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  1. #61
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Share prices are mostly reactive to statement made that will affect sustainable long term cash flows from product sales. A fee wavier is great, but doesn't warrant excitement when the business end of things aren't delivering highly. With puff pieces of their Maxigesic being licensed out to over 100 countries and yet no big revenue changes its not exactly a mood changer!
    Last edited by silverblizzard888; 28-03-2017 at 01:18 PM. Reason: grammar error

  2. #62
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    t_j did you bail out the other day taking the share price down to 230

    AFT chart looking sicker by the day - needs some Maxigesic maybe.

    Where to from here
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    t_j did you bail out the other day taking the share price down to 230

    AFT chart looking sicker by the day - needs some Maxigesic maybe.

    Where to from here
    Surely only upwards from here?

    Not sure Maxigesic will help the retail investors bailing understand that AFT have to invest in product development (etc) before dramatic jumps in growth will be seen on the bottom line... of course they could become profitable tomorrow (they have nearly always been profitable in the past, apparently) but the whole idea of raising capital on our great NZX was to help invest in AFT's innovative products... a little Crystaderm might help protect against further unexplained share price drops (impatient investors maybe?)
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 11-04-2017 at 09:18 PM.

  4. #64
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    Lightbulb 100m in 2019?

    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256588.pdf

    Interesting presentation, but also brief and to the point.

    "expected total income for FY2017 [in the upper end of the range], up from $65.8m in FY2016" so lets say $70.5m.

    Total Income analysis
    1st half 15 was $24.2m ($24.2m of operating revenue, no Licensing Income and not sure on grants)
    1st half 16 was $30.9m ($29.5m of operating revenue +21.9% on 1st half 15, 1m Licensing Income, $0.4m Research and development grant)
    1st half 17 was [a weak] $30.8m ($29.8m of operating revenue + 0.7% $0.7m Licensing Income, $0.3m Research and development grant)

    Therefore:
    2nd half 15 was $33.3m ($32m of operating revenue, $0.3m Licensing Income, $1m Research and development grant)
    2nd half 16 was $35.4m ($34.5m of operating revenue + 7.8% on 2nd half 15, $0.8m Licencing Income $0.1m Research and development grant)
    2nd half 17 expected $39.7m (expect 96% of total income to be operating revenue: ie $38.1m + 10.4% on 2nd half 16)

    It would appear growth is skewed towards the 2nd half, especially this year (with 2nd half operating revenue likely to be 23.7% higher than a bad first half)

    I estimate 1st half 18 operating revenue will be only a bit less than the same as 2nd half 17, say 1st half revenue of 36m
    2nd half 18, conservatively speaking, I estimate to be 25% higher than the first, meaning $45m
    (1st to 2nd in 2015: 32.2%, 1st to 2nd in 2016: 16.9%, 1st to 2nd in 2017:27.9% [?] - average over 3 year period: 25.7%)
    This reflecting increasing [expected] sales growth as development of products begins to 'flow through to sales'.

    Total Operating Revenues:
    48.9m 2014
    56.2m 2015 (+13.0%)
    64.0m 2016 (+13.9%
    67.9m 2017 (+6.1%)
    81m 2018 (+19.3%)

    Maybe in 2019 growth will accelerate back to the good old days, when the 10 year CAGR (to 2015) was 21% (if not done in 2018!)... Total Income would be surely be over $100m including licensing income and grants, and turn a profit this [2019] year? (like the good old profitable days)

    Will have to keep an eye on that cash burn... don't want another WYN (or OHE)

    Edison have a revenue estimate of 99.1m operating revenue and a profit of 0.3m for 2018 so maybe I am a bit to cautious with my 81m estimate... then again they also have a price target that is more than double the current market price ($4.76)... winner69 you'd think the market would meet in the middle maybe somewhere between current market price ($2.30) and Edison's target ($4.76)... if that was the case, we'd be above $3.50... got to see the jump in growth first I suppose.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 12-04-2017 at 03:11 PM.

  5. #65
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    https://nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/301469

    Another step in the right direction, this one apparently material... share price will likely go down eh?

  6. #66
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    This is a bit of a concern - I'm not sure how I missed it but it's the same thing as maxigesic except with 50 mg more ibuprofen per tablet (and a bigger marketing budget and distribution network).
    http://www.nurofen.com.au/our-produc...-pain/nuromol/

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    This is a bit of a concern - I'm not sure how I missed it but it's the same thing as maxigesic except with 50 mg more ibuprofen per tablet (and a bigger marketing budget and distribution network).
    http://www.nurofen.com.au/our-produc...-pain/nuromol/

    After a quick skim of the IP situation it would appear that AFT are only really pursuing NZ and US patents, which would give extra importance to success in the US market. In other markets a bigger competitor could swamp AFT on this product if they wanted to. Additionally, Reckitt Benckiser may be hedging their bets as their formulation falls outside of the seemingly quite specific claims in the AFT patents.

    I'd be pretty interested in hearing some opinions if anyone with experience in pharmaceutical patents is following this thread.

    Several (but potentially not all) of the AFT patents related to Maxigesic can be found with this search string: https://scholar.google.dk/scholar?st...=en&as_sdt=0,5

    Cheers

    Jimbo

  8. #68
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    AFT very similar to OHE... Overpromise and underdeliver. What a shame..AFT need to show profit dollars on the board, not just sales or promise of the sales..talk less and deliver more.

  9. #69
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    Default A few of the many reasons AFT cannot and should not be compared to OHE

    Quote Originally Posted by RRR View Post
    AFT very similar to OHE... Overpromise and underdeliver. What a shame..AFT need to show profit dollars on the board, not just sales or promise of the sales..talk less and deliver more.
    This is possibly the worst comparison I have read, atleast in a while… AFT is VERY different to OHE.
    OHE has one of big contracts (similar to WYN) based onsoftware which is questionable (it would seem).

    AFT has proven products with a specific and patented combinations(more of x doesn’t mean it is better), and the first and only pharmaceutical onthe NZX… probably why so many people in this country don’t understand it, but while US specialist healthcare investor CRG capital are only too happy to hand them more capital (literally) and have shares themselves... could explain why the share pricehas gone sideways (and comments such as AFT is similar to OHE appear…).


    AFT has actually been profitable in the past, for manyyears in fact, and could probably be profitable ‘tomorrow’ if they wanted to butare investing in research and development (this was the whole idea of the IPO) of new, promising products, which are on track, and on budget.


    AFT has made some positive announcements, some even ahead of schedule, which are not yet showing up on the top or bottom line (I agree with you on this), but willdo over the coming years (I believe)… in the meantime, the market will likely continue to misprice AFT (too low) mainly due to a misunderstanding of the company itself.


    OHE has continuously missed targets, and the company even admits this, AFT hasn’t at all, although has experienced some one of factors in the past year ish… the years ahead will be most interesting for AFT.


    Finally, AFT isn’t running on empty
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 22-05-2017 at 08:43 PM.

  10. #70
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    This is a bit of a concern - I'm not sure how I missed it but it's the same thing as maxigesic except with 50 mg more ibuprofen per tablet (and a bigger marketing budget and distribution network).
    http://www.nurofen.com.au/our-produc...-pain/nuromol/
    Take a home brand paracetamol and ibuprofen tablet at the same time then * PATENT IT *

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