Black Monday

[ratkin]

It would be a good reason NOT to invest in index ETF's then wouldn't it?
Better to invest in growth Co's

Think there is room for both. ETFs (smartshares etc) are useful for providing geographical diversification. An easy way for overseas exposure.

[bull....]

Apparently NZers going for an overseas holiday's has a negative effect on NZ Retail spending..
..Hmmm there's a few retail stocks on the NZX

maybe it could? but you would expect the big ticket items like pools , spa,s , boats , campervans etc to suffer in time first before if ever other retail items. they were the biggest winners in the no travel period.
most of the nzx retail stocks are not selling such big ticket items so cant really see them being effected by mostly family visits to australia in winter.

anyway back to the action in the US

Jamie Dimon said he’s optimistic the pandemic will end with a U.S. economic rebound that could last at least two years.


“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the U.S. economy will likely boom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

[Bjauck]

The IMF suggests tax reform to pay for Covid as some people and companies have prospered:

“Governments could consider higher taxes on property, capital gains and inheritance"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/07/imf-wealth-tax-cost-covid-pandemic-rich-poor

NZ has already boosted income tax for personal higher incomes and indebted property investors. What next?

Janet Yellen, US treasury Sec., has also called for a global minimum corporate tax.

[bull....]

seems these australian analysts think along my lines that the travel bubble will have no real economic benefit to aus or nz.

largely they say

aus people only come to ski
nz people will only travel to see family/friends
no ones comfortable really to travel while there big covid risks
airlines will jack prices up to repair there balance sheets

http://New Zealand travel bubble won... warn analysts

[Bjauck]

seems these australian analysts think along my lines that the travel bubble will have no real economic benefit to aus or nz.

largely they say

aus people only come to ski
nz people will only travel to see family/friends
no ones comfortable really to travel while there big covid risks
airlines will jack prices up to repair there balance sheets

http://New Zealand travel bubble won... warn analysts

Also in Winter the bubble will surely favour Australia - NZ older snowbirds flying to Queensland to stay at flats and timeshares will not be compensated by Aussie skiers...

[winner69]

Doing the rounds -

working class nz: i can’t afford to holiday in australia anyway

middle class nz: i can’t afford to get stuck in australia if we get locked down, so that’s a no from me

wealthy nz: holiday in australia? do i look like a f##*en peasant??

[Habits]

Also in Winter the bubble will surely favour Australia - NZ older snowbirds flying to Queensland to stay at flats and timeshares will not be compensated by Aussie skiers...

Very good for QT ... and holders of THL. I dont hold any thl now but the small company stx I follow are mostly all looking up and ready for a move higher soonish. Tonights report says that investor confidence has returned

[Bobdn]

Let's enjoy this ride. Every morning we wake up richer (on paper). Someday this bull market's gonna end...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/jere...boom-ends.html

[LaserEyeKiwi]

seems these australian analysts think along my lines that the travel bubble will have no real economic benefit to aus or nz.

largely they say

aus people only come to ski
nz people will only travel to see family/friends
no ones comfortable really to travel while there big covid risks
airlines will jack prices up to repair there balance sheets

http://New Zealand travel bubble won... warn analysts

- Australia receives 1.3 million Kiwi tourists each year.
- New Zealand receives 1.5 million Australian tourists each year.

So on the face of it, would look like a small gain for NZ.

However one needs to do the math on the population sizes to see how it could be a much bigger gain for New Zealand:

- 1.3 million kiwis going to australia each year is equivalent to 29% of our population, and with ~3 million overseas trips each year, Australia accounts for about 44% of kiwi international trips

- 1.5 million Australians coming to NZ is equivalent to only 6% of their population, and with ~11 million overseas trips taken by Aussies, NZ accounts for only 14% of Aussie international trips.

So looking at that above data, then one would conclude that with New Zealand as the only quarantine-free international holiday destination for Australians, then New Zealand is poised to grab a far larger piece of the Australians itching to travel than the traditional 14% slice (whereas kiwis travelling to Australia was already almost half of our normal tourist trips anyway)

(These stats also highlight that many Australians highly likely haven't visited New Zealand this century)

[bull....]

- Australia receives 1.3 million Kiwi tourists each year.
- New Zealand receives 1.5 million Australian tourists each year.

So on the face of it, would look like a small gain for NZ.

However one needs to do the math on the population sizes to see how it could be a much bigger gain for New Zealand:

- 1.3 million kiwis going to australia each year is equivalent to 29% of our population, and with ~3 million overseas trips each year, Australia accounts for about 44% of kiwi international trips

- 1.5 million Australians coming to NZ is equivalent to only 6% of their population, and with ~11 million overseas trips taken by Aussies, NZ accounts for only 14% of Aussie international trips.

So looking at that above data, then one would conclude that with New Zealand as the only quarantine-free international holiday destination for Australians, then New Zealand is poised to grab a far larger piece of the Australians itching to travel than the traditional 14% slice (whereas kiwis travelling to Australia was already almost half of our normal tourist trips anyway)

(These stats also highlight that many Australians highly likely haven't visited New Zealand this century)

yes be interesting how it plays out.

im still thinking the fear of travelling for most people with covid still around , also trouble getting insurance and the risk your holiday might end up costing many thousands more if your unlucky to get caught in a lockdown will still put many people off.