Black Monday

[kiora]

Black Wednesday methinks :>((

That is highly likely to happen. The markets seem to be focusing on the negatives and run out of puff.

[FTG]

Black Wednesday methinks :>((

Wed US time? I hope not Hoop, would be good to have a bit more time to organise positions accordingly.

In saying that, I'll stick my neck way out here and say that IMHO there is a 80% chance that we have now seen the high in the S & P 500 for the year. ATH of 4545.85 printed on 2/9/21. What is quite compelling for me from a TA perspective is the LARGE expanding triangle (over 2 years in size) which emanated in Jan 2018. This triangle was a near perfect example of how an expanding triangle should behave. Being so broad (in value & time) it very much demonstrated the range of conflicting market "emotions" one should see across its different legs. Despair, Europhia, Fear, Greed, Confidence & Confusion.

This triangle projected a breakout terminal target of 4595. Assuming that the ATH high above was THE high for this Bull run cycle , then a miss by just 1% would be "poetry in motion" IMO.

What happens next some may ask? There is a risk of me getting ahead of myself and potentially being viewed as alarmist. However I have genuine intent to encourage some here to at least consider to "expect the unexpected", and be in a strong position rather than a weak & over-exposed one.

A quick recap. Triangle formations are a consolidation move in an overall trend. In this case a multi-year bull trend. So the huge thrust to the upside (in this case doubling the S & P from March 2020) was a continuation of the trend that preceded the triangle, and hence despite it being quite awe inspiring, was actually mainly to be expected. Yes i get it, always easier to say with the benefit of some hindsight!

However, if I'm correct and the thrust has ended, then the longer-term trend has terminated. And with the corrective move prior to the thrust (everything bubble?) being a very large & dynamic expanding triangle this signals potential BIG danger immediately ahead. The dramatic part of my call is I would be suggesting an eventual target of circa 2800 on the S & P. This would mean an impending 35% correction from the ATH. The gravitational forces from the middle zone of the preceding Expanding Triangle are in this case VERY strong, and hence increase the probability of this taking a relatively short period of time (less than 4 months in duration in this case). The next downwards move (from whenever it is finally confirmed to have commenced) has quite a chance of being swift, awe-inspiring and quite damaging to the Bulls.

It may be time to fasten the seat belts for a wild ride team!

IF I'm correct, then for those of us you can get in the right position, some amazing opportunities may actually be on offer (short side, then eventually on the buy side).

[BlackPeter]

Black Wednesday methinks :>((

Republicans trying to shut down government.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/u...ebt-limit.html

NYTsnippet.JPG

This probably does not help market sentiment.

Just the usual political posturing and the typical irresponsible behaviour of the Republican party putting damage to the government over benefit to their people ... I never can understand that anybody can be dumb enough to support these idiots, but hey - they must be Americans, aren't they?

[Hoop]

Republicans trying to shut down government.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/u...ebt-limit.html

NYTsnippet.JPG

This probably does not help market sentiment.

Just the usual political posturing and the typical irresponsible behaviour of the Republican party putting damage to the government over benefit to their people ... I never can understand that anybody can be dumb enough to support these idiots, but hey - they must be Americans, aren't they?

Yep..happens every year..one of the few chances the opposition gets to have any sort of control to negotiate something they want....kinda like blackmail..eh..
I hear rumours that the large US fund managers are holding back a tad in their buying..probably the bull market is the victim of its own success and the fund companies could be smelling the current "time for a correctional breather" sentiment..who knows...Usually a market correction is a slow down of available money..so there is a self fulfilling prophesy element to all this...plus...the market has been ignoring its own fact it is and has been for a while now significantly overvalued...that tends to give nervous investors the jitters every time the market pauses.

Wed US time? I hope not Hoop, would be good to have a bit more time to organise positions accordingly.....

.

I actually meant today will be a bad day on the NZX..Originally thought about -1.5% not the current -0.4%..might still happen when the Aussie market opens..On the charts the rapid price rising stocks look to be bending over FBU MFT while some others have produced trading range channels SPK FPH with potential for bearish double top patterns to form..This may keep the NZX "soft" for the short term

[Hoop]

Plus...September 30th is not far away..This is the time fund managers make their reports look good..eh

[Panda-NZ-]

Just the usual political posturing and the typical irresponsible behaviour of the Republican party putting damage to the government over benefit to their people ... I never can understand that anybody can be dumb enough to support these idiots, but hey - they must be Americans, aren't they?

They take instructions from the russian govt.

Notice how they rarely criticise putin these days.

[bull....]

considering sept is traditionally the worst mth seasonally for markets in history it is performing according to plan

[Rawz]

They take instructions from the russian govt.

Notice how they rarely criticise putin these days.

That's because China is the new Russia

[Panda-NZ-]

Russia doesn't have an economy.

China would be more affected by a worldwide depression caused by US debt default.

[dobby41]

That's because China is the new Russia

But with a lot more money than Russia had.
Russia always seemed to have potential that was never realised.