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Thread: ATC- Altech HPA

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Nice story. Only issue is - SMS group is currently already the largest shareholder! They do hold nearly 39 million shares (close to 7%).

    https://www.altechchemicals.com/top-20-shareholders

    No matter what games will be played with the shareprice - they certainly want the project to succeed. And yes - they committed to put another $15 million or so in the pot when finance is approved.

    As well - I don't think that any committed stakeholder will be interested to see the SP drop close to or below NTA - which is around 6 cents per share. This would be a takeover target too juicy for any of the competitors chasing ATC to ignore. Just imagine - if your 2 cent would be anywhere close to reality than they could buy the company, the process (including IP), the resources, all consents and a well planned and consented factory at 1/3rd of bookvalue. Yeah - right.
    Thanks Bp,

    2 cents was a throw away comment. I havnt yet worked out how future capital raisings and delays could effect current share price.

    Again, i am looking to time my buy in. But i think the SP has a long way down to go.

    My first purchase at 17 cents is looking pretty grim. Mabye in 4 years it will be 170 cents.👍

  2. #182
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpenterjoe View Post
    Thanks Bp,

    2 cents was a throw away comment. I havnt yet worked out how future capital raisings and delays could effect current share price.

    Again, i am looking to time my buy in. But i think the SP has a long way down to go.

    My first purchase at 17 cents is looking pretty grim. Mabye in 4 years it will be 170 cents.��
    OK - I do see your problem. My average buy in price is around 11 cents ... makes me a bit more relaxed ;

    Not sure about 170 cents in 4 years (unless HPA stays the only realistic separator for high capacity lithium batteries, which is possible). I think however that something between 40 to 80 cents would be more realistic.

    And yes - it might go lower before that - but depends on the finance story. Might come as a Christmas present (didn't they talk about end of November)? After finance is settled people will wonder why they didn't buy more shares at the current sale prices.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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  4. #184
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    Seem to remember but happy to be corrected the IRR re 22%. If so ,just not enough to justify the risks for me.

  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Seem to remember but happy to be corrected the IRR re 22%. If so ,just not enough to justify the risks for me.
    For sure it's a longer term play-for me it's a legacy investment.

  6. #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwitrev View Post
    For sure it's a longer term play-for me it's a legacy investment.
    Same. I'm looking 10-20 years here getting me towards my retirement.

    Re Chairman's letter. Usually I think explaining is losing but the market seems to like it.

  7. #187
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    Shoot, what is going on? funding issues or the opposite? maybe being a bit more sensible regarding the timing of capital. thoughts everyone? i suppose this is expected when a company goes ahead to maintain momentum.

  8. #188
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpenterjoe View Post
    Shoot, what is going on? funding issues or the opposite? maybe being a bit more sensible regarding the timing of capital. thoughts everyone? i suppose this is expected when a company goes ahead to maintain momentum.
    Hard to say - the proposed $30m placement might have been just part of the negotitation tactics with the stream and mezz finance partners to demonstrate that ATC have alternatives in raising the capital if they don't like the conditions offered by the partners.

    Just sort of misfired ... I think first time I have seen them screwing up ...

    Anyway - does not change the fundamentals, but might have improved the hand of the finance partners.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #189
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    Considering today's announcement, I suspect no substantial works will be done this side of Christmas, could be a Feb start. I hate having to read between the lines of their announcements.

    So maybe they will complete stage one within the next 5 months. I suspect this could be a factor why the last CR was put on hold.

    We will need to keep an eye on this loan commitment fee and how it effects cash flow. First time I have heard of a loan commitment fee.

    I wonder how much the share price will jump when the sort out finance and building consent.

  10. #190
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    My spidey senses are telling me that maybe an announcement re the mezzanine debt is imminent. I know there will be another CR raise coming but it wouldn't go amiss rewarding shareholders with some cherries on top.

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