Black Monday

[ronaldson]

Market very soft at the moment. It seems more negatives can be found than positives. Hard to be confident that can be turned around, although quite a few half/full year results to be released over the rest of this month - likely to be a mixed bag thou, witness Plexure today.

Some certainty around Auckland's circumstances now with the PM's announcements and the operationality of the Vaccine Certificates, albeit there are temporary logon issues ( I got mine no problem - off to get the paper version laminated later this afternoon ). Whether all this will relieve the current mood is hard to say, but at least many children are back at school even if part time/in bubbles.

One thought out of left field is that Auckland ratepayers can't be more than a fortnight away from receiving their new Rating Valuations. While these will already be out of date ( notionally as at 1 July ) there is nothing like a piece of paper with your name on it and a seven digit number after to help folk at least feel wealthier! A nice early Christmas present for the lucky ones!

[bull....]

yep nz very unloved market 8% down ytd , 3rd worst in the world this yr only beaten by china and brazil.
pretty close at the bottom so still time to take the wooden spoon. i cant see next yr being much better but hey who knows NZ might suddenly print another 50 billion lol

[Panda-NZ-]

Interest rates. Since the NZ economy is doing well shares are less attractive.

[allfromacell]

NZ isn't the only country facing strong inflation numbers but we're one of the only central banks with the courage to actually raise interest rates and rip the band off so to speak.

The rest of the world will be forced to follow in due time and those equity markets too will face the same challenges.

I wouldn't want to move funds out of the NZX to chase better returns overseas just to see the NZX outperform in 2022-2023 as the rest of the world faces the music. Inflation is not just transitionaty and printing money isn't a free lunch, NZ is just experiencing those realities first.

[couta1]

NZ isn't the only country facing strong inflation numbers but we're one of the only central banks with the courage to actually raise interest rates and rip the band off so to speak.

The rest of the world will be forced to follow in due time and those equity markets too will face the same challenges.

I wouldn't want to move funds out of the NZX to chase better returns overseas just to see the NZX outperform in 2022-2023 as the rest of the world faces the music. Inflation is not just transitionaty and printing money isn't a free lunch, NZ is just experiencing those realities first.

Yep could be a case of jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

[value_investor]

Agreed, interesting to see how aggressive interest rate rises are or if they will gradually increase overtime. The aggressive bond buying has tapered. The next interest rate decision is in a weeks time, and we could easily see a 50 point hike at this stage. Swap rates are already pricing in a few hikes, banks have already passed on mortgage rate increases, offset by a smaller increase in term deposits.

The wheels are turning in the other direction in the nzx, looks as though valuations are coming back down without the flood of cheap money in the local markets and I'm sure a lot of investors are cashing out sizeable returns made in the past few years. If you have a long time horizon in my opinion, there will be opportunities to buy and hold and make some sizeable long term returns. However, if you're buying right now in the hopes of selling in the next 12 months at a profit, it might not be the best strategy at this point.

[bull....]

Agreed, interesting to see how aggressive interest rate rises are or if they will gradually increase overtime. The aggressive bond buying has tapered. The next interest rate decision is in a weeks time, and we could easily see a 50 point hike at this stage. Swap rates are already pricing in a few hikes, banks have already passed on mortgage rate increases, offset by a smaller increase in term deposits.

The wheels are turning in the other direction in the nzx, looks as though valuations are coming back down without the flood of cheap money in the local markets and I'm sure a lot of investors are cashing out sizeable returns made in the past few years. If you have a long time horizon in my opinion, there will be opportunities to buy and hold and make some sizeable long term returns. However, if you're buying right now in the hopes of selling in the next 12 months at a profit, it might not be the best strategy at this point.

a 50 pt hike in ocr will crush the bond proxy nzx

[bull....]

avoid these sectors like a barge pole in a rising rate environment

property stocks
retirement stocks
gentailers

most are already declining stock prices last mth or so

[Rawz]

Thought all the rich (globally) were buying property right now as a hedge against inflation.

Especially farmland. Lots and lots of farmland being bought buy the billionaires these days

[bull....]

Thought all the rich (globally) were buying property right now as a hedge against inflation.

Especially farmland. Lots and lots of farmland being bought buy the billionaires these days

big difference between owning hard assets and owning paper stocks