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Thread: ATC- Altech HPA

  1. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwitrev View Post
    Project is inching forward, however latest valuation from Petra Capital yesterday who attended the first steel raising at Johor site, reveals info. on finance and timing of project with conservative assumptions.

    https://www.altechchemicals.com/site...20May%2019.pdf
    Thanks for sharing. Would have been nice to have Mezzanine debt finalized by now but I'm still happy to be a holder in ATC which is a big investment for me.

  2. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    Thanks for sharing. Would have been nice to have Mezzanine debt finalized by now but I'm still happy to be a holder in ATC which is a big investment for me.
    May I ask what % of your portfolio it is? I only have 1.5% as it's quite a long term process until profitability, although risk seems low.

  3. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elles View Post
    May I ask what % of your portfolio it is? I only have 1.5% as it's quite a long term process until profitability, although risk seems low.
    5% (avg 13.5c) which is the upper limit for speculative stocks with my albeit sometimes loose rules.

  4. #199
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    Holders (and non holders) will be interested in this report on future HPA prices by CRU Consulting. CRU are providing a report for Macquarrie (preferred financier) for US$90m.
    https://www.altechchemicals.com/site...ts/6935662.pdf

  5. #200
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    Still holding. Still waiting for financial close. What do you reckon Trev? If we get the first plant up and running a second one should be relatively easy to build and with re-financing much cheaper too given we have the off-take agreement with Mitsubishi?

  6. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    Still holding. Still waiting for financial close. What do you reckon Trev? If we get the first plant up and running a second one should be relatively easy to build and with re-financing much cheaper too given we have the off-take agreement with Mitsubishi?
    It certainly takes time. From a personal perspective - I don't see it as "if", more than "when" will they get their factory up and running. It all takes longer than expected, but this is the way projects normally go.

    Looking at the report - I don't think shareholders need to be concerned about the uptake when the factory is producing, and yes, cloning the first factory should be quite easy. But first let's get the first factory up and running. It was 2 years to production in 2015, it was 2 years to production in 2017 and it was 2 years to production in 2019. Let us hope this is a case of third time lucky!

    ATC timeplan.PNG
    Timeline from the 2015 Breakaway "research" report;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    Still holding. Still waiting for financial close. What do you reckon Trev? If we get the first plant up and running a second one should be relatively easy to build and with re-financing much cheaper too given we have the off-take agreement with Mitsubishi?
    Hi Silu
    BP says it all really. The other significant point that arises from the CRU report is the material increase that will occur to the NPV-currently $666m on 4500tpa-if, as is expected, ramp up to 6000tpa is forecast.

  8. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwitrev View Post
    Hi Silu
    BP says it all really. The other significant point that arises from the CRU report is the material increase that will occur to the NPV-currently $666m on 4500tpa-if, as is expected, ramp up to 6000tpa is forecast.
    News from HC. Looks as if we might be on our way but more details needed. Check ATC website for any announcement they will make.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/opt...st_id=39572034

  9. #204
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    Wow. Understanding this deal fully yet is probably above my pay-grade but from my understanding valuing the HPA project at approx US$204m (US$100m for 49%) is not too shabby.
    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201907...tnbs5brp56.pdf
    Last edited by silu; 18-07-2019 at 11:32 AM.

  10. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwitrev View Post
    News from HC. Looks as if we might be on our way but more details needed. Check ATC website for any announcement they will make.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/opt...st_id=39572034
    Here's the official ATC announcement
    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201907...tnbs5brp56.pdf
    Sorry Silu didn't realise your post on way
    Last edited by kiwitrev; 18-07-2019 at 11:33 AM. Reason: incomplete

  11. #206
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    Highlights from this announcement:

    • Agreement to acquire 29% of German (Frankfurt) listed public company
    • German public company name will change to Altech Advanced Materials AG
    • Sale of a non-exclusive right to acquire up to 49% of Altech’s HPA project for US$100m
    • Access to larger pool of European institutional investors
    • Enhanced project valuation and less dilutionary for current Altech shareholders
    • Aligns with European investors desire for battery materials exposure

  12. #207
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    No worries Trev. You like me are probably a bit excited and try to make sense of it all
    Last edited by silu; 18-07-2019 at 11:38 AM.

  13. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    No worries Trev. You like me are probably a bit excited and try to make sense of it all
    Yes. A very convoluted deal and obviously requiring expert input into the whole thing. If it all works out the best bit is minimizing the amount of dilution.

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  15. #210
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    Interesting esp regarding second plant in Germany. I always expected that Johor won't be their one and only plant should they successfully finish it. I guess the numbers still work shipping the kaolin from Meckering to Europe and add the higher compliance costs?

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