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  1. #151
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    They gonna need to say something, ideally positive, as the share price is slipping away... hard to believe a year ago the shares were trading at $2.40... fundamentally, nothing has changed (has it?)... ah well, back to profit pretty soon, dividends hopefully under 2 years away as well.
    Yep t_j they did a PEB and came out with a good story ....did you ask them to?

    Put a rocket under the share price?

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...323/298380.pdf
    Last edited by winner69; 12-04-2019 at 12:49 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Yep t_j they did a PEB and came out with a good story ....did you ask them to?

    Put a rocket under the share price?

    https://quoteapi.com/resources/da986...LWTHpoJFSXbFZM
    link doesnt work for me W69

    AFT are always coming up with new stories (news) about how they are expanding their licensing geographically.

    share price not responding yet, only one lonely lowball buyer currently !
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    link doesnt work for me W69

    AFT are always coming up with new stories (news) about how they are expanding their licensing geographically.

    share price not responding yet, only one lonely lowball buyer currently !
    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...323/298380.pdf
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #154
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    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?4303-winner69: "Put a rocket under the share price?"

    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?5811-peat: "share price not responding yet, only one lonely lowball buyer currently !"

    And you are surprised? Surely not.

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256588.pdf

    Interesting presentation, but also brief and to the point.

    "expected total income for FY2017 [in the upper end of the range], up from $65.8m in FY2016" so lets say $70.5m.

    Total Income analysis
    1st half 15 was $24.2m ($24.2m of operating revenue, no Licensing Income and not sure on grants)
    1st half 16 was $30.9m ($29.5m of operating revenue +21.9% on 1st half 15, 1m Licensing Income, $0.4m Research and development grant)
    1st half 17 was [a weak] $30.8m ($29.8m of operating revenue + 0.7% $0.7m Licensing Income, $0.3m Research and development grant)

    Therefore:
    2nd half 15 was $33.3m ($32m of operating revenue, $0.3m Licensing Income, $1m Research and development grant)
    2nd half 16 was $35.4m ($34.5m of operating revenue + 7.8% on 2nd half 15, $0.8m Licencing Income $0.1m Research and development grant)
    2nd half 17 expected $39.7m (expect 96% of total income to be operating revenue: ie $38.1m + 10.4% on 2nd half 16)

    It would appear growth is skewed towards the 2nd half, especially this year (with 2nd half operating revenue likely to be 23.7% higher than a bad first half)

    I estimate 1st half 18 operating revenue will be only a bit less than the same as 2nd half 17, say 1st half revenue of 36m
    2nd half 18, conservatively speaking, I estimate to be 25% higher than the first, meaning $45m
    (1st to 2nd in 2015: 32.2%, 1st to 2nd in 2016: 16.9%, 1st to 2nd in 2017:27.9% [?] - average over 3 year period: 25.7%)
    This reflecting increasing [expected] sales growth as development of products begins to 'flow through to sales'.

    Total Operating Revenues:
    48.9m 2014
    56.2m 2015 (+13.0%)
    64.0m 2016 (+13.9%
    67.9m 2017 (+6.1%)
    81m 2018 (+19.3%)

    Maybe in 2019 growth will accelerate back to the good old days, when the 10 year CAGR (to 2015) was 21% (if not done in 2018!)... Total Income would be surely be over $100m including licensing income and grants, and turn a profit this [2019] year? (like the good old profitable days)

    Will have to keep an eye on that cash burn... don't want another WYN (or OHE)

    Edison have a revenue estimate of 99.1m operating revenue and a profit of 0.3m for 2018 so maybe I am a bit to cautious with my 81m estimate... then again they also have a price target that is more than double the current market price ($4.76)... winner69 you'd think the market would meet in the middle maybe somewhere between current market price ($2.30) and Edison's target ($4.76)... if that was the case, we'd be above $3.50... got to see the jump in growth first I suppose.
    This was posted by me nearly exactly 2 years ago... wow my FY17 and FY18 forecast weren't bad (ended up being $69.2m in FY17 and 80.1m in FY18 operating revenues)

    What I certainly didn't forecast was AFT share price dropping to its lowest point ever, despite my forecast (if true) showing a doubling in gross profits in just 4 years... someone was clearly very keen to get out, although the reason is not entirely clear why (it wasn't an insider selling as this would have been disclosed already).
    Speaking of insiders, wow the board of AFT has been rock solid, nobody coming and going, just solid and steady management.

    Anyhow, now to FY19: What I was also a bit off on was my FY19 forecast... $100m operating income likely a bit optimistic... I'll be expecting this in FY20 for sure (+ a significant portion of other income it has been indicated, which maybe several million additional income for FY20)

    What I'd like to see in a months time when FY19 is announced:
    - FY19 Operating Revenue of $88m, total Income around the $90m mark.
    - Gross profit of $42m (wow that would be double what it was just 4 years ago - can't fault a company for doubling profitability every 4 years)
    - Underlying operating profit of a few million
    - Operating cash flow positive
    - Bonus: first NPAT (not ever, AFT has been profitable for years and years) but a first NPAT as a listed company

  6. #156
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    trader_jackson


    Speaking of insiders, wow the board of AFT has been rock solid, nobody coming and going, just solid and steady management.
    Maybe that’s the big problem

    Just looked at the nice portraits of them on their website ...OMG
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maybe that’s the big problem

    Just looked at the nice portraits of them on their website ...OMG
    I would be very concerned if it was a rotating door of people.
    They are delivering, slightly slower than I'd like, but delivering none the less.... but clearly the market getting a bit impatient at lack of bigly announcements... solid and steady progress, like doubling of gross profit every 4 years, is clearly not enough to entice some to stick around.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 20-04-2019 at 03:07 PM.

  8. #158
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    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ferendum-nears

    Wow they really pumping it now - media team must be reading share trader + seeing share price slump and wanting to put out a good story - and they delivered I reckon...

    AFT soon gonna be like those pot companies on the ASX, have a small announcement on something related to cannabis, and then triple in price in a few days as a result of people lapping up 'the story'?

    "It expected to return to profit in May when it released its 2019 annual result, Atkinson said." Sounds like NPAT for FY19 a done deal... we'll see in just a months time... that'll be a nice bonus as far as I'm concerned, before the bigly NPAT comes in FY20 and beyond.

    Seems like AFT are "well positioned", profitability wise, and growth opportunity wise (and not just in new products, but new countries... "Over time he expected international sales from outside Australasia to make up about half of total revenue.")
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 21-04-2019 at 02:09 PM.

  9. #159
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Yep tj ...that news of medical marijuana is awesome

    I’ll be buying tomorrow ...can’t live se I reckon
    Last edited by winner69; 23-04-2019 at 12:37 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #160
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    Can anyone who support AFT justify equity:debt of $2,960,000:$56,446,000? I believe there must be something if still support AFT even when they are valued at $160m with so much debts on their books.
    Last edited by pg0220; 23-04-2019 at 08:07 AM.

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