Black Monday

[skid]

so far ..so good Coutts..or not so bad.
AIR has no doubt helped immensely,which came about from a change in your portfolio so you have'nt really been doing nothing(even if it was a bit before Black Monday.)
Interest rates (fed) seems to have provided a get out of jail free card for now--Lets see how this plays out (200K to go if the markets stay rosy)

Dont know how I sleep at night with all those lost profits

[Tomtom]

Low Interest rates---quote of the day by Danial Kitson--''The future is not the mystery many think.It is instead the ''slowly accruing consequences of the present''

I like that.

My own view has been that central banks have been very accommodating with ZIRP which has allowed credit growth without corresponding growth in areas of productivity. However getting out of the trap created by ZIRP when everyone is in up to their eye balls and slightly compounded by demographic and social trends will prove challenging. The most obvious way out is perhaps also the most difficult, to raise rates and allow economies to fall into recession with the hope that perhaps that internal reorganisation will drive improvements in productivity and allow some clearing/write-off processes to take place. This seems rather unpalatable however so it seems much more likely that low rates and/or ZIRP will become a more permanent fixture.

[Kaspar]

I think NZ investors got a bit unlucky as the NZ50 did not give much of a warning prior to August - whereas the ASX fell over in June giving plenty of time to get out. The ASX has a much stronger bear trend than the NZX. As I've pointed out before, all my comments on charts/trends/bear markets etc are in reference to the ASX not the NZX as I dont invest in NZ - so don't extract my market commentary on the ASX and apply it to the NZX. The Australian economy is in far deeper excrement than the NZ one.

Hi KW, just out of interest...how come you don't invest in the NZ market?

[JBmurc]

I doubt if many people's portfolios are worth more now than they were at the beginning of June.....

My portfolio is higher now than anytime in the last 2yrs ..... But then I've been focused on the ASX micro-jnr Resource sectors

[Jantar]

......
Most people on here are crowing that their portfolio is worth more now than in August - but that is not the valid time comparison. The time to have sold was in June (as I did), and I doubt if many people's portfolios are worth more now than they were at the beginning of June......

Fair comment. My portfolio did reach a high point on 31st May. It is now worth more than it was then. Only 2 stocks are still in negative territory. HNZ by almost exactly the brokerage fees, and PGW that is well down and showing signs of recovering. So overall I would be happy to say that It has been no more than a market correction as a result of bad overseas news. But Solid New Zealand companies are continuing to perform well, so are still in demand.

[Leftfield]

The last few months have shown that NZX is a different animal to (say) ASX or DOW. Sure we are influenced by what happens in China etc., however the reality is that many of our companies are now much more well diversified than in the past, with strong international links and markets. Add to that the depth of local investing via the Super Fund, Kiwi Saver etc, add in some of the recent Free Trade agreements and our stock exchange is proving to be a bit more resilient than it has been.

So Black Monday….. maybe it was, and maybe the latest rise is a simply dead cat bounce….. but just maybe, the fundamentals of good NZ stocks are sufficient for them to stand proud. Time will tell.

[Arbroath]

Fair comment. My portfolio did reach a high point on 31st May. It is now worth more than it was then. Only 2 stocks are still in negative territory. HNZ by almost exactly the brokerage fees, and PGW that is well down and showing signs of recovering. So overall I would be happy to say that It has been no more than a market correction as a result of bad overseas news. But Solid New Zealand companies are continuing to perform well, so are still in demand.

I agree Jantar. My portfolio is up 7% the last 3 months against a flat index performance. 9 stocks 7 of which are in the Top50. Pretty happy with conservatively geared high yielding NZ companies. Also own HNZ. Very happy with Trademe performance as they demonstrate the underlying strength of their business.

[skid]

The last few months have shown that NZX is a different animal to (say) ASX or DOW. Sure we are influenced by what happens in China etc., however the reality is that many of our companies are now much more well diversified than in the past, with strong international links and markets. Add to that the depth of local investing via the Super Fund, Kiwi Saver etc, add in some of the recent Free Trade agreements and our stock exchange is proving to be a bit more resilient than it has been.

So Black Monday….. maybe it was, and maybe the latest rise is a simply dead cat bounce….. but just maybe, the fundamentals of good NZ stocks are sufficient for them to stand proud. Time will tell.

I think you are right up to a point.NZX has fared pretty well as many have testified,but there is no question that markets influence each other (Globalization) and tiny NZ ,no matter how well placed locally would not escape--There has been a lag between NZ and the other markets (pretty much) and things have certainly improved before things ''caught up'' with little ole NZ,but I think that it is unrealistic to think NZ would sail through a storm on its own--they wouldnt survive a dead cat bounce scenario without blood--good to have a plan for when it happens as someday,month,or year,it surly will.
Its a nuisance to not only have to research your own companies of choice but at the same time keep an eye on the outside scenario ,but I believe it is a necessary tool for survival.

[skid]

In the number of shares I have glanced at (charts)Ive noticed that they have all jumped since the start of October,after having dropped before(so maybe NZ is not so insulated from the world markets after all?)

[Kaspar]

Because I've spent most of the last 15 years in Australia and have lost touch with the NZ market
Because I'm on a 4 year tax holiday for all foreign derived income
Because it takes a lot of work to follow a market and look for opportunities within it, and there are simply not enough opportunities in NZ for me to bother. There are not all that many in Australia even, which is why I need to get off my ass and get into the US market.

Sweet. Do you think you will invest in NZ at some point though? Juicy dividends with imputation credits might be tempting at a later stage in life