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Thread: ATC- Altech HPA

  1. #81
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    Capital cost higher now $298 mill IRR 22% 3.9 years to pay off debt "The HPA price used in the Project financial model is US$33.72/kg in year 1, reducing to US$ 26.18/kg in year 9 and maintained at this level until year 30 " Current price in Japan $US 40. kg, finance decision in Dec. KFW Ipex Bank proposed to fund $185 million. Sell on the fact tomorrow?
    Download Document 1018.37KB
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 24-10-2017 at 07:23 AM.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Capital cost higher now $298 mill IRR 22% 3.9 years to pay off debt "The HPA price used in the Project financial model is US$33.72/kg in year 1, reducing to US$ 26.18/kg in year 9 and maintained at this level until year 30 " Current price in Japan $US 40. kg, finance decision in Dec. KFW Ipex Bank proposed to fund $185 million. Sell on the fact tomorrow?
    Download Document 1018.37KB
    Sure looks like an opportunity to entry at lower SP no doubt to come in short term. Med/LT still a great project, fundamentals to business case not changed just the cost of getting up and running which is covered by forecast to EBIT and payback period.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiwitrev View Post
    Sure looks like an opportunity to entry at lower SP no doubt to come in short term. Med/LT still a great project, fundamentals to business case not changed just the cost of getting up and running which is covered by forecast to EBIT and payback period.
    The forecasts all look rosy for the future at full ramp up capacity, but the one figure that concerns me is the IRR 22%, very low for what is meant to be a high demand product, large long life project. Only takes a few technical problems getting the purity consistent or increase in costs and that figure gets marginal.

    The fact they have stated the price is likely to taper off doesn't help either...

    I'll wait until they get the purity right in production before buying back in

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by shasta View Post
    The forecasts all look rosy for the future at full ramp up capacity, but the one figure that concerns me is the IRR 22%, very low for what is meant to be a high demand product, large long life project. Only takes a few technical problems getting the purity consistent or increase in costs and that figure gets marginal.

    The fact they have stated the price is likely to taper off doesn't help either...

    I'll wait until they get the purity right in production before buying back in
    Holders will be aware of this publication but am posting it for benefit of non-holders.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/wes...3#.WfTxIrpuKZ8

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    Thanks KT, i hadn't cited that announcement on friday . Awaiting German Govt sign off on the 14th Dec which looks a done deal atp.

    "Interestingly, the study was based on a highly conservative average HPA price of US$26.90/kg over the 30-year initial project life. The study noted that if the current HPA market price of US$40/kg was assumed, the project would then show an internal rate of return of 33%, an annual EBITDA of AUD$170m and a net present value of just over AUD$1.4 billion"

  6. #86
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    BTW I've coatailed into FYI with an initial small stake.
    Download Document 1.12MB

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thanks KT, i hadn't cited that announcement on friday . Awaiting German Govt sign off on the 14th Dec which looks a done deal atp.

    "Interestingly, the study was based on a highly conservative average HPA price of US$26.90/kg over the 30-year initial project life. The study noted that if the current HPA market price of US$40/kg was assumed, the project would then show an internal rate of return of 33%, an annual EBITDA of AUD$170m and a net present value of just over AUD$1.4 billion"
    And here is another interview with Iggy, much more detailed info. read it right thru'.
    https://theconstantinvestor.com/the-...-for-sapphire/

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    Thanks for sharing Trev. Was particularly please about this line "The company’s currently valued at about $55-60 million on the stock exchange, it tripled in the last couple of years and Iggy is saying that given all of the stuff that they’ve locked in, that is the offtake agreement and supply agreements and so on, they’ll be making at least that much in cash in three years’ time per annum".

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    Thanks for sharing Trev. Was particularly please about this line "The company’s currently valued at about $55-60 million on the stock exchange, it tripled in the last couple of years and Iggy is saying that given all of the stuff that they’ve locked in, that is the offtake agreement and supply agreements and so on, they’ll be making at least that much in cash in three years’ time per annum".
    No worries, here's another from Sophisticated Investorshttps://hotcopper.com.au/threads/news-final-investment-decision-study-followed-by-successful-17m-raising.3795099/?post_id=28314669#.WfafULpuKZ8

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    I feel really good about the SMS involvement. These guys are no mugs. The fact that they offer fixed lump sum construction of the plant and guarantee quality control makes me rest easy.

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