Tegel IPO

[Beagle]

I've been told there is already a large Phillipino community in their workforce. Very profficient in boning out I've been informed.

IPO investors at $1.55 have a bone to pick as well, in my opinion.

[bull....]

bounty continues to buy on market, guess makes the takeover cost cheaper the more they buy on market before officially launching takeover.

[Arbroath]

bounty continues to buy on market, guess makes the takeover cost cheaper the more they buy on market before officially launching takeover.

It is an interesting situation as if they don't get OIO approval they'll have probably a 10%+ stake at a cost of $1.15 or so. Am surprised at all the selling essentially 13c under the offer price of $1.271 ($1.23 +4.1c dividend).

Feels like it is very likely to go through, say 85-90% done as only an OIO rejection will derail it unless they come out with a big downgrade from already downgraded guidance which is unlikely also.

[bull....]

It is an interesting situation as if they don't get OIO approval they'll have probably a 10%+ stake at a cost of $1.15 or so. Am surprised at all the selling essentially 13c under the offer price of $1.271 ($1.23 +4.1c dividend).

Feels like it is very likely to go through, say 85-90% done as only an OIO rejection will derail it unless they come out with a big downgrade from already downgraded guidance which is unlikely also.

the company already did all the downgrading a while ago , oio would seem silly to reject it when it is already owned by overseas company already? they could take a leaf out of trumps book and use national security as a reason.

lots of funds selling is interesting? missing out on plenty of dough for unitholders

[rainey]

Do they require OIC approval, as many of our companies have majority overseas holdings anyway Surprised at the absence of directors comments

the company already did all the downgrading a while ago , oio would seem silly to reject it when it is already owned by overseas company already? they could take a leaf out of trumps book and use national security as a reason.

lots of funds selling is interesting? missing out on plenty of dough for unitholders

[Arbroath]

the company already did all the downgrading a while ago , oio would seem silly to reject it when it is already owned by overseas company already? they could take a leaf out of trumps book and use national security as a reason.

lots of funds selling is interesting? missing out on plenty of dough for unitholders

Agree Bull - as its already effectively controlled by an Asian based PE fund it would be very odd to reject the deal and would reek of political interference if it was rejected. My gut says it is 99% a done deal and just awaiting formal announcement to see the timing of when the $1.23 will be paid - maybe July/August timewise - once timing is firmed up in a couple of weeks might see it move closer to $1.20

[bull....]

Agree Bull - as its already effectively controlled by an Asian based PE fund it would be very odd to reject the deal and would reek of political interference if it was rejected. My gut says it is 99% a done deal and just awaiting formal announcement to see the timing of when the $1.23 will be paid - maybe July/August timewise - once timing is firmed up in a couple of weeks might see it move closer to $1.20

the fact they are buying on market means they are serious , even if the t/o didnt pass over the line they effectively control the company now anyway.I would feel fairly confident they are better operators than the current owners.

[Valuegrowth]

Real value of a company cannot find out within the short period. We need to study any company at least for five years to get better idea. Once identify potential in an investment, we can put more eggs there rather than putting eggs in unknown business and then lose money. If they can produce strong balance sheet, there could be more demand for this stock. Debt free and cash rich companies (with long term business) in this sector have potential to become multibaggers. Emerging strong balance sheet firms will stand out from the rest.

[bull....]

anyone read the nbr article on tegel today and can give us the goss

[Beagle]

anyone read the nbr article on tegel today and can give us the goss

Deal not certain by any means and subject to OIO approval, financial performance for this year AND last but certainly not least subject to the outlook for the following six months after that being within stipulated parameters.
Quite a few insto's taking the money and running based on the degree of uncertainty caused by multiple conditions, none of which individually and certainly collectively are certain to be fulfilled. Some named insto's selling about half their holdings as a good risk management initiative, which could be food for thought for retail holders ?

In terms of the Beagle weighing in on Tegal, (sorry couldn't resist) my thoughts are at $1.15 if this takeover proceeds and meets all conditions you won't get the extra 8 cents for many months plus a dividend of about 4 cents. Maximum upside is thus just 12 cents and you have to wait probably several months for it and you risk a possible downside of about triple the upside potential, perhaps even more if things go pear shaped. When one then considers the opportunity cost, (what else you could invest in and collect dividends and potential capital gains on over the months ahead I really struggle to see much mileage in playing Russian roulette with this one and continuing to hold.

I will feel very sad for IPO investors at $1.55 if they keep holding under the premise of trying to get as much of their capital back as possible only to find the deal falls over and this reverts to 70-80 cents which in my opinion is quite possible if they fail to meet profit guidance or outlook, or both.

Why would one trust them to meet profit guidance when they have failed EVERY other time since listing ?

Take the money and RUN !!!