AFT Pharmaceuticals

[peat]

Either

1) Maxigesic with its iboprofen in it not good if you get the virus

Or

2) t_j wishing like hell that the price goes down to $3.50

I've heard more recently that the ibuprofen contraindication with the 'rona has been withdrawn

However to answer whatsup, its not that unusual for stocks to get carried away and then retrace quite violently.

[HITMAN]

Slipping... now $4.23... nearly on the buy radar.
Probably the best value stock on the NZX right now if it was to drop below $4.

Jumped on board today, between BLT, ATM and now AFT here's hoping for some happy days.

[Cadalac123]

I find it extremely hard to value AFT. To be fair there has been an improvement in figures , however after the 9.8mil or so gain from IP rights to pascomer I think the results got heavily inflated and makes me question whether they can repeat that level without getting the one off IP gain again.

That said if pascomer trial goes well it’ll be great but that’s like punting on any biotech if you buy it just for that.

[peat]

I find it extremely hard to value AFT. To be fair there has been an improvement in figures , however after the 9.8mil or so gain from IP rights to pascomer I think the results got heavily inflated and makes me question whether they can repeat that level without getting the one off IP gain again.

That said if pascomer trial goes well it’ll be great but that’s like punting on any biotech if you buy it just for that.

I think the valuation reflects the potential of AFT to grow worldwide and also the possibility that it will become a takeover at some point in its future is also there in the mix. so the immediate profitability is not really driving the price imo.

[BlackPeter]

WHY has AFT lost approx. $1.00 ; 20% in the last few days ?

Ask T-J - these thing always seem to happen when he ramps too hard ... ;

[trader_jackson]

Amazing that this time last year hit an all time low of $1.70, and what a bizarre day... I was trying to stay silent in the hope it would quickly fall to around $3.50, but instead finished in the green - up over 8% since the low point.

BlackPeter - what's not to like about a company likely to grow EPS (adjusted) by 10-20%pa for the coming years, whilst on an underlying PE of about 33 for FY20 (excluding $9.8m one off gain). And before you say a PE of 33 is expensive, I look at FPH (a company with similar growth rates, probably lower than AFT over the coming years however) trading at something like nearly 70x PE - so AFT is cheap really! From FY21, there'll be a saving of $2m annually on interest costs, so EPS growth rate likely to be even higher than 20% from FY20 to FY21. FY21 underlying profit could be around $16m quite easily - at today's price that would put AFT on a forward PE of just 25.
For a company likely to grow significantly, underlined by strong yet diversified IP and product range... it is hard not to have shares in AFT when it is on a forward PE of just 25.
Haven't even begun to consider the prospect of a takeover, or if the insto's jump in on this and start the real ramp...

[macduffy]

I hold both FPH and AFT but to compare the latter with the former, at this stage, well...…………!

[trader_jackson]

I hold both FPH and AFT but to compare the latter with the former, at this stage, well...…………!

"I have seen the future" but yes, I agree FPH has a longer track record, and is a quality business - so give FPH's aprox 70 PE a 30% discount... and that still is well above AFT!

[BlackPeter]

Amazing that this time last year hit an all time low of $1.70, and what a bizarre day... I was trying to stay silent in the hope it would quickly fall to around $3.50, but instead finished in the green - up over 8% since the low point.

BlackPeter - what's not to like about a company likely to grow EPS (adjusted) by 10-20%pa for the coming years, whilst on an underlying PE of about 33 for FY20 (excluding $9.8m one off gain). And before you say a PE of 33 is expensive, I look at FPH (a company with similar growth rates, probably lower than AFT over the coming years however) trading at something like nearly 70x PE - so AFT is cheap really! From FY21, there'll be a saving of $2m annually on interest costs, so EPS growth rate likely to be even higher than 20% from FY20 to FY21. FY21 underlying profit could be around $16m quite easily - at today's price that would put AFT on a forward PE of just 25.
For a company likely to grow significantly, underlined by strong yet diversified IP and product range... it is hard not to have shares in AFT when it is on a forward PE of just 25.
Haven't even begun to consider the prospect of a takeover, or if the insto's jump in on this and start the real ramp...

FPH is clearly a well managed and profitable high tech company with lots of valuable IP. I still think that they are too dear at this stage ... and expect their price to fall back after the COVID bubble to return to the median. Clearly a good company to hold if you bought them at the right price.

AFT is a small pharmaceutical company with no moat worthwhile mentioning. They don't even produce their products locally, but are as dependent on Indian and Chinese factories as everybody else in the business. They don't control these factories, but are only one out of many clients getting their products there contract manufactured. As a consequence are their products neither better, nor more reliable sourced than any competing products. AFT are basically just another distributor of health products with often questionable benefits (e.g. the vitamin range). Their only significant IP is the idea to mix panadol and aspirin in one tablet (instead of getting the patients to take one tablet each), and this is anyway not a cure but just a painkiller. Not really breathtaking IP and easy to avoid.

I know they sell a lot of other stuff for the supermarket "health shelve" - but so can anybody else.

Not sure what they would be worth if they manage to become profitable (they haven't been for the last 6 years), but even if the predicted EPS of something like 18 cents average over the next three years is true - why would anybody want to pay more than say $1.5 to $2 for such a share?

But hey - you clearly foresee a stellar up leg for this company and it certainly did went up a bit. Question is just ... when do they run out of hype fuel and gravity starts pulling the SP back to the fundamentals?

[RRR]

Good time to raise capital and reduce expensive debt??
Many companies doing so currently and many more are preparing for the same..