Tegel IPO

[winner69]

was in countdown last night,they had Ingham no16 chucks on special for $7.00.One has to presume they have come from aus.
My question would be how on earth can they process and ship them to supermarkets in NZ at that price.Should TGH be worried?

Aren't Inghams in NZ as well

[steveb]

yes winner just checked they are NZ chickens.Still a good price though

[hardt]

was in countdown last night,they had Ingham no16 chucks on special for $7.00.One has to presume they have come from aus.
My question would be how on earth can they process and ship them to supermarkets in NZ at that price.Should TGH be worried?

It is a big worry when I see my own mother buying 2 full size whole chickens from Inghams for $20.

Intuition tells me that Tegel might have trouble maintaining 52% market share this time round.

We will find out soon enough if I should have taken heed from the empirical evidence around me, or if sticking to my macro approach is the way to go for this kind of investment.

[silverblizzard888]

was in countdown last night,they had Ingham no16 chucks on special for $7.00.One has to presume they have come from aus.
My question would be how on earth can they process and ship them to supermarkets in NZ at that price.Should TGH be worried?

Ingham have poultry processing and hatcheries in NZ too. Probably 20-30% of their operation is based in NZ with more coming with expansion

[winner69]

Data extracted by myself from the Food Price Index monthly releases - http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...-releases.aspx

Page three in the excel spread sheet are the retail VWAP for certain food types.

Same data going back a bit further

Trend line looks good for the shoppers ...but not that good for likes of Tegel

No matter how they dress it up chicken breasts becoming a commodity

[TheHunter]

Same data going back a bit further

Trend line looks good for the shoppers ...but not that good for likes of Tegel

No matter how they dress it up chicken breasts becoming a commodity

Peak and trough theory says the trend in your picture has been reversed

[winner69]

Peak and trough theory says the trend in your picture has been reversed

We shall see

hard's chart had a August down tick on it ....

[hardt]

Same data going back a bit further

Trend line looks good for the shoppers ...but not that good for likes of Tegel

No matter how they dress it up chicken breasts becoming a commodity

When I get time, I would like to compare the consumer poultry price index - retail price - consumption growth in one chart.

Possibly throwing in Tegel's overall margins these past 4 years to see the correlation...

[winner69]

When I get time, I would like to compare the consumer poultry price index - retail price - consumption growth in one chart.

Possibly throwing in Tegel's overall margins these past 4 years to see the correlation...

Interesting

Production steadily increasing from JUne 14 to June 17 at rate of ~8% pa
Breast Chicken retail price declined resonably steadily at ~5.5% pa
Tegel Gross Margin by half year from H116 has been 25.1%, 25.5%, 23.1% and 24.1% in H217 (March)

Looks good on chart but can't post at the moment

[TheHunter]

Just remember a significant portion of sales is now coming from value added products, where commodity prices typically have a lower impact and where often substandard product can be turned into high margin.