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14-02-2019, 12:32 PM
#141
Originally Posted by dodgy
Hi,
I am not too sure about the advertising inference - look at the Remington man Victor Kiam and the fortune that company made.
Regards
-dodgy
...and Michael Hill was not exactly a male model and he managed to promote his company successfully
Yeh I have some faith in AFT as a long term kind of risky investment and have a small holding. They are building up licensing in many countries which takes time and they have cheap production methods. Agreed, it is not doing too well at present with price or liquidity but as I said its a long term view.
Looking at the chart it looks like a 18 month long descending wedge but Bulkowski tells me they should only be a few months long at most so maybe its just a boring old downtrend.
Attachment 10317
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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14-02-2019, 03:18 PM
#142
yeah I'm maybe being a tab unkind with the advertising reference.....
My rationale comes from years of experience in advertising in which I've seen many instances of good campaigns for a product being ruined by a CEO's ego who wants to see their face made famous. Easy money for an ad agency to cave to such pressure, but in the end it seldom builds a good brand.
You say M. Hill campaign worked for them. Yes maybe, but only for a while. Once the CEO steps down, the personality is lost. And where is Remington these days?
GLH.
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14-02-2019, 04:00 PM
#143
Michael Hill’s face on TV didn’t sell many shoes
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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14-02-2019, 05:29 PM
#144
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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14-02-2019, 07:32 PM
#145
Member
Originally Posted by Left field
yeah I'm maybe being a tab unkind with the advertising reference.....
My rationale comes from years of experience in advertising in which I've seen many instances of good campaigns for a product being ruined by a CEO's ego who wants to see their face made famous. Easy money for an ad agency to cave to such pressure, but in the end it seldom builds a good brand.
You say M. Hill campaign worked for them. Yes maybe, but only for a while. Once the CEO steps down, the personality is lost. And where is Remington these days?
GLH.
I think Victor died. No1 brand for womens shavers and a major personal grooming worldwide company.
Regards
-dodgy
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14-02-2019, 11:19 PM
#146
Originally Posted by Beagle
wrong thread Beagle ?
nowt to do with AFT that I can see.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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15-02-2019, 02:20 PM
#147
AFT is certainly boring from a share market point of view (not so much in terms of what they are actually doing/developing), they don't really announce much so hard to get all excited about a pending bigly game changing announcement.
Speaking of chemist warehouse, it is semi to do with AFT in the way they are doing wonders for AFT (a key driver in aussie sales) - on the front page of every 6 or 8 ish page pamflet I have received in the mail (about 3 of them in the past month I think), maxigesic has been right in the middle, front and centre. AFT's crystaderm is also usually somewhere in there as well I think.
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10-04-2019, 02:50 PM
#148
They gonna need to say something, ideally positive, as the share price is slipping away... hard to believe a year ago the shares were trading at $2.40... fundamentally, nothing has changed (has it?)... ah well, back to profit pretty soon, dividends hopefully under 2 years away as well.
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10-04-2019, 03:16 PM
#149
They are filing Maxigesic Rapid with the FDA in USA , sounds promising. But yeh pharmaceutical stuff has a bit of lag ....
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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10-04-2019, 09:34 PM
#150
I have been looking around for prospects on the NZ market and so decided to check out AFT. AFT seems to be a half way house between a neutriceutical like Blackmore and Promisia and a drug company like Pfizer. I had a quick look at their product list and mostly (solely?) they are formulations to deliver treatments that are already well established and not patented. This is different from generics where the generic manufacturer simply replicates the previously patented formula. From what I can see, AFT is as much a marketing company as it is a pharmaceutical company - "buy our product rather than anyone else's because ...."
Now, I realise that AFT's SP has been all downhill since it floated towards the end of 2016 amidst a degree of fanfare. This has been accompanied by continuing annual losses. Nevertheless, the EPS has been steadily improving which is a good sign. Then I looked at their debt situation. The Debt to Equity ratio at the end of March 2018 was 325.3% according to Morningstar. Ouch and more ouch. Not only that, but the ratio had increased from 38.2% at the end of March 2017 (a reasonable ratio). Without the latest annual results (probably released towards the end of May), I cannot determine what the current debt ratio is, and of course the current EPS figure will be helpful.
Now a company can increase debt in order to fund development and expansion and so I have to reserve judgement until we have the latest figures but that is such an extreme debt ratio, that it raise questions as to the viability of the company.
As a decent Kiwi, I want to support NZ business and especially those that export or sell their products overseas and I have a number of such in my portfolio. However, I cannot afford to throw money away and need some kind of return. AFT needs to prove itself a lot more to me at this stage I am afraid.
Last edited by SilverBack; 10-04-2019 at 09:36 PM.
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