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Thread: ATC- Altech HPA

  1. #231
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    I haven't sold yet somehow I'm tempted to participate in the Rights Issue although I don't really understand the complex German strategy Iggy is implementing. Out of curiosity anyone still keeping faith with this coy?

  2. #232
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    I haven't sold yet somehow I'm tempted to participate in the Rights Issue although I don't really understand the complex German strategy Iggy is implementing. Out of curiosity anyone still keeping faith with this coy?
    Ex-long term holder here. Sold out after the announcement of the latest CR.

    The core problem is that Iggy does not find people with sufficient faith into the business proposition. No matter how complicated they structure their finance - it does not solve the core problem.

    If the market for HPA would be as good as Iggy's charts show, than one of the big players in the industry would have already bought into the company or have taken it over. A less than $40m market cap is peanuts for them. Nobody queuing up. Market for HPA is clearly not as good as ATC wants to make us believe.

    Last straw for me was a recent phone call with Iggy. He was nice and friendly and did not give me any new information, but he compared the search for interim finance with a fishing expedition.

    I asked myself whether I would keep throwing money at a fisher who didn't catch a fish for three years (despite trying - LOL). The answer was pretty obvious for me.

    Does not exclude ATC having luck in the future, but sheer luck is not normally a good investment strategy.

    Anyway - good luck to holders, you deserve it (and I think you will need it)!
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #233
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    Thanks for the feedback. If there is one thing I'm not good at is admitting that I was wrong and move on. ATC has been by far my worst investment decision over the last 5 years yet even after losing faith in Iggy I still have this wishful thinking that it somehow must be coming right.

    Maybe I should invest in a life coach to teach me how to rip off band aids. Might be a good investment in the future.

  4. #234
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    Hi Silu, I hope you still have TLG, that would cheer you up a bit.
    cheers

  5. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by SPARKY View Post
    Hi Silu, I hope you still have TLG, that would cheer you up a bit.
    cheers
    Oh I do and yes very happy - see separate thread if you want to join in!

  6. #236
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    Holding in the red. HPA critical to getting the most out of Li batteries. Will participate in CR and a handful of oversubs as the option is compelling IMO. Pity the financing strategy is a little unclear. Connection to SMS keeping me in.

  7. #237
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ninefingers View Post
    Holding in the red. HPA critical to getting the most out of Li batteries. Will participate in CR and a handful of oversubs as the option is compelling IMO. Pity the financing strategy is a little unclear. Connection to SMS keeping me in.
    Do you have any explanation why the search to find mezzanine finance is now going into the fourth year? That's not bad luck or Covid or whatever - this is a bad business case.

    I gave them three years (and this was probably two years too many) to complete the finance. Iggy paid himself quite nicely during this time.

    While HPA might be important to make Lithium batteries (and LED's, and scratch resistant glass) - the fact that NONE of the intended customers is prepared to give ATC a purchase guarantee for parts of their production (i.e. signing off on amount and price) does show clearly to me that either the market needs neither ATC nor its production or - Iggy and his team don't talk with the right people. Whatever it is - neither would be good.

    ATC stated clearly that the HPA market is "opaque". This means to me that neither supply shortfall (if any) nor price are predictable. This stopped Macca to provide the mezzanine finance, and this will in my view stop anybody else as well. The latest CR won't further the project - it is just to pay Iggy's and the teams salaries for another year or so. Afterwards they will need to raise some serious cash (if they are successful in year four) or a similar amount to finance their salaries in 2022 ...

    Anyway - this was what I pondered on, when I sold my parcel (ways in the red).

    Good luck - this was as well what Iggy said to me when we ended our recent telephone conversation ...
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 01-12-2020 at 03:11 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #238
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    Item Proceeds of the Offer ($) %
    1 Deferred consideration - acquisition of shares AAM AG 2,000,000 13.8
    2 Stage 2 early works HPA plant payments 5,800,000 39.9
    3 Senior Loan Commitment fees 260,000 1.8
    4 Development works - HPA Anode product 700,000 4.8
    5 Due Diligence & Feasibility Study - German HPA Plant 700,000 4.8
    6 Green Bonds 860,000 5.9
    7 Land - Schwarze Pumpe, Germany (ATC portion) 1,350,000 9.3
    8 Expenses of the Offer 400,000 2.8
    9 Corporate costs and working capital 2,463,392 16.9
    Total 14,533,392 100.0

    Seems they are spreading the cash around various work streams.
    Interesting you had a 3 year hold time, I do too, 1.5 years to go though hence why the 18month options I like.
    The fact they were approached for the anode coating shows to me that, although an opaque industry, their scientific contributions are valued. Similarly approached to look at a German plant.

  9. #239
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ninefingers View Post
    Item Proceeds of the Offer ($) %
    1 Deferred consideration - acquisition of shares AAM AG 2,000,000 13.8
    2 Stage 2 early works HPA plant payments 5,800,000 39.9
    3 Senior Loan Commitment fees 260,000 1.8
    4 Development works - HPA Anode product 700,000 4.8
    5 Due Diligence & Feasibility Study - German HPA Plant 700,000 4.8
    6 Green Bonds 860,000 5.9
    7 Land - Schwarze Pumpe, Germany (ATC portion) 1,350,000 9.3
    8 Expenses of the Offer 400,000 2.8
    9 Corporate costs and working capital 2,463,392 16.9
    Total 14,533,392 100.0

    Seems they are spreading the cash around various work streams.
    Interesting you had a 3 year hold time, I do too, 1.5 years to go though hence why the 18month options I like.
    The fact they were approached for the anode coating shows to me that, although an opaque industry, their scientific contributions are valued. Similarly approached to look at a German plant.
    Actually - was holding for roughly 5 years, the three years I mentioned are only the time since they managed to secure their KfW loan. Silly me thought at that stage that this basically secured the finance for the project. How wrong I was ...

    What however really bugs me is that Iggy is still using in his presentations the same prediction of the HPA market (starting with forecasts (not actual data) for 2015 - LOL) he was using already 5 years ago. No updated numbers for the years passed. I think this clearly indicates that he has as well no clue how much 4N HPA the industry really needs - and what customers are paying for it.

    As I said - they may or may not be successful in the end, but after three years without any progress on securing the last bit of finance nobody can say they are lucky.

    Good old Fritz (Friedrich II - King of Prussia) is said that he promoted in his army only officers people called lucky. I think this was a good strategy :
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #240
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    BlackPeter for what it's worth after your comments I ruminated on your points and put the funds into a gold share instead, which so far has been a better performer.

    Still believe Altech will come good, I like the technology.

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