Tegel IPO

[hardt]

Earnings out on Wednesday, May - October prices have been less volatile this time round...

Now all they had to do is more or less hold onto market share.

Remain cautious with this one though, I remain open to the idea a 5% volume lift is on the table.

	1H17	$ CHICKEN		TGH SP
31/05/16			$15.18	$1.65
30/06/16			$14.35	$1.65
31/07/16			$14.44	$1.67
31/08/16			$14.41	$1.71
30/09/16			$13.52	$1.64
31/10/16			$13.42	$1.54

	1H18	$ CHICKEN		TGH SP
31/05/17			$14.16	$1.10
30/06/17			$14.35	$1.15
31/07/17			$14.81	$1.24
31/08/17			$14.21	$1.25
30/09/17			$14.67	$1.27
31/10/17			$13.74	$1.38

Attachment 9300

[BlackCross]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...466/271171.pdf

[hardt]

Not incredible... lackluster exports.

[JeremyALD]

I'm sorry that's a bloody awful result. Last year was shocking and this year is even worse than that half. They are way behind prospectus forecasts. Glad I got out. Back down they go.

[JeremyALD]

So their target for FY17 was 44m NPAT which they missed by a country mile. Now they've produced 14.8m NPAT in the first half indicating they'll be lucky to beat last year's poor results given the second half of FY17 was a bit better. Meanwhile Inghams seems to be doing OK in this 'competitive marketplace' up 10% on their list price.

[hardt]

So their target for FY17 was 44m NPAT which they missed by a country mile. Now they've produced 14.8m NPAT in the first half indicating they'll be lucky to beat last year's poor results given the second half of FY17 was a bit better. Meanwhile Inghams since to be doing OK in this 'competitive marketplace' up 10% on their list price.

This thread has seen the prospectus about 100 times, a flat first half was expected - we got a minor underperformance.

Domestic market performed well, we can see where this result fell short, let us imagine export revenues were flat - we would have seen 2-4% EBITDA growth.

But for the export performance this was actually alright.. they say this was "as expected" not so sure about that though.

"higher costs have been incurred due to additional investment to drive growth, particularly in Australia as we expanded the export sales team, incurred higher distribution costs and established new product lines in new channels" - hmm

[JeremyALD]

This thread has seen the prospectus about 100 times, a flat first half was expected - we got a minor underperformance.

Domestic market performed well, we can see where this result fell short, let us imagine export revenues were flat - we would have seen 2-4% EBITDA growth.

But for the export performance this was actually alright.. they say this was "as expected" not so sure about that.

It was priced at $1.55 based on prospectus guidance which is at least 20% below. So we'll see how the market reacts today, but with little growth, the risk of Affinity selling out and a PE of 14 its hardly looking attractive.

[winner69]

This thread has seen the prospectus about 100 times, a flat first half was expected - we got a minor underperformance.

Domestic market performed well, we can see where this result fell short, let us imagine export revenues were flat - we would have seen 2-4% EBITDA growth.

But for the export performance this was actually alright.. they say this was "as expected" not so sure about that though.

"higher costs have been incurred due to additional investment to drive growth, particularly in Australia as we expanded the export sales team, incurred higher distribution costs and established new product lines in new channels" - hmm

Is this flat first half expectations your expectations ....or the markets

All the company was saying FY18 ebitda more than F17

[hardt]

It was priced at $1.55 based on prospectus guidance which is at least 20% below. So we'll see how the market reacts today, but with little growth, the risk of Affinity selling out and a PE of 14 its hardly looking attractive.

No doubt it is heading south today...

[hardt]

Is this flat first half expectations your expectations ....or the markets

All the company was saying FY18 ebitda more than F17

TGH remains solid and they have continued to show dominance in the NZ market...
I thought exports would remain stable, so in that regard it underperformed.
I am sure plenty of people shared my same thoughts, has me contemplating taking my profits and buying back later.

At the end of the day brokers will likely continue to support and funnel clients into TGH.

OUT AT 135