sharetrader
Page 109 of 160 FirstFirst ... 95999105106107108109110111112113119159 ... LastLast
Results 1,081 to 1,090 of 1593

Thread: Tegel IPO

  1. #1081
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    77

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    but the red line has headed down since july

    good to see what you want to see eh?
    haha maybe

    But trading volume have been stale for the past few month, with the amount of liquidity passing through the nzx you really just have to interpret short term price deviance with a grain of salt.

    Time will tell though, now that mgmt have taken a conservative approach, it'd be interesting to see what sort of guidance are given for FY18

  2. #1082
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    In a bubble
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    but the red line has headed down since july

    good to see what you want to see eh?
    Having broken out of the year long downward trend, it looks like it is forming a solid base in the 115-130 channel.

    I will like to keep the chart up to date whenever the CPI is released and see if there is a solid correlation argument moving forward - the past years underperformance clearly reflects the downward spiral of chicken prices.
    Last edited by hardt; 08-09-2017 at 02:45 PM.

  3. #1083
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hardt View Post
    Having broken out of the year long downward trend, it looks like it is forming a solid base in the 115-130 channel.

    I will like to keep the chart up to date whenever the CPI is released and see if there is a solid correlation argument moving forward - the past years underperformance clearly reflects the downward spiral of chicken prices.
    See price fell from $14.81 in July to $14.21 in August

    Hope correlation with TGH share price is weak eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1084
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hardt View Post
    Having broken out of the year long downward trend, it looks like it is forming a solid base in the 115-130 channel.

    I will like to keep the chart up to date whenever the CPI is released and see if there is a solid correlation argument moving forward - the past years underperformance clearly reflects the downward spiral of chicken prices.
    See price fell from $14.81 in July to $14.21 in August

    Lower than a year ago

    Hope correlation with TGH share price is weak eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #1085
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    In a bubble
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    See price fell from $14.81 in July to $14.21 in August

    Lower than a year ago

    Hope correlation with TGH share price is weak eh
    Makes perfect sense winner, August last year TGH was trading in the 150-170 range.

    The next few months Sept - Dec are the important ones to look out for, as we can see in the below chart.




    Great pick for a dividend portfolio in my opinion.


    TEGEL GROUP FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18F FY19F FY20F FY17A-FY20F CAGR%
    OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED - NZDm 484.5 517.2 562.7 582.4 613.9 646.0 686.0 721.0 5.51%
    Domestic market revenues 421.5 430.2 474.7 480.9 511.0 539.5 576.0 606.0 5.85%
    Export market revenues 63.0 87.0 88.0 101.5 102.9 106.5 110.0 115.0 3.78%
    OPERATING EXPENSES INCURRED - NZDm 424.7 473.3 501.4 507.5 538.7 568.0 605.0 637.0 5.75%
    Cost of goods sold 337.2 387.5 411.2 416.6 449.4 472.5 505.3 532.0
    Logistics expenses incurred 43.5 48.0 47.9 50.5 53.2 58.0 61.2 65.0
    Corporate and other expenses incurred 44.0 37.8 42.3 40.4 36.1 37.5 38.5 40.0
    UNDERLYING EBITDA GENERATED - NZDm 59.8 43.9 61.3 74.9 75.6 78.0 81.0 84.0 3.57%
    Depreciation and amortisation incurred 20.8 18.2 18.8 18.4 19.5 20.0 21.0 21.0
    Corporate tax incurred -12.6 -5.8 2.1 5.4 13.6 15.7 16.7 17.5
    NET DEBT - NZDm 361.2 267.7 268.5 253.0 106.6 100.0 100.0 100.0
    Debt interest incurred 40.2 35.2 35.0 28.2 6.2 3.1 2.9 2.9
    Operating Free Cashflows - - - 24.1 45.3 49.8 52.5 55 6.68%
    ADJUSTED NPAT - NZDm 11.7 -3.6 5.5 23.7 36.1 39.2 40.4 42.6 5.67%
    Underlying EPS - Cents per share 3.29 nil 1.55 6.66 10.14 11.01 11.35 11.97
    Payout Ratio % 0 0 0 0 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77
    Net dividend payment - Cents per share nil nil nil nil 7.55 8.26 8.63 9.22 6.42%
    Last edited by hardt; 25-09-2017 at 12:17 AM.

  6. #1086
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hardt View Post
    TV EV
    2017 45.3*1.10 = 49.83 (49.83/1.105^1) = 45.10
    2018 50*1.05 = 52.50 (52.5/1.105^2) = 43.00
    2019 52.5*1.05 = 55.13 (55.13/1.105^3) = 40.86
    2020 55.13*1.05 = 57.89 (57.89/1.105^4) = 38.83
    57.89*(1.05)/(0.105-0.05) = 1,105.17 (1,105/1.105^5) = 670.73
    Net DEBT = 106.60
    Enterprise V = 731.92
    Shares Issued = 355.91
    DCF TGH = $2.06
    Graham Valuation = (10.15*(8.5+(2*3.5))*4.4/4.5)/100 = $1.54

    Been drinking a bit, I am sure I have skewed it one way or another.

    Discount rate at 10.5%

    FCF growth rate set at 5%

    LT earnings growth rate at 3.5%
    No doubt the drink fine tuned your analytical skills to get a good result

    I assume your starting point of $45.3m is the Operating Cash Flow in the 2017 accounts. If not ignore the rest of the post

    No capex in your calsc? Alllow for some modest capex of $10m pa (last year $20m and forecasts seem higher than $10m) and your equity value drops to $1.50. I also adjusted for your sneaky move of growing the final years cash flow by 5% before doing the TV calculation

    And isn't 5% pa growth forever a bit outrageous. Wind that back to 2.5% and equity value is $1.07

    No doubt a realistic number is somewhere in between - maybe $1.30 ...now that's spooky eh

    Might need to change the discount rate to get what you want eh
    Last edited by winner69; 25-09-2017 at 11:23 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #1087
    IMO
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Floating Anchor Shoals
    Posts
    9,696

    Default

    Thanks for sharing your research hardt and critiquing it w69.

  8. #1088
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    hardt - a bit bored today so did a TGH DCF valuation using my methodology

    For what's it worth using your ebitda growth assumptions (except term growth at 2.5%) and discount 10.5% I get $1.31

    Using my assumptions I get $1.42

    As amatter of interest Tegal management cash flow forecasts to support ebitda us a 4% ebitda growth and discount rate of 8.8%
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #1089
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    In a bubble
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    hardt - a bit bored today so did a TGH DCF valuation using my methodology

    For what's it worth using your ebitda growth assumptions (except term growth at 2.5%) and discount 10.5% I get $1.31

    Using my assumptions I get $1.42

    As amatter of interest Tegal management cash flow forecasts to support ebitda us a 4% ebitda growth and discount rate of 8.8%
    Excel picked up the pattern and placed a sequential power "^" for this - (Terminal Value/1.105^5)

    Should have been to the power of 4 and not 5 for working out the 4th year obviously - this inebriated trash heap puts out a lot of garbage that the sober one has to clean up!

    I do believe cash flows will be a % or two above where the below DCF models take it.

    Thanks for the work Winner.

    VALUATION AT 2.5% FCF & 10.5% DR
    TV EV
    2017 45.3*1.025 = 46.43 (46.43/1.105^1) = 42.02
    2018 46.43*1.025 = 47.59 (47.59/1.105^2) = 38.98
    2019 47.59*1.025 = 48.78 (48.78/1.105^3) = 36.15
    2020 48.78*1.025 = 50.00 (50/1.105^4) = 33.54
    2021 50.00*1.025 = 51.25 (51.25/1.105^5) = 31.11
    51.25*(1.025)/(0.085-0.025) = 875.52 (875.52/1.105^5) = 531.44
    DEBT = 106.60
    EV = 606.63
    Shares Outstanding = 355.91
    DCF TGH = $1.70
    VALUATION AT 1.5% FCF & 8.8% DR
    TV EV
    2017 45.3*1.015 = 45.98 (45.98/1.088^1) = 42.26
    2018 45.98*1.015 = 46.67 (46.67/1.088^2) = 39.43
    2019 46.67*1.015 = 47.37 (47.37/1.088^3) = 36.78
    2020 47.37*1.015 = 48.08 (48.08/1.088^4) = 34.31
    2021 48.08*1.015 = 48.80 (48.80/1.088^5) = 32.01
    48.8*(1.015)/(0.088-0.015) = 678.52 (678.52/1.088^5) = 445.06
    DEBT = 106.60
    EV = 523.25
    Shares Outstanding = 355.91
    DCF TGH = $1.47
    Last edited by hardt; 25-09-2017 at 10:28 PM.

  10. #1090
    Member Te Whetu's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    65

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hardt View Post
    Excel picked up the pattern and placed a sequential power "^" for this - (Terminal Value/1.105^5)

    Should have been to the power of 4 and not 5 for working out the 4th year obviously - this inebriated trash heap puts out a lot of garbage that the sober one has to clean up!

    I do believe cash flows will be a % or two above where the below DCF models take it.

    Thanks for the work Winner.

    VALUATION AT 2.5% FCF & 10.5% DR
    TV EV
    2017 45.3*1.025 = 46.43 (46.43/1.105^1) = 42.02
    2018 46.43*1.025 = 47.59 (47.59/1.105^2) = 38.98
    2019 47.59*1.025 = 48.78 (48.78/1.105^3) = 36.15
    2020 48.78*1.025 = 50.00 (50/1.105^4) = 33.54
    2021 50.00*1.025 = 51.25 (51.25/1.105^5) = 31.11
    51.25*(1.025)/(0.085-0.025) = 875.52 (875.52/1.105^5) = 531.44
    DEBT = 106.60
    EV = 606.63
    Shares Outstanding = 355.91
    DCF TGH = $1.70
    VALUATION AT 1.5% FCF & 8.8% DR
    TV EV
    2017 45.3*1.015 = 45.98 (45.98/1.088^1) = 42.26
    2018 45.98*1.015 = 46.67 (46.67/1.088^2) = 39.43
    2019 46.67*1.015 = 47.37 (47.37/1.088^3) = 36.78
    2020 47.37*1.015 = 48.08 (48.08/1.088^4) = 34.31
    2021 48.08*1.015 = 48.80 (48.80/1.088^5) = 32.01
    48.8*(1.015)/(0.088-0.015) = 678.52 (678.52/1.088^5) = 445.06
    DEBT = 106.60
    EV = 523.25
    Shares Outstanding = 355.91
    DCF TGH = $1.47


    For the VALUATION AT 2.5% FCF & 10.5% DR valuation, you are calculating Terminal Value based on a 8.5% discount rate. This is having a material impact on your valuation.

    Also, this is probably pedantic, but anyway... I am unsure of your valuation date; however, it looks like a while ago. One option is to:
    • adjust the first years earnings based on how far through we are;
    • discount mid-period;
    • adjust net debt for dividends since April (increase debt); and
    • adjust net debt for likely earnings since April (reduced debt, lets hope).


    EDIT: Also, since you are increasing the cash flows at a constant rate, you should get the same result as if you just applied the Gordon Growth model to your first cash flow. As an example, using your second valuation (1.5% and 8.5%):

    Enterprise value = 45.3*(1.015)/(0.088-0.015) = 629.86
    Equity value = 629.86 enterprise value – 106.6 debt = 523.26
    Share value = 523.26 equity value / 355.9 shares = $1.47 per share.

    This is the same result as your DCF.

    By undertaking a DCF, you might think you are putting in more 'science' than you actually have. All you have really said is share value is $1.47 at 1.5% perpetual growth and a 8.8% discount rate.


    Also, disc. I have ~3-4% of my portfolio in TGH.
    Last edited by Te Whetu; 26-09-2017 at 06:52 PM.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •