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  1. #111
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    I was unaware that their flagship product, Maxigesic is also now aviailable in an intravenous form, significant as it could be utilsed in hospital as part of routine, if appropriate, pain managaemt. Thsi compnay will continue its development, only concern that it becomes a takeover target
    Last edited by Sgt Pepper; 19-02-2018 at 03:30 PM.

  2. #112
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Pepper View Post
    I was unaware that their flagship product, Maxigesic is also now aviailable in an intravenous form, significant as it could be utilsed in hospital as part of routine, if appropriate, pain managaemt. Thsi compnay will continue its development, only concern that it becomes a takeover target
    Look at the share register, highly unlikely.

  3. #113
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    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315095

    Yet more robust news, ticking (or selling should I say) more and more boxes by the day.
    Share price will still defy the odds and therefore probably go down further.

  4. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315095

    Yet more robust news, ticking (or selling should I say) more and more boxes by the day.
    Share price will still defy the odds and therefore probably go down further.
    You the cynic t_j ...good timing this announcement eh in light of where the share price is

    Probably wouldn't have said anything if the share price was $3 or more ....they would have waited ofr more than 1 weeks data to confirm this good news ...wouldn't they?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #115
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315095

    Yet more robust news, ticking (or selling should I say) more and more boxes by the day.
    Share price will still defy the odds and therefore probably go down further.
    Oh dear ... I didn't realize that their highly tooted innovative painkiller Maxigesic is nothing but a combination of Ibuprofen and Paracetamol ... Silly me thought that they actually did develop some pain medication ;

    The codeine-free painkiller Maxigesic is now the largest selling Paracetamol-Ibuprofen combination painkiller in Australian pharmacies.
    Nothing new about that - doctors recommend (and prescribe) this combination of paracetamol and Ibuprofen already for a long time in case of persistent pain. No need for Maxigesic something.

    Where is AFT's moat?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 05-03-2018 at 02:06 PM.
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  6. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Where is AFT's moat?
    They get the outsourced manufacturer to put both ingredients into one pill. Clever aye. No one else will be able to do that!

    They do have a patent so there is some form of moat:

    A patent was subsequently grated for Maxigesic in New Zealand, and via the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) system, a large number of additional countries also.
    https://www.aftpharm.com/innovation/...-study-page-2/

  7. #117
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    Well been pretty boarding lately with AFT, but next week Wednesday we'll see full year results, which should show some nice growth.
    What is for sure is that we probably can't get too excited as AFT are still building up to something much bigger, better and more valuable than its current state... we may even see a profit this FY - which would be an added bonus because I'm happy if it has to wait another year.
    The founder holds an overwhelming majority of shares and seems to have no intention on 'letting go' until he has done alot more bigly things... short term boredom, long term excitement some say
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 19-05-2018 at 08:14 PM.

  8. #118
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    Nobody praising the annual results? Let me guess, they must have been pretty disappointing. Lower revenue growth, higher loss than expected and NZ revenue already shrinking. And now we are not so sure anymore whether the next FY will turn cash positive. I note that our 4-traders duty analyst (Edison? - they seem to be the only ones looking into this stock) downgraded from outperform to hold and put the target price down to $2.86. I'd love to see on what base they justify this target price - can't be the published CAGR and EPS predictions (which are consistent with the published Edison report).

    Even if I use these predictions does AFT still look expensive at the current SP of $2.42. Loss making startup with slowly growing revenue (and disappointing even modest market expectations). Forward PE of 50 (if you believe the optimistic scenario) and a revenue CAGR of 18 (same caveat). A share price around $1.50 would look fairer priced - but again, only if one believes the optimistic predictions ;

    No wonder the downtrend stays intact.

    Looks a bit like PEB to me - only that AFT have not even a cutting edge medical product ...
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 15-06-2018 at 10:15 AM.
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  9. #119
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    Cool Comparing AFT to PEB (or WYN) is insulting

    Actually I thought they were great - due to the lack of interest on here, and in the market (very illiquid), didn't see the point in mentioning highlights, like gross profit up 31% and a profit almost certain in FY19 - not that this would be their first profit of course, they have been very profitable in the past. This is far from a "loss making start up". I thought I was looking at Ryman when I saw the 18 years of consecutive revenue growth on page 3 - from $1m in 2000 to over $80m this year - and probably around $100m next year. Come 2021 - some analyst (who has a price target of $2.86 on it) reckons it will be in excess of $150m, with a PE of around 10 (at current share price). For a company with growth around 20%, year on year for the past 21 consecutive years, that sounds cheap to me... Mr Market still not convinced, and so need another few years of delivering - but going off that track record, I am pretty confident. Oh and its not Edison, their price target is $4 something.

    So what's holding it back? Track record? Incompetent management? Lack of growth opportunities to sustain impressive growth? Another capital raising? Hmm, I doubt they will need more capital, but perhaps Mr Market isn't too sure... what I do believe, after being a holder since IPO, is that AFT listed too early (jokes on me for participating in the IPO lol). The big holders (being Hartley and CRP, who control over 88% of the shares), have shown absolutely no interest in selling - so the big (potential) buyers (aka insto's) have shown no interest in buying - hence nothing really happens, and when it does happen it is pretty jerky and seems to revert to around $2.50 (AFT is up over 5% in the past 52 so the NZX 50 website tells me).

    Both Hartley and CRP probably hold as they believe they can take the company even further, and don't want to be a takeover target before 'they are ready' - fair enough, it is probably trading at a price way under what they think it is worth given a few more years (interesting to see management not only anticipating in the SPP a year ago, but also buying even more on market).

    It would seem, with an impressive track record (and many, many more opportunities to come - just read the annual report, lots of 'gems' in there) - it is only a matter of when, rather than if (as it is with PEB), the profits start to roll (back) in, and the share price has to rise, but until the company can 'prove it', and until someone decided to let liquidity open up a bit more, I can't see how the share price will climb much over the coming year, maybe 2, maybe even 3 years... but after that - this is probably one you don't want to miss (and it probably isn't going to get much lower than where it is now).
    Another 63 shareholders, +7.2%, on the register so at least a few more people seem interested
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 15-06-2018 at 10:44 AM.

  10. #120
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Actually I thought they were great - due to the lack of interest on here, and in the market (very illiquid), didn't see the point in mentioning highlights, like gross profit up 31% and a profit almost certain in FY19 - not that this would be their first profit of course, they have been very profitable in the past. This is far from a "loss making start up". I thought I was looking at Ryman when I saw the 18 years of consecutive revenue growth on page 3 - from $1m in 2000 to over $80m this year - and probably around $100m next year. Come 2021 - some analyst (who has a price target of $2.86 on it) reckons it will be in excess of $150m, with a PE of around 10 (at current share price). For a company with growth around 20%, year on year for the past 21 consecutive years, that sounds cheap to me... Mr Market still not convinced, and so need another few years of delivering - but going off that track record, I am pretty confident. Oh and its not Edison, their price target is $4 something.

    So what's holding it back? Track record? Incompetent management? Lack of growth opportunities to sustain impressive growth? Another capital raising? Hmm, I doubt they will need more capital, but perhaps Mr Market isn't too sure... what I do believe, after being a holder since IPO, is that AFT listed too early (jokes on me for participating in the IPO lol). The big holders (being Hartley and CRP, who control over 88% of the shares), have shown absolutely no interest in selling - so the big (potential) buyers (aka insto's) have shown no interest in buying - hence nothing really happens, and when it does happen it is pretty jerky and seems to revert to around $2.50 (AFT is up over 5% in the past 52 so the NZX 50 website tells me).

    Both Hartley and CRP probably hold as they believe they can take the company even further, and don't want to be a takeover target before 'they are ready' - fair enough, it is probably trading at a price way under what they think it is worth given a few more years (interesting to see management not only anticipating in the SPP a year ago, but also buying even more on market).

    It would seem, with an impressive track record (and many, many more opportunities to come - just read the annual report, lots of 'gems' in there) - it is only a matter of when, rather than if (as it is with PEB), the profits start to roll (back) in, and the share price has to rise, but until the company can 'prove it', and until someone decided to let liquidity open up a bit more, I can't see how the share price will climb much over the coming year, maybe 2, maybe even 3 years... but after that - this is probably one you don't want to miss (and it probably isn't going to get much lower than where it is now).
    Another 63 shareholders, +7.2%, on the register so at least a few more people seem interested
    Insulting for whom?

    I guess they are for a so called growth company quite slow growing. OHE anyone?

    They are on the international scene just another minuscule "me-too" with no moat ... and their praised differentiation is just a mix of two well known and generic pain killers where the patents did run out a long time ago. Any doctor can prescribe medication with the same effect but without using their product (and they do ...).

    Where do you see their competitive advantage? What can they do better than the big boys in Europe and the US or the cheap boys in India?

    And sure - board and management holding plenty of shares can be a good sign, but it can be as well a sign of some rich and incompetent celebrities deciding to run their own and other shareholders money into the ground. Look at the fortunes of OHE. Look at CBL ...

    I am not saying that AFT will go the same path, but it must be legitimate to ask what's different ...

    Holding lots of shares does not mean that the people holding them are clued up or capable to run a successful company ...

    Ah yes ... and you might be not quite up to date on Edison's research ... while they still use positive sounding words (I guess they are paid for that, aren't they) - predictions of growth and revenue did shrink somewhat since the last result presentation ...

    https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch...harmaceuticals

    I don't have their 12 month target, but given that they recently downrated earnings and revenue expectations would it make sense if they down rated the forecast SP as well.

    As well - do you know any other research company looking at AFT? There is only one analyst in 4-traders and I am pretty sure it is Edison.

    But hey, there are good evolutionary reasons for the endowment effect. Just a pity we can't get rid of it when dealing with stocks ; Anyway - I am sure we will review the performance of this company from time to time ... highly educational - looking forward to that ;
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 15-06-2018 at 11:16 AM.
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