Tegel IPO

[Balance]

For me, the right price - assuming no change in fundamentals - is about 45 cents.

This is not an exciting fast growth company, but neither is it CBL or Dick Smiths. At the right price, I'd be a buyer.

No change in fundamentals - fair price is 75c.

It will get to 45c ONLY if there's further downgrades - I would assess as most likely.

Boneless chicken thighs on special at our local Mad Butcher for $6.99 per kg - used to be $11.99 a year ago.

[whatsup]

Charts - if enough punters believe them, there will be a bounce point.

I learned enough over the decades NEVER to buy into a downtrend.

Hmmmmmm ! I said the same (to myself ) with RBD when they were unloved at .50 in 2009 and look where they are today $7 + !!

[Stranger_Danger]

No change in fundamentals - fair price is 75c.

It will get to 45c ONLY if there's further downgrades - I would assess as most likely.

Boneless chicken thighs on special at our local Mad Butcher for $6.99 per kg - used to be $11.99 a year ago.

You're likely right about 75c being a fair price, but I would only buy a company like Tegel at an unfair price. There is nothing here to get excited about and entry price really matters - I don't want to pay a cent for pipe dreams or growth stories, because that isn't what I see for Tegel's future.

If I get an unfair price, sweet. If not, no problem. I strongly suspect the next three years will throw up a few other opportunities that meet my price criteria.

[Beagle]

No change in fundamentals - fair price is 75c.

It will get to 45c ONLY if there's further downgrades - I would assess as most likely.

Boneless chicken thighs on special at our local Mad Butcher for $6.99 per kg - used to be $11.99 a year ago.

No let up in ther chicken war is there !

You're likely right about 75c being a fair price, but I would only buy a company like Tegel at an unfair price. There is nothing here to get excited about and entry price really matters - I don't want to pay a cent for pipe dreams or growth stories, because that isn't what I see for Tegel's future.

If I get an unfair price, sweet. If not, no problem. I strongly suspect the next three years will throw up a few other opportunities that meet my price criteria.

Agree 100%. I'd get interested when boneless skinless chicken breasts are $4.99 a kilo so too speak. Plenty more pain to come yet for poor beleaguered shareholders who were sold a mange and flea ridden mutt at a pedigree show dog price.

[steveb]

I bought a free range chicken at my local Countdown recently,found the brand on it was Macro.So a quick google search later informed me that Macro was an exclusive brand to progressive enterprises,and the chickens were sourced from local New Zealand certified farms.
Now Tegel had this to say in their last update:-
Tegel is pleased to advise that it contracted a further three Free Range farms in January to allow for the continued growth of this market segment. The operational cost of these farms and associated services were not included in the FY18 forecast. These farms will start supplying free range birds for processing in mid-March. These farms will increase Tegel’s free range capacity by 34% in FY19.

Where do they think they are going to sell this increased capacity,clerly not to Progressive!

[Balance]

Agree 100%. I'd get interested when boneless skinless chicken breasts are $4.99 a kilo so too speak. Plenty more pain to come yet for poor beleaguered shareholders who were sold a mange and flea ridden mutt at a pedigree show dog price.

Best analogy so far!

Promised a rooster but delivered a plucked chicken - that's another take!

[Balance]

Hmmmmmm ! I said the same (to myself ) with RBD when they were unloved at .50 in 2009 and look where they are today $7 + !!

I bought RBD too - at 63c no less but sadly, sold out after doubling my money.

Reason for buying RBD was that there was a total management shakeup - Ted van Arkel replaced Bill 'Sleepwalking' Foster, following which Vicki Salmon 'left' after doing a disastrous job (I was at an investment presentation and she turned up half-incoherent after a big night before). The rest as they say is history.

TGH desperately needs a complete shakeup like RBD in 2007 but will it happen? Not when you have the principal shareholder with a different agenda from the other shareholders.

[Arbroath]

I bought RBD too - at 63c no less but sadly, sold out after doubling my money.

Reason for buying RBD was that there was a total management shakeup - Ted van Arkel replaced Bill 'Sleepwalking' Foster, following which Vicki Salmon 'left' after doing a disastrous job (I was at an investment presentation and she turned up half-incoherent after a big night before). The rest as they say is history.

TGH desperately needs a complete shakeup like RBD in 2007 but will it happen? Not when you have the principal shareholder with a different agenda from the other shareholders.

I don't think the principal shareholders agenda is to have the shares languish around 85c so you might see some action this year if the price-war carries on. Surely it is in the principal shareholders interests to change "management direction" if there is no real progress this year.

Failing to meet IPO forecasts etc is in the rear view mirror - they need to sort there strategy out for making $35m+ so they can engineer an exit at $1.20+

[Beagle]

I don't think the principal shareholders agenda is to have the shares languish around 85c so you might see some action this year if the price-war carries on. Surely it is in the principal shareholders interests to change "management direction" if there is no real progress this year.

Failing to meet IPO forecasts etc is in the rear view mirror - they need to sort there strategy out for making $35m+ so they can engineer an exit at $1.20+

You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

[Arbroath]

You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

Beagle - THL used to be spoken about like that too when they were below $1. Not saying in any way that TGH is anything like THL but some decent management should be able to restore profitability here from c. $25-27m to $35m and imho that would see the share price back well over $1.00. Lets check back in 12 months and see whats happened...