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24-04-2019, 02:52 PM
#191
It took 3 weeks to go from $2 to $1.70 (and about 55k shares in volume), and in less than 2 business days (and about 23k shares in volume - so far), AFT straight back to $2... Amazing what a non price sensitive article restating last years AGM / half year comments can do.
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24-04-2019, 09:56 PM
#192
Originally Posted by winner69
FROM ARG THREAD For most here risk is a rather subjective thing anyway
Doubt if any do a Sharpe Ratio for their portfolio - let alone do an Efficient Frontier exercise is see whats the best risk adjusted return is
Indeed risk is subjective and I could never believe that a Sharpe ratio helped.
AFT , for me is a very risky investment. A small new company not currently profitable. Liquidity very low. However I've done a bit of a Percy on it and everywhere I go to a chemist (surprisingly frequently these days) I enquire casually as to Maxigesic and I get pretty good feedback on it. And the company is really planning for great things - some of their markets are massive! And my partner swears by them as effective.
So I think , with a patient outlook , they could justify that higher level of equity risk (and probably a high beta), and in good time provide a high level of return.
Or not.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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29-04-2019, 11:51 AM
#193
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
It took 3 weeks to go from $2 to $1.70 (and about 55k shares in volume), and in less than 2 business days (and about 23k shares in volume - so far), AFT straight back to $2... Amazing what a non price sensitive article restating last years AGM / half year comments can do.
In 4 business days, share price has gone from $1.70 to $2.10... nice to see a over 20% gain in a week or so, wonder what the seller at $1.70 is thinking, turns out there was the volume/interest at a much higher price all along, just needed a sunday paper article to re mention what had previously (months ago) been mentioned.
Hopefully another 20%+ gain, but instead of 4 business days, probably have to wait 4 weeks this time (ie wait till post results announcement on 22 May)
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30-04-2019, 03:27 PM
#194
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
In 4 business days, share price has gone from $1.70 to $2.10... nice to see a over 20% gain in a week or so, wonder what the seller at $1.70 is thinking, turns out there was the volume/interest at a much higher price all along, just needed a sunday paper article to re mention what had previously (months ago) been mentioned.
Hopefully another 20%+ gain, but instead of 4 business days, probably have to wait 4 weeks this time (ie wait till post results announcement on 22 May)
Things marching closer to $2.20, with a fresh bid in at $2.11... volumes across the past 2 weeks on average about 3x higher than usual as well, but I reckon buyer interest I reckon is about 10x higher than usual.
The countdown to annual results is on.
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01-05-2019, 10:33 AM
#195
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Things marching closer to $2.20, with a fresh bid in at $2.11... volumes across the past 2 weeks on average about 3x higher than usual as well, but I reckon buyer interest I reckon is about 10x higher than usual.
The countdown to annual results is on.
They say the hope dies last ...
Still below the MA200, and still quite low volumes (well, sort of average for this illiquid stock).
But sure - they might present this year a (surprising) turnaround - and the rising SP would just point to a leaky ship. Not good.
However - this is not what the publicly available information says. I think what we see at the moment is just a case of people reading the (somewhat misleading) stuff.co.nz article (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ferendum-nears ) without digesting the clarification released afterwards by the company.
"Buy the rumour" potentially followed after announcement by a "sell the facts".
I see this clarification (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333585) as telling - they clearly imply they are continuing to lose money, it is just their earnings before interest and depreciation which they expect to be positive.
Just hope that every buyer read (and understood) this clarification before buying, otherwise announcement day might turn into a bloodbath.
Who knows? Without insider knowledge all speculation.
Last edited by BlackPeter; 01-05-2019 at 10:39 AM.
Reason: Oops - the referred to article appeared on stuff, not in the herald. My apologies for the mix up
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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02-05-2019, 12:25 PM
#196
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Things marching closer to $2.20, with a fresh bid in at $2.11... volumes across the past 2 weeks on average about 3x higher than usual as well, but I reckon buyer interest I reckon is about 10x higher than usual.
The countdown to annual results is on.
Monday we had a fresh bid in at $2.11, thought we'd get to $2.20 by weeks end, but I was wrong... now $2.20 with a day and a half to go... now there are bids up to $2.25 with nearly 30k shares with buy orders of $2.15 or higher, and just 1 seller left (at $2.30)... how things can change in a few days... whispers of a good result leaking out?
I have to say, even I'm surprised at the swift rebound - sending AFT up 30% in less than 3 weeks - and volumes (for a stock that is basically 88% locked up) have been much higher than usual over the past 2 ish weeks as well... a leak of a better than expected result perhaps?
Last edited by trader_jackson; 02-05-2019 at 12:27 PM.
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02-05-2019, 12:53 PM
#197
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
................
I have to say, even I'm surprised at the swift rebound - sending AFT up 30% in less than 3 weeks - and volumes (for a stock that is basically 88% locked up) have been much higher than usual over the past 2 ish weeks as well... a leak of a better than expected result perhaps?
Perhaps but with a stock with that much locked up, why bother?
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06-05-2019, 11:39 AM
#198
$1.70 to $2.40 in two weeks is a cool jump!... No sellers right now.
I am looking forward to the result and i hope the company will turn green this time.
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06-05-2019, 12:10 PM
#199
Originally Posted by carrom74
$1.70 to $2.40 in two weeks is a cool jump!... No sellers right now.
I am looking forward to the result and i hope the company will turn green this time.
There is a seller now - 1000 shares at $3.50... Quite crazy that nobody else seems fussed that this stock has increased over 40% in less than 3 weeks, in fact it is at the highest point since July last year
Then again, was weird why it ever went down in the first place
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06-05-2019, 12:37 PM
#200
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
There is a seller now - 1000 shares at $3.50... Quite crazy that nobody else seems fussed that this stock has increased over 40% in less than 3 weeks, in fact it is at the highest point since July last year
Then again, was weird why it ever went down in the first place
Jeez - you are trying hard ...
I guess first lets see whether they manage to get after 5 years of losses their operation back into the black (I recon not this year, but hopefully next), and whether they manage to at least sustain their (for a growth company) quite meagre revenue CAGR of 15 or so.
If they manage to deliver a profit next year than we can start wondering whether they might be a worthwhile investment and at what price.
NZ health and pharma industry not really a glowing success story at the moment ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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