow--If they are disappointing is that good or bad (its hard to know anymore) With the fed and interest rates

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Well,Monday on the Dow was'nt much help(tiny volume)

I have had a closer eye on the Dow over the last few days.
As I understand it, Monday was a holiday in the US - Columbus Day.
The stock markets were however open.
The low volumes and minor price movements are the outcome.

[skid]

Yes,-tonight will be more of an indication (Tues for them)

I was just about to say China was one bright spot for Monday,but they are back on the wrong side of the ledger today(although nothing compared to before)
Chinese Gov head says correction there is now most likely over---Hmmmm (I wonder if they are importing Tui beer )